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WhyHighSchoolGraduationMatters

RussellW.RumbergerUniversityofCalifornia,SantaBarbara

THEIMPORTANCEOFHIGHSCHOOL

UrgencyforAmerica

Sothisisaproblemwecannotaffordtoacceptandwecannotaffordtoignore. Thestakesaretoohigh―forourchildren,foroureconomy,andforourcountry. It'stimeforallofustocometogether―parents,students,principalsandteachers,businessleadersandelectedofficialsfromacrossthepoliticalspectrum―toendAmerica'sdropoutcrisis.

―BarackObama,February24,2009

UrgencyforCaliforniaIfcurrenttrendspersist,in2025only35percentofworking-ageadultsinCaliforniawillhaveatleastabachelor’sdegree,but41percentofjobswillrequireatleastabachelor’sdegree.Thisequatestoashortfallofonemillioncollegegraduates.

Substantialimprovementsineducationaloutcomesareneededtomeetthedemandsoftomorrow’seconomyandensuretheeconomicprosperityofCalifornians.

Failuretomakeimprovementswillresultinaless-productiveeconomy,lowerincomesforresidents,lesstaxrevenueforthestate,andmoredependenceonsocialservices.

―PPIC,California2025(2012)

Clausenstudy(1993)

• CohortborninGreatDepressionandtrackeduntilage70

• Adultsuccess:obtainedmoreeducation,hadlowerratesofdivorce,hadmoreorderlycareers,achievedhigheroccupationalstatus,andexperiencedfewerlifecrises,suchasunemployment

• Bestpredictor:“planful competence,”acombinationofdependability,intellectualinvolvement,andself-confidence,thatwasevidentinhighschool

• “Predictingtoage70,there’snothingthatpredictsbetterthanwhattheywerelikeinhighschool”

Sawhill,etal.,(2012)PathwaystotheMiddleClass

• ExamineddatafromtheNationalLongitudinalStudyofYouth

• Followedchildrenfrom1986to2010

• Estimatedadultincomesatage40

• Middleclass:300%abovepovertyrate($68,000foramarriedcouplewithtwochildren)

• Developedlife-cyclemodeltoidentifysixstagesandindicatorsofsuccessforeachlifestage

BenchmarksforSuccess

Birth Age 5 Age 11 Age 19 Age 29 Age 40

LikelihoodofReachingMiddleClass

HIGHSCHOOLDROPOUTS

MyBackgroundonDropoutsResearch• “DroppingOutofHighSchool”(AERJ,1983)• EngagingSchools:FosteringHighSchoolStudent’sMotivationtoLearn (NRC,2005)• ImprovingMeasuresofHighSchoolDropout,Graduation,andCompletion

Rates: BetterData,BetterMeasures,BetterDecisions (NRC,2010)• DroppingOut:WhyStudentsDropOutofHighSchoolandWhatCanbeDone

AboutIt (HarvardUniversityPress,2011)Practice• Collaboratoronprovendropoutpreventionprogram,ALAS(1990-95)• DropoutPrevention:APracticeGuide (IES,2008)• PreventingDropoutsinSecondarySchools:APracticeGuide(IES,2017)Policy• StartedCaliforniaDropoutResearchProject (2006)• SolvingCalifornia’sDropoutCrisis (CDRP,2008)

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cdrp.ucsb.edu

CaliforniaDropoutResearchProjectActivities

• NewresearchwithafocusonCalifornia(researchstudies,policybriefs,statisticalbriefs,citydropoutprofiles)

• Policyrecommendationsfrompolicycommittee(policymakers,educators,researchers)

• Disseminationthroughmailings,website,presentations,media

DimensionsoftheDropoutCrisis

1. Magnitudeandtrends2. Consequences3. Causes4. Solutions

1.Theproblemissevere

WhatisaDropout?

• Dropoutasastatus• Dropoutasanevent• Dropoutasaprocess:

Enrollà Attendà Progressà Graduateâ

DropOut

WhatisaGraduate?

