View
30
Download
0
Category
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
WHAT JUST HAPPENED AND WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?. Dennis K. Winters Chief, Office of Economic Advisors Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development. December 3, 2010. WELCOME. FIRST, YOU HAVE TO UNDERSTAND WISCONSIN’S ECONOMY. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
WHAT JUST HAPPENEDWHAT JUST HAPPENEDANDAND
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
Dennis K. WintersChief, Office of Economic AdvisorsWisconsin Department of Workforce Development
December 3, 2010
2
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
WELCOME
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
http://flowingdata.com/2010/03/02/where-bars-trump-grocery-stores/
FIRST, YOU HAVE TO UNDERSTANDWISCONSIN’S ECONOMY
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
HOW BAD
WAS IT?
5
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
• Longest recession since the Great Depression
• Four negative U.S. GDP quarters in a row
• Global GDP declined
• The U.S. and Japan were in recession at same time
• Personal consumption expenditures were down 3 out of four quarters, with the one registering just +0.1%
HOW BAD WAS IT?THINGS THAT NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE
6
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY PLUNGED U.S. AND ESPECIALLY THE MIDWEST
Source: Chicago Fed, OEA
Manufactuing Production Indexes
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan-73 Jan-82 Jan-91 Jan-00 Jan-09
MidwestU.S.
7
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
Total NonFarm Y/Y Job Growth(unadjusted)
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
Jan-
91
Jan-
92
Jan-
93
Jan-
94
Jan-
95
Jan-
96
Jan-
97
Jan-
98
Jan-
99
Jan-
00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Jan-
04
Jan-
05
Jan-
06
Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Gro
wth
ove
r 12
Mon
ths
Wisconsin
U.S.
EMPLOYMENT DROPPED PRECIPITIOUSLY JOB LOSSES WORSE THAN 1981 RECESSION
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, LMI, OEA
8
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
UNEMPLOYMENT CLIMBED NOT QUITE TO LEVELS OF 1981 RECESSION
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, LMI, OEA
Unemployment Rates(seasonally adjusted)
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Per
cen
t
Wisconsin
U.S.
9
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
Source: U.S. DOL, WI Dept. of Workforce Development; Local Area Unemployment Statistics and National Bureau of Economic Research
WORKERS DROPPED OUT OF THE WORKFORCE “MARGINAL” WORKER
U6 - U3 Difference
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
J-05
M-0
5
S-0
5
J-06
M-0
6
S-0
6
J-07
M-0
7
S-0
7
J-08
M-0
8
S-0
8
J-09
M-0
9
S-0
9
J-10
Jan 2010 U3 = 9.7%U6 = 17.6%
10
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
Average Weeks Unemployed
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan 1
948
Jan 1
953
Jan 1
958
Jan 1
963
Jan 1
968
Jan 1
973
Jan 1
978
Jan 1
983
Jan 1
988
Jan 1
993
Jan 1
998
Jan 2
003
Jan 2
008
Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Bureau of Economic Research
DURATION OF FINDING NEW JOBIS PROTRACTED
11
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
WORKER ANGST DIDN’T DECREASEJUST SHIFTED
Source: UI, OEA
CUIC State and Fed Extentions
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2008w1 2008w14 2008w27 2008w40 2009w1 2009w14 2009w27 2009w40 2010w1 2010w14 2010w27 2010w40
WI CUIC
Fed Exts
Total
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
YES VIRGINIA,WE ARE IN
RECOVERY MODE, BUT…
13
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
Industry Indexes
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
Non-ManufacturingManufacturing
BOTH MAJOR SECTORS RECOVERING MANUFACTURING AND NON-MANUFACTURING
Source: St. Louis Fed, OEA
14
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
• GDP
• DJIA
• JOBS
HOW DO YOU SPELLRECOVERY?
