Thinking in Systems & Visioneering...Thinking in Systems & Visioneering Joon Kim...

Thinking in Systems & Visioneering

Joon Kim joon@snu.ac.kr

Complex Systems Science Lab., Dept. of Landscape Architecture and Rural Systems Engineering

Interdisciplinary Program in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

Seoul National University Seoul, 151-921 Korea

Seoul National University

Lectures at Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology 24-27 February 2014

Our Concerns

• Something is not right with our society’s scientific approach to dealing with the world

• Ecological-societal Systems bear severe consequences of accelerating entropic juggernaut in the form of climate change and global capitalism. Juggernaut’ Metaphor - the sacrifice we must pay for dissipating energy not only by unstoppable consumptive use of energy resources but also by living systems for the maintenance of their order.

• Real Problem ? – the singularity of our concept of the “right answer”

NUIST, 24-27 February 2014 2

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PURPOSE ( why? )

• To help awaken the participants (sleeping giants)

to envision a sustainable world and to fulfill it

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OBJECTIVES ( what & how? )

• Re-Emphasize the Significance of a Clear Vision and its Engineering towards Local, Regional and Global

Sustainability

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1. Why Systems Thinking? 2. What is it? 3. Fundamentals 4. Nature of Sustainability 5. Complex Systems 6. Visioneering 7. Concluding Remarks

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1. Why is Systems Thinking

important?

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WASA 1628

Swedish Royal Warship

Lessons learned from the WASA Tipping Point / Threshold

Excessive schedule pressure with changes upon changes Lack of documented plans and technical details Excessive innovation & more Lack of scientific methods Ignoring the obvious

Seoul National University

Lessons from the WASA

Visioning only (top-down command/control) Lack of (1) casting vision convincingly;

(2) celebrating vision systematically; (3) embracing vision personally

Lack of Visioneering – a triad of (1) governance, (2) management & (3) monitoring

Seoul National University

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The Emerging Concern • "Human beings and the natural world are on

collision course. Human activities inflict harsh and often irreversible damage on the environment and on critical resources. If not checked, many of our current practices put at serious risk the future . . . and may so alter the living world that it will be unable to sustain life in the manner that we know. Fundamental changes are urgent if we are to avoid the collision our present course will bring about.”

- "World Scientists' Warning to Humanity" signed by more than 1,600 scientists, including 102 Nobel laureates The Limits to Growth: The 30 year Update (Meadow et al, 2007)

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Seoul National University

“ Lack of Three Basics ”

(1) Understanding of the complex ecological-societal systems

(2) Resilience and capacity building to perform the transformation needed

(3) Willingness to embrace and implement changes

Bottlenecks to Sustainability

2. What is Systems Thinking?

• System - an interconnected set of elements that is coherently organized in a way that achieves something

• Elements, Interconnections, and Purpose

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First of all, we must define "System"

Systems Thinking is

• A discipline for seeing ’wholes'

• Framework for seeing ‘interrelationship’ rather than linear cause and effect;

• Seeing ‘processes’ of change rather than ‘snapshots’

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Systems . . . • more than the sum of its parts

• many interconnections operate through the flow of information

• the least obvious part, purpose, is often the most crucial determinant of the system's behavior which reveals itself as a series of events over time

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3. FUNDAMENTALS In SYSTEMS THINKING

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Sine quo non !

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Living in a World of Systems

• Get the beat of the system • Expose your mental models to daylight • Honor, respect & distribute information • Use language with care and enrich it

with systems concepts • Pay attention to what is important, not just

what is quantifiable • Make feedback policies for systems

• Go for the good of the whole

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Living in a World of Systems

• Listen to the wisdom of the systems • Locate the responsibility within the system

• Stay humble - stay a learner • Celebrate complexity • Expand time horizons • Defy the disciplines

• Expand the boundary of caring • Never forget ‘ why ‘ (the purpose)

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Business & Society

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“ The Fifth Discipline ”

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Systems Thinking

Personal Mastery

Mental Models

Team Learning

Building Shared Vision

continually clarifying and

deepening personal vision

worldviews, how to understand the bias of Weltanschauung

the capacity to hold a shared picture of the future to create

(a key to success)

the fundamental organization unit, transmit knowledge & practice of agora in which focused creativity flourishes

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Purpose gives birth to Vision

1. Detecting Error and Illusion: Education is BLIND to the realities of human knowledge, its systems, infirmities, difficulties, propensity to error & illusion 2. Principles of Pertinent Knowledge: Fragmented learning divided up into disciplines hinders to grasp fundamental problems, connect parts and wholes; must teach how to grasp mutual relations/reciprocal influence b/w parts & the whole in a complex world 3. Teaching the Human Condition: Must teach what being human means, the connection between the complex unity and diversity of all that is human

7 Complex Lessons in Education for the Future (UNESCO, 2001)

Seoul National University

4. Earth Identity: Our future is now situated on a planetary scale. Teach planet under pressure, global trajectory, earth citizenship, planetary stewardship 5. Confronting Uncertainty: End of certainty and dominance of determinist conception, need to teach uncertainties emerging in the physical sciences (e.g., microphysics, thermodynamics, cosmology), the sciences of biological evolution, historical sciences 6. Understanding Each Other: Understanding is both a means and end of human communication, and yet we do not teach understanding (to know as we are known)

7 Complex Lessons in Education for the Future (UNESCO, 2001)

Seoul National University

7 Complex Lessons in Education for the Future (UNESCO, 2001)

7. Ethics for the Human Genre: Education should lead to an ‘anthropo-ethics’ through recognition of the ternary quality of the human condition: a human being is an ‘individual ↔ society ↔ species’ i.e. a joint development of individual autonomy, community participation and awareness of belonging to the human species. Education should contribute to an ‘establishment of a relationship of mutual control between society and individual’ and ‘fulfillment of humanity as a planetary community’ (need to teach ontology, epistemology, pedagogy & ethics)

Seoul National University

4. Sustainability Nature and Definition

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since Rio Declaration & Agenda 21…

Focus has been on “Sustainability” Definitions have evolved … Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising

the ability of future generations to meet their needs (WCED 1987); Cultural Adaptation made by society as it becomes aware of the

emerging necessity of non-growth (Daly 1993); Process that is farseeing enough, flexible enough, and wise enough not

to undermine the social-ecological systems of support (Meadows et al. 2004);

Possibility and Destiny that human and nature will prosper together forever (Kim & Oki 2011).

Regional & global partnership to conserve, protect, restore the health & integrity of the biosphere

Seoul National University

Sustainability / Complexity Sciences

have emerged as vibrant fields of education and research that transcend the disciplinary boundaries and focus on understanding the dynamics of complex “ecological-societal systems (ESS).”

Sustainable future will require purpose-driven transformation of society at all scales, guided by “Visioneering” with resilience-based systems thinking that science can provide

Seoul National University

Seoul National University

Ecological-Societal System

ESS: A combined system of social and ecological components and drivers that interact and give rise to results, which cannot be understood based on social or ecological considerations alone. A pivotal hinge to connect these two different systems in dimensionality & complexity is needed (e.g. thermodynamics)

Complex system: Large networks of components give

rise to complex collective behavior, sophisticated information processing,

and adaptation via learning

5. Complex Systems • Resilience: The capacity to absorb disturbance

and to sustain and develop its fundamental structure, function, identity, and feedback as result of recovery or reorganization in new context

• Leaping back to the original purpose

• Focuses on dynamic interplay between periods of gradual and sudden change and how to adapt to and shape change.

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‘Resilience’ – a system’s capacity to absorb disturbance / surprise

( resilience, adaptability, transformability )

Human Lives

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1. Birth and Dependence

2. Season of Independence

3. Inter- dependence

4. Death & New Beginning

From To

Human EXTERNAL to the system

INTRINSIC, both drivers and beneficiaries

PAST is a guide to the future

NON-stationary world, unexpected variability

Predicting, assuming FIXED systems

EVOLVING, complex adaptive systems

Learning from studying LOCAL to extrapolate

COMPARATIVE learning across scales/along gradients

( adapted from Sivapalan, 2006 Water Res. Res. )

Paradigm Shift

From To Analyst at small scales or synthesist of large scales

Both Analyst & Synthesist across scales

Observation, prediction & management SEPARATE

INTERACTIVE learning with feedback & updating

Strong SEPARATION between disciplines

CONSILIENCE: Integration into a HOLISTIC teaching

Focus: Teaching established solution to current problem

EVOLVING adaptive skills to solving new problems

Paradigm Shift

Thinking in Systems, Complexity

• We do not seek prediction, control, right answer or efficiency

• We seek understanding, adaptability & resilience • Role of expert shifts from ‘problem solving’ to ‘an exploration of possibilities’ from ‘giving correct advice’ to ‘sharing information on options & trade-offs’

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6. Visioneering with Systems Thinking

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Engineering of Vision • Vision : Latin "videre" (to see) - the ability to

see, discern, and focus

• Engineering : skillful direction and creative application of experiences and scientific principles to develop process, structure, and/or equipment

• Visioneering requires the synergy of Inspiration + Conviction + Action + Determination + Completion

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Vision starts with Concerns

It is a clear mental picture of what "could be", inspired by the passion that it "should be"

The trouble with our age is all signposts and

no destination

• More than 4 billion people live visionless and dreamless life!

• Scientists and engineers are no exception.

• Vision is a product of purpose and different from goals and objectives

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Visioneering 1. Governance : the continuing process of providing a vision, learning, resolving trade-offs and planning to adapt to the unfolding situation

2. Management : operationalization of the vision, translating the vision into reality by developing & implementing strategies to promote/discourage specific forms of self-organization in the context of the communal vision and plan

3. Monitoring : The synthesis of the observations to a narrative and provides feedback that serves as the source of learning required for successful adaptation

Kim and Oki (2011)

Visioneering is simple and easier said than done. It should be, but won't be!

Without someone's tenacious determination not only to see it through but also to live it through to the end, vision will not stick.

Inner resilience and strength of character + moral authority

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Life is brutal on Vision!

7. Summary

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• "Question of leadership, ethic, vision & courage - properties not of computer but of the human heart and soul"

• It is all about maintaining the integrity of the combined ecological-societal systems. Integrity is preserved when the system’s self-organizing processes are preserved, something that happens naturally if we maintain the context for self-organization in ecological systems, which, in turn, will maintain the context for the continued well-being of our societal systems

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Visioneering vs. Visioning

Seoul National University

Abandonment of the spirit

溫故知新 “Keep cherishing old wisdom & understanding

while continually learning & teaching

new (knowledge) to serve others”

Fundamental Bottleneck in Asia