• Graduate earnsahighschooldiploma

• Completer earnsdiplomaorequivalency(GED)

DropoutFactories

• InUS,18%(2,007)ofregularandvocationalhighschoolsaccountfor50%ofthedropouts(“dropoutfactories”)

• InCalifornia,1%(25)ofallhighschoolsaccountfor21%ofdropouts

2.Thesocialandeconomiccostsarestaggering

ConsequencesofDroppingOut

• INDIVIDUALCONSEQUENCES– Lowerwages– Higherunemployment– Increasedcrime– Poorerhealth– Reducedpolitical

participation– Reducedintergenerational

mobility

• SOCIALCOSTS– Reducednationalandstate

income– Reducedtaxrevenues– Increasedsocialservices– Increasedcrime– Poorerhealth– Reducedpolitical

participation– Reducedintergenerational

mobility

ConsequencesofDroppingOut(ComparedtoHighSchoolGraduates)

• Lifetimeearningshalfamilliondollarslower

• 6timesmorelikelytobeincarcerated

• Lifeexpectancynineyearsless

• 2-3timesmorelikelytoreceiveMedicaid

• Morelikelytobepoor—poorchildren2-3timesmorelikelytobecomepooradults

EconomicImpact:Sacramento(Adults25-64yearsofage)

Dropouts Graduates

Employment/Population Ratio 47% 62%

Annual earnings $17,649 $26,664

Poverty rate 35% 22%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey

SacramentoDropouts

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011-15 American Community Survey

242 (52%) 317 (88%)

72 (15%)

17 (5%)

151(32%) 24 (7%)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Males(N=465) Females(N=358)

EmploymentStatusof16-19Year-oldDropouts,2011-15

Notinlaborforce Unemployed Employed

ComputingGainsfromImprovingGraduationRates

• Calculatenumberofdropouts,graduates,violentcrimeincity

• Estimateeconomiclosses

• Estimateeconomicandsocialbenefitsofcuttingnumberofdropoutsinhalf

Graduates,Dropouts,Crime

Sacramento California

Graduates, 2015-16 2,291 406,874

Dropouts,2015-16 310 48,118

Violentcrime,2010(homicides,aggravatedassaults) 2,380 101,875

LifetimeEconomicLossesfromOneYear’sDropouts,2015-16($)

PerDropout PerCohortSacramento

PerCohortCalifornia

State andlocalgovernment 1.3B

Healthcare costs 53,580 703,000 710M

Earnings(netoftaxes) 4,540 29.2M 4.5B

Crime (Victimcosts) 79,890 14.4M 1.9B

Otherlosses 69,800 10.8M 1.7B

TOTAL 391,910 53.1B 9.4B

EconomicBenefitsofReducingDropoutsbyHalf

Sacramento California

Lifetimeeconomicbenefits $26.5M $4.7B

Annual reductionsinhomicidesandaggravatedassaults 142 5,387

3.Thecausesarecomplex—relatedtostudents,families,schools,andcommunities

UnderstandingCauses• Causesvs.reasonsvs.predictors• Individual

– Demographic(unalterable)– Attitudesandbehaviors(alterable)

• Institutional:Family,School,Community– Resources– Practices

• Proximal(highschool)vs.distal(beforehighschool)

• Dropoutvs.achievement

ReasonsforDroppingOut

28

35

28

34

32

37

38

41

44

82

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Got a job

ANY JOB REASON

Pregnant

ANY FAMILY REASON

Could not keep up with schoolwork

Did not like school

Failing in school

Thought it would be easier to get GED

Missed too many days of school

ANY SCHOOL REASON

SOURCE: CDRP Statistical Brief 2

IndividualPredictors

• Academicachievement(failedclasses)• Poorattendance• Misbehavior• Loweducationalaspirations• Retention• Mobility

RiskIndicators

SOURCE: CDRP Research Report 14

StudentandSchoolPredictors(Predicted10th gradegraduationratesbystudentandschoolSES,2002)

74

83

87

80

86

91

85

89

93

70

75

80

85

90

95

Low Middle High

Individual SES

Perc

ent

School SES Low School SES Middle School SES High

SOURCE: Preliminary analysis of data from Education Longitudinal Study: 2002

TheDropoutProcess

Environment Beliefsandattitudes Engagement

DropoutAchievement

SOURCE: Engaging Schools (NRC 2005)

TheDropoutProcess

Environment

Beliefsaboutcompetenceandcontrol

(Ican)

Valuesandgoals(Iwantto)

Senseofbelonging(Ibelong)

CognitiveEngagement

BehavioralEngagement

EmotionalEngagement

DropoutAchievement

SOURCE: National Research Council, Engaging Schools (2005).

TheImportanceofNoncognitiveSkillsforSuccessfulSchoolPerformance

Farrington, et al. (2012)

38

21st CenturyCompetenciesforAdultSuccess

• CognitiveCompetencies– Cognitiveprocessesandstrategies– Knowledge– Creativity

• Intra-PersonalCompetencies– Intellectualopenness– Workethicandconscientiousness– Positivecoreself-evaluation

• Inter-PersonalCompetencies– Teamworkandcollaboration– Leadership

SOURCE: National Research Council. (2012). Education for Life and Work: Developing Transferable Knowledge and Skills in the 21st Century. 39

PredictorsofAdultOutcomes

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

Arrested Attend College Income

Cogntive factor Non-cogntive factor

SOURCE: Jackson (2013)

ImplicationsofResearchFindingsforPolicyandPractice

• Addressbothacademicandsocialneedsofstudents

• Startbeforehighschool—moreeffectiveandlesscostly

• Focusonbothindividualstudentsandtheinstitutionsthatsupportthem(families,schools,communities)

4.Therearearangeofpossiblesolutions

InterventionStrategies

1. Programmatic—focusonstudents– Supportprograms– Alternativeprogramsandschools

2. Comprehensive—focusonschools– Comprehensiveschoolreform– School/communitypartnerships

3. Systemic—focusonsystem– Statepolicy(e.g.,compulsoryschoolingage;graduation

requirements)– School/district/statecapacitybuilding

1.ProgrammaticSolutions

• Advantages– Easiertodesign,fund,implement,evaluate

• Disadvantages– Limitedimpact–onlyappropriatewheredropoutproblemissmall– Addstoprogrammatic“overload”atlocallevel– Limitednumberofprovenprograms(seeWhatWorksClearinghouse)

2.ComprehensiveSolutions

• Advantages– Potentialtoimpactmorestudents—moreappropriatein“dropout

factories”– Potentialtoimpactmultipleeducationaloutcomes(testscoresand

dropoutrates)

• Disadvantages– Moredifficulttoreformschools– Fewprovencomprehensiveschoolreformmodels—Comprehensive

SchoolReformQualityCenteridentified3outof18modelsthatsignificantlyimprovedgraduationrates

– Unclearwhatincentives,resources,andsupportneededtoimproveschools

3.SystemicSolutions

• Advantages– Potentialtoimpactmorestudents– Potentialtoimpactmultipleeducationaloutcomes(testscoresand

dropoutrates)

• Disadvantages– Moredifficulttoalterfamilies,schools,andcommunities– Mixedimpactfromsystemicreforms– Unclearwhatincentives,resources,andsupportneededtoimprove

school,district,andstatecapacity

ProvenInterventionsBenefit-Cost Ratio

Preschool 2.33

Preschool + Early Childhood 3.59

Class size reduction in grades K-3 (15 to 1)--All students--Low-income students

1.292.11

Raise teacher salaries 2.65

High school reform 4.47

SOURCE: Belfield and Levin (2007)

(releasedSeptember2008)

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IESPracticeGuide(USDepartmentofEducation,2008)

1. Utilizedatasystemstoidentifystudentsatriskfordroppingout

2. Assignadultadvocatestostudentsatriskofdroppingout

3. Provideacademicsupportandenrichmenttoimproveacademicperformance

4. Implementprogramstoimprovestudents’classroombehaviorandsocialskills

5. Personalizethelearningenvironmentandinstructionalprocess

6. Providerigorousandrelevantinstructiontobetterengagestudentsinlearningandprovidetheskillsneededtograduateandtoservethemaftertheyleaveschool

CDRPPolicyReport(releasedFebruary27,2008)

• Policystrategy—pressureandsupport

• Pressure—modifyaccountabilitysystem,reportmoreusefuldata

• Support—buildcapacityofschools,districts,state—ratherthanimplementingprograms

• Willimproveachievementandotherstudentoutcomes

• Improvementrequiresfiscal,human,andsocialresources

WhattheStateShouldDo1. Fixtheaccountabilitysysteminordertomaintainpressureandtoallow

sufficienttimetoaddresstheproblem.

2. Collectandreportmoreusefuldataondropoutsandthestate’sprogressinimprovinggraduationrates.

3. Develophighschoolreformstandardsandcreate“lighthouse”districtstoimplementtheminschoolswithhighdropoutrates.

4. Undertakemiddleschoolreform.

5. Makestrategicinvestmentsinprovendropoutpreventionstrategiestargetingthemostdisadvantagedstudentsandschools.

6. Re-examinehighschoolgraduationrequirements.

WhatDistrictsShouldDo

1. Marshalthewillofthedistrictandcommunitytoaddressthedropoutproblem.

2. Adoptprovenstrategiestokeepstudentsinschoolandsupporttheirsuccessfulgraduation.

3. Developastructured,participatory,andtimedprocessforimplementingthesestrategiesinalltargetedschools.

4. Developandusedatatomonitortheimplementationofthestrategiesandtomodifytheimplementationplan.

5. Partnerwithoutsidesupportorganizationstoidentifystrategiesandtodevelopandmonitorimplementation.

WhatSchoolsShouldDo

1. Createapersonalizedlearningenvironmentforbothstudentsandteachers.

2. Provideacademicandsocialsupportsforstudents.

3. Providerigorousandmeaningfulinstruction.

4. Createconnectionstotherealworld.

ImplementingRecommendations

• Choosingbetweenstrategies,targetedprograms,schoolwideprograms

• Selectingstrategiesandprogramsthatarebotheffectiveandcosteffective

• Matchingstrategiesandprogramswithlocalcontext—populations,resources,capacity

• Evaluatingoutcomesoflocallyimplementedprograms

WhatElseisNeeded?

1. Redefinehighschoolsuccess

2. Provideincentivestoeducateallstudents

3. Buildthecapacityoftheeducationalsystem

4. Desegregateschools

5. Strengthenfamiliesandcommunities

Challenges• Nostatewidedatasystem• Nostaterepositoryforprovenprogramsandpractices

• Existingmodels(e.g.,randomizedcontroltrials)forconductingevaluationstime-consumingandcostly

• Littleinterestorincentivesatlocalleveltoadoptprovenprograms

• Littlecapacityinstate,counties,anddistrictstoevaluatelocalreformeffortsandstatepolicyinitiatives

Recommendations

• Redefinehighschoolsuccess– Alteraccountabilitysystem(e.g.CollegeReadyIndicatorSystem)

• Provideincentivestoeducateallchildren– Measureandreward5-yearand6-yeargraduationrates– Supportandrecognizedropoutrecovery

• Developmorepathwaystohighschoolandcollege– Alternativehighschools(e.g.BigPictureLearning)– Highschool/collegeschools(EarlyCollegeHighSchool)– Three-yearbachelor’sdegreepathway(dualenrollment,AP)

• Develop,evaluate,anddisseminatecost-effectivestudentsupportprograms– Social-emotionalprograms– College-careerpreparationandcounselingprograms– Ninthgradebasicskillsclasses

Recommendations• Buildthecapacityoftheeducationalsystem

– Developandsupportdistrictpartnershipsandnetworkedimprovementcommunities

– Buildinter-segmentaldatasystem(e.g.,Cal-PASSPlus)– Buildlocalandstate-levelcapacitytoidentify“evidence-based”(costs

andeffectiveness)programsandpractices(e.g.,CenterforBenefit-CostStudiesinEducation;WashingtonStateInstituteforPublicPolicy)

• Desegregateschools• Strengthenfamiliesandcommunities

ImportanceSystemImprovementThesinglefundamentalchangeprinciplefromoursystemchangeworkisthis:peoplelearnbestandmostfromothersdoingsimilarworkandgettingsuccess.Therefore,Californiashouldturnitsattentiontoenablingschools,districts,andcharterorganizationstolearnfromeachother.

Fullan andRodriquez(2017,p.17).

Farrington, C. E., Roderick, M., Allensworth, E., Ngaoka, J., Keyes, T. S., Johnson, D. W., & Beechum, N. O. (2012). Teaching adolescents to become learners :The role of noncognitive factors in shaping school performance. Chicago: Consortium on Chicago School Research, University of Chicago.

National Research Council, Committee on Increasing High School Students’ Engagement and Motivation to Learn. (2005). Engaging Schools: Fostering High School Students’ Motivation to Learn. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

Roderick, M., Kelly-Kemple, T., Johnson, D. W., & Beechum, N. O. (2014). Preventable failure: Improvements in long-term outcomes when high schools focused on the ninth grade. Chicago: Consortium on Chicago School Research, University of Chicago.

Rumberger, R. W. (2008). Solving California's Dropout Crisis. Report of the California Dropout Research Project Policy Committee. Santa Barbara California Dropout Research Project, University of California, Santa Barbara. Retrieved May 1, 2011, from http://cdrp.ucsb.edu/dropouts/pubs_policyreport.htm

Rumberger, R. W. (2011). Dropping Out: What Students Drop Out of School and What Can be Done About It. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

References

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Websites

cdrpsb.org

whatworks.ed.gov