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
Real GDP Growth
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
2000q1 2002q1 2004q1 2006q1 2008q1 2010q1
Pe
rce
nt
HOW DO YOU SPELL RECOVERY?GDP; Five positive quarters, Q3 up 2.5%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, OEA
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
HOW DO YOU SPELL RECOVERY?DJIA; UP 72% SINCE MARCH 9, 2009
Source: http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx
17
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
HOW DO YOU SPELL RECOVERY?JOBS; STILL DOWN 150,000
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, LMI, OEA
Wisconsin Total Nonfarm Jobs (NSA)
2,600,000
2,650,000
2,700,000
2,750,000
2,800,000
2,850,000
2,900,000
2,950,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007200820092010
18
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
JOB RECOVERY WILL TAKE TIME
Source: BLS, OEA
Job Losses in Recent Recessions - Wisconsin - # of Months Since Recession Declaration
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61
Source: DWD, OEA, X12 adjustment of not seasonally adjusted CES via U.S. BLS
Job
Loss
es R
elati
ve to
Pea
k M
onth
1981 Recession 1990 Recession2001 Recession Current Recession
19
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
EVEN JOB NUMBERS CAN BE DECEIVINGTHE UNDEREMPLOYED
20
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
CAUTION STILL REIGNSMANAGING YEAR-END COSTS
21
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
NEW CLAIMS MOVING SIDEWAYSINDUSTRIES CONTINUE TO ADJUST
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
GDP = C + I + G + (I-M)
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
C = CONSUMPTION
24
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
PERSONAL INCOMENOT SNAPPING BACK LIKE BEFORE
25
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
RETAIL SALES CLIMBINGWHAT WILL BE THE NEW NORMAL
26
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
EVEN WITH LOW MORTGAGE RATESNEW HOME SALES AREN’T RESPONDING
27
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
Source: Wisconsin Department of Revenue
HOUSING MARKETSWON’T BE AN ECONOMIC DRIVER
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Housing Starts Housing Permits (3-Month Moving Average)
U.S. Housing Starts and Permits
Tho
usan
ds o
f un
its
28
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
WHERE HAVE ALL THE YUPPIES GONE?WHO WILL BUILD A NEW HOUSE NOW?
29
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
TAKE MY HOUSEPLEASE
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
MORTGAGE RISKSTILL HAS CHALLENGES PENDING
31
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
ALL SECTORS OVERBUILTRESIDENTIAL, COMMERCIAL, HEAVY
32
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
INTEREST IS LESS DISMALBUT STILL CONTRACTING
33
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
AUTO SALES LIMITED CONTRIBUTION
34
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
FUTURE UNCERTAINTYDAMPENS CONSUMER MOOD
35
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
IS THE PHILLIPS CURVE BACK?IF YES, THEN FED HAS LEEWAY
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
I = INVESTMENT
37
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
Source: William R. Emmons, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, May 7, 2010 talk on the District II Economic Outlook.
LOW INTEREST RATESGAVE INCENTIVES TO BORROW
Domestic government sector
All sectors
38
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Data Download Program
Reserves of Depository Institutions(billions of dollars)
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
Jan 2
008
Apr
2008
Jul 2008
Oct
2008
Jan 2
009
Apr
2009
Jul 2009
Oct
2009
Jan 2
010
Required Reserves
Total reserves
EXTENDING CREDITBANKS ARE RETICENT TO LEND FUNDS
39
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
Yield Spread: BAA Corporate Rate minus 10 Year Treasury Rate
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Source: Prof. Don Nichols, Emeritus
STILL UNCERTAINABOUT ECONOMIC STRENGTH
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
MANAGING RISK WHERE IS THE INCENTIVE TO EXPAND
41
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
CORPORATE PROFITS LOOK HEALTHYMOSTLY DUE TO COST CUTTING
42
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
Corp Profits as % National Income
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Source: Prof. Don Nichols, Emeritus
FROM WHERE ELSEWILL PRIVATE INVESTMENT COME
43
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
DEMAND STILL INSUFFICIENT TO EXPANDWILL KEEP INFLATION AT BAY
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
G = GOVERNMENT
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/115525-the-scariest-chart-ever?source=article_sb_popular
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
http://money.cnn.com/news/specials/storysupplement/stimulus-tracker/index.html
QE1 TRACK IT
47
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
• TARP– AIG– AGP– ASSP– AITP– CPP– CBLI– MHA– PPIP– TIP
QE2 = MORE MONEYTO BE APPLIED WHERE?
• Fed Reserve Rescue Efforts– ABCPMMMFL– BoALLB– BSB– CLLB– CPFF– FEDS– GSEDP– GSEMBSP– MMIFF– PDCF– TABSLF
– TAF– TSLF– US Bond purchases
48
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
• Federal Stimulus Programs– ESA of 2008– UIBE– SLG– ARRA– ATVMP– CARS
QE2 = MORE MONEY (continued)
TO BE APPLIED WHERE?
• AIG– Asset purchases– Bridge loan– Gov’t stakes in subs– TARP
• FDIC– 2008 Bank takeovers– 2009 Bank takeovers
49
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
• Other Financial Initiatives– CUDIG– MMGP– NCUA Bailout of credit unions– USFCUI– TLGP
QE2 = MORE MONEY (continued again)
TO BE APPLIED WHERE?
• Other Housing Initiatives– Fannie– Freddie– FHA – MHAI
$11 trillion committed $3 trillion invested
http://money.cnn.com/news/storysupplement/economy/bailouttracker/#TARP
50
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
Yield Curve: Yield on Ten Year Treasury minus yield on One Year Treasury
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Source: Prof. Don Nichols, Emeritus
LONG-TERM RATES RELATIVELY HIGHFED TRYING TO BRING THEM DOWN
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
I-M = NET EXPORTS
52
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
Source: Wisconsin Department of Revenue
LOWER U.S. DEMANDHELPING HOLD DOWN TRADE IMBALANCE
$-70
$-60
$-50
$-40
$-30
$-20
2007 2008 2009 2010
U.S. Goods and Services Trade BalanceB
illi
ons
53
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
LACK OF U.S. DEMANDHELPING HOLD DOWN TRADE IMBALANCE
54
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
DOLLAR DROPPINGWHOSE SIDE ARE YOU ON?
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
GDP = C + I + G + (I-M)
ADD IT ALL UPAND …
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
U.S Gross Domestic Product(Real 2005 U.S. Dollars)
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000B
illio
ns
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
RECOVERINGBUT STILL LOWER
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; OEA
BIGGEST DIP, SLOWEST RECOVERYTWELVE Q’s SINCE LAST PEAK, STILL NOT BACK
Time from Peak to New High
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13Quarters
% o
f p
revi
ou
s G
DP
pea
k
19481953195719601969197319801981199020012007
58
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
IN CONCLUSIONTORTOISE RECOVERY
Slow but sturdy recovery Low inflation due to excess capacity Employment breach in 2012? Strength of recovery subject to consumer
income and wealth uncertainty
Risks Financial workouts put too much strain on
economy. European Union fiscal problems wash
over the global financial markets. High unemployment saps consumption.
59
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
So, what will be the biggest socio-economic
policy challenge in the next 20 years?
60
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
ELDERLY NUMBERS WILL SWELLWIDEN THE SIDEWALKS WILL YA !?
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
QUANTITY
62
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
WISCONSIN’S WORKFORCE GROWTHBECOMES FLAT
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA
Wisconsin Population and Labor Force
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
( x 1
000
)
POPULATION
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
63
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
BLS RAISED LFPR FOR THE FUTUREPARTICULARLY FOR OLDER COHORTS
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of the Census, OEA
Changes in LFPR by Age Cohort
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+
Constant2000201020202030
64
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
WISCONSIN’S WORKFORCE HIGHER LFPRs OFFER LIMITED GAINS
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA
Worker Difference from Census 2000
(20,000)
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030
New BLS Plus 3% New BLS Plus 3% New BLS Plus 3%
65
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
LITTLE CHANGES EVEN WITH HIGHER LFPRRETIREMENTS SWAMP PARTICIPATION
Source: Bureau of the Census, DOA, OEA
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
PopulationLabor force base caseBLS prj. changeElevated LFPR of 3 percentage points
Wisconsin Population and Labor Force
66
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
NURSING WORKFORCE IN WISCONSIN DEMOGRAPHICS AT WORK
Source: Office of Economic Advisors
Wisconsin Nurses by Age
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
< 25 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75 +
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
QUALITY
68
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
Age Groups:
15-2425-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
over 75
Education Categories:
Less than high schoolHigh school graduateSome college, no degreeAssociate degree,Bachelor’s degree,Graduate or Professional degree
Income Categories:
EarningsTransfer paymentsDividends (interest, rent, and other income)Total income
Data: March Supplement of CPS, 1992-2007 (via IPUMS) Population projections from DOA
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
Source: 1992-2007 CPS (Wisconsin) & DOA Pop Projections
Year: 20007.6%
10.3%
82.1%Earnings
Transfers
Dividends Year: 2035
18.5%
6.9% 74.6%
Income stream shifts with age from earned income to transfer payments.
AS BOOMERS RETIREINCOME COMPONENTS CHANGE
Real escalation in transfer payments is near zero – essentially eliminating gains from this income source.
70
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
Source: 1992-2007 CPS (Wisconsin) & DOA Pop Projections
Aggregate. Real IncomeHistoric 1992-2007, and Projected 2010-2035
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032
Bil
lio
ns
Historic
Version 2.0
AGGREGATE REAL INCOME GROWTHFLATTENS WITH WORKFORCE AND SOURCE
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
UNDER BASE CASE ASSUMPTIONS PCI DECREASES STARTING IN 2015
Graph 1: Population vs Agg Real Income Change, 1995-2035
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
Pop 15+ ChangeAgg Income Change (Base)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of the Census, OEA
72
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
0.0%
25.0%
50.0%
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
2028
2031
2034
0.0%
25.0%
50.0% Less HSHSSomeAABAGrad
0.0%
25.0%
50.0%
0.0%
25.0%
50.0% Less HSHSSomeAABAGrad
15-24
45-5435-44
25-34
LAYING IN EDUCATION PROJECTIONSTO ACCOUNT FOR ATTAINMENT TRENDS
73
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
Source: 1992-2007 CPS (Wisconsin) & DOA Pop Projections
Aggregate Real IncomeHistoric 1992-2007, and Projected 2010-2035
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032
Bil
lio
ns
Historic
Version 2.0
Version 3.0
WE GET A BOOST IN PERSONAL INCOMEFROM MORE EDUATION AND TRAINING
74
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
THE INCOME BOOST ONLY DELAYSTHE PCI LOSS FOR A FEW YEARS
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of the Census, OEA
Graph 1: Population vs Agg Real Income Change, 1995-2035
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
Pop 15+ ChangeAgg Income Change (Base)Agg Income Change (New )
75
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
WORKFORCE TRENDSARE:
Unprecedented – we have never faced a declining workforce before;
Assured – demographics will change little;
Largely unalterable – demographics and migration patterns do not change abruptly.
76
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
RAMIFICATIONS OF WORKFORCE TRENDSARE:
Potentially devastating – without sufficient productivity gains the state’s economy will stagnate;
Necessitating a focus on talent – large investments in education and training are needed; best ROI is early childhood
Requiring match – talent supply and industry demand must be matched or you lose both.
77
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
QUESTIONS?
78
Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook
December 3, 2010December 3, 2010
Wisconsin Economics Association
Dennis Winters
Phone: 608-267-3262
Email: dennis.winters@dwd.wisconsin.gov
Website: www.dwd.wisconsin.gov
OEA website: www.dwd.wisconsin.gov/oea
CONTACT INFORMATION
Recommended