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User Conference 11/14/13
Storm Impact
Scott MorrisEarth Science Associates
Long Beach, CA
2013 User ConferenceHosted by Maersk – Houston
November 14, 2013
Goals
• Predict if a hurricane will enter the Gulf of Mexico
User Conference 11/14/13
• Predict lost production– Platform– Gulf Wide
• Update predictions using the newest data
Determining if a Hurricane Will Enter the Gulf
• Use existing data on storms since 1950– We have path segments for storms since
1922 but they are not named – We end up with 631 storm paths
• Given a storm’s current position, can we decide if it will enter the Gulf of Mexico?
User Conference 11/14/13
Path of All Named Storms
User Conference 11/14/13
Area of Interest
User Conference 11/14/13
Storms that Entered the Gulf
User Conference 11/14/13
Grid Extending to Barbados
User Conference 11/14/13
10 Storms Total5 entering the Gulf
Probability of Entering Gulf
User Conference 11/14/13
Wind Speeds
User Conference 11/14/13
Platforms Directly Affected
User Conference 11/14/13
User Conference 11/14/13
Predicting Gulf Wide Losses
• Regression analysis– Current production and wind speed should
be able to predict the loss of production caused by a hurricane
– Experimenting with different models– Production is taken from platforms in the
path of the hurricane
User Conference 11/14/13
Platforms 20 kilometers from path
User Conference 11/14/13
Preliminary Regression Results
User Conference 11/14/13
Problems and Refinement
• Multiple hurricanes occurring in the same month
– Currently treating these as a single hurricane
• Varying wind speeds not taken into account
• Platforms directly in the path are weighted the same as those 20 kilometers away
User Conference 11/14/13
Workflow
User Conference 11/14/13
Determine if current hurricane is likely to enter the Gulf
Determine platforms directly affected by Hurricane and create charts and tables
Make prediction for Gulf Wide production lost based on hurricane path
Upload findings and charts to website
Check for updated data from NOAA
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