View
1
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
The Shock of the New? Public opinion in 2015-20
ben.page@ipsos.com @benatipsosmori
Ben Page , Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI
2 2
Most predictions are wrong
The election, the polls, and
aftermath
Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI
Ben.page@ipsos.com @benatipsosmori
Taking a hammering…
Before I begin..
don’t forget the
Exit Poll did
well…
The Exit Poll did extraordinarily well -
Conservative Party
Labour Party
Liberal Democrats
SNP
UKIP
Green Party
Others
Exit poll - 316 Result - 331
Exit poll - 239 Result - 232
Exit poll - 10 Result - 8
Exit poll - 58
Result - 21
Exit poll - 2 Result - 1
Exit poll - 2 Result - 1
Result - 56
Exit poll - 23
Source: Ipsos MORI/GfK NOP for BBC/ITV News/Sky News
Asking what did do,
rather than what
will…
Our final poll – all parties less than 2% points away
from actual – except Labour, overestimated
Base: 862 British adults who are registered and certain to
vote 5th -6th May 2015
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor/Ipsos MORI calculations from BBC reports
36%
35%
11%
5%
8% 5%
Ipsos MORI final poll GB final result
Conservative lead = +1 Conservative lead = +6.5
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
37.7%
31.2%
12.9%
3.8%
8.1% 6.4%
We got highest
Conservative
share and
lowest error on
this key
calculation of
who would be
largest party…
Source: Chris Hanretty, University East Anglia
Average percentage point error on
Conservative/Labour vote share
Number of possible reasons for error…
Lots of knee jerk reactions
Late swing?
Shy Tories? Sampling error?
Labour turnout?
BPC Inquiry to unpick…
Will be more than one reason, and may vary by pollster – unlike 1992…
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jun
10
Au
g 1
0
Oct
10
De
c 1
0
Fe
b 1
1
Ap
r 11
Jun
11
Au
g 1
1
Oct
11
De
c 1
1
Fe
b 1
2
Ap
r 12
Jun
12
Au
g 1
2
Oct
12
De
c 1
2
Fe
b 1
3
Ap
r 13
Jun
13
Au
g 1
3
Oct
13
De
c 1
3
Fe
b 1
4
Ap
r 14
Jun
14
Au
g 1
4
Oct
14
De
c 1
4
Fe
b 1
5
Ap
r 15
Polls got the final prediction wrong – but direction of
travel was fairly clear for last year…
Base: c.500-600 British adults certain to vote each month
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
2013
average
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM
38 35 33
Election
campaign
average
31
2014
average
34
32
2012
average
41
33
2011
average
40
35
2010 post
GE
average
37
38
Lots of social media activity by the young, fewer votes
‘Shy Tories’ not our problem – instead ‘Lazy Labour’
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Base: 1,186 British adults 18+, 5th – 6th May 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor/Ipsos MORI calculations from BBC reports
9.3
11.3
12.2
12.5
Implied from final poll ( includes element of over-claim byrespondents)
Actual votes
Votes
(millions)
© Ipsos MORI
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0
2015
2010
2005
Days before election
% certain to vote
-9ppt
-11ppt
-16ppt
Turnout lower than we predicted. Normally c10 percentage points lower
than claimed, but 16 percentage points in 2015
Difference between actual turnout and certainty to vote
© Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
Global Trends Survey | July 2014
MEGA TRENDS
www.ipsosglobaltrends.com
“We always overestimate the
change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will
occur in the next ten”
Bill Gates
© Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
Global Trends Survey | July 2014
POPULATION CHANGE
UNEVEN ECONOMIC GROWTH
GLOBALISATION AND MIGRATION
CLIMATE CHANGE
TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE
POLITICAL AND
INDIVIDUAL CHANGE
© Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
Global Trends Survey | July 2014
Version 1 | Internal Use Only © Ipsos MORI
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
Changes in anxiety
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
May2009
May2010
May2011
May2012
May2013
May2014
Unemployment
NHS
Crime/ Law & Order
Economy
Immigration*
Version 1 | Internal Use Only © Ipsos MORI
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
Rise in anxiety about inequality how far will it go?
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
May2009
May2010
May2011
May2012
May2013
May2014
Sept 1999:
Alastair Darling –
“one child in
three” living in
poverty
July 2014 –
highest score
recorded
(18%)
January 2005 –
Make Poverty
History
campaign
launched on New
Year’s Day
Cameron becomes
PM
Version 1 | Internal Use Only © Ipsos MORI
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
May2009
May2010
May2011
May2012
May2013
May2014
A8 Countries
join the EU
House prices
rising at fastest
rate in 10 years
2005 Election – Blair promises
to make families £800 better off
and help first time buyers
Highest score
since May
2008 (15%)
Cameron becomes
PM
Version 1 | Internal Use Only © Ipsos MORI
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
May2009
May2010
May2011
May2012
May2013
May2014
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Lords vote to increase
compensation for those
whose company pension
schemes have collapsed
Blair and Harriet Harman
propose ‘affluence testing’
to exclude the well-off from
state benefits
Brown unveils
pension credits
Pensions commission
report – “more than 12
million working people are
not saving enough for their
retirement”
Lowest ever score
(3%)
Cameron becomes
PM
Version 1 | Internal Use Only © Ipsos MORI
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
Climate change no change here
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
May2009
May2010
May2011
May2012
May2013
May2014
Cameron’s “Vote
Blue, go Green”
campaign at 2006
local elections
Buncefield Oil Depot fire – toxic
cloud reaches northern Spain Wettest Autumn since
records began –
widespread flooding
across the UK
EC proposes carbon
emission cuts of 20%
by 2020
Stern
Review
on
climate
change
Cameron becomes
PM
Flooding
in
England
Version 1 | Internal Use Only © Ipsos MORI
And concern about climate change is also falling
82% concerned 60% concerned 71% concerned
2005 2010 2013
Bases: 2013: 973 Great British adults, aged 15 and over, 8th - 26th March 2013; 2010: 1,822 Great
British adults, aged 15 and over, 6th January - 26th March 2010; 2005: 1,491 Great British adults,
aged 15 and over, 1st October – 6th November 2005. Methodology: face-to-face in-home
Source: Nuclear Power, Ipsos MORI/Cardiff
University/UKERC, 2013 http://www.ipsos-
mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3284/
British-public-split-on-nuclear-power.aspx
Version 1 | Internal Use Only © Ipsos MORI
Only Americans are less likely to agree that
climate change is anthropogenic
93%
84%
84%
82%
80%
80%
80%
79%
78%
77%
76%
76%
74%
72%
71%
70%
68%
67%
64%
64%
54%
6%
3%
6%
5%
5%
9%
8%
4%
4%
8%
8%
8%
12%
10%
9%
11%
12%
14%
5%
9%
13%
12%
15%
15%
16%
13%
14%
19%
20%
17%
18%
21%
22%
18%
22%
24%
25%
24%
32%
China
Argent…
Italy
Spain
Turkey
France
India
Brazil
Belgium
S Korea
S Africa
Total
Sweden
Germa…
Canada
Japan
Poland
Russia
Austra…
GB
US
Agree
Disagree
Total
Great
Britain
To what extent do
you agree or
disagree…
The climate change
we are currently
seeing is largely the
result of human
activity?
1
2
3
4
5
6
8
7
9
10
11
T
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 Sept 2013 Question 15h
Published
Version 1 | Internal Use Only © Ipsos MORI
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
The fuss about the EU?
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
May2009
May2010
May2011
May2012
May2013
May2014
9/11
Treaty of
Accession: 10 new
EU Member States
France and
Holland reject
ratification of EU
constitution
Lowest score
recorded (1%)
Amsterdam Treaty signed
Cameron becomes
PM
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
Post Euro
elections: Highest
score since June
2005 (12%)
Public services?
Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly
Confidential
© Ipsos MORI
63% … say they have not noticed any
changes to the services provided
by their local councils
Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly
Confidential
© Ipsos MORI
Net satisfaction scores are calculated by subtracting the proportion of people who are dissatisfied from the proportion of people who are satisfied
67
15
52
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Headlines bad, satisfaction stable
Base: Adults aged 16+ in England (c. 1000 per wave) Source: Ipsos MORI/DH Perceptions of the NHS Tracker
%
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Net satisfied
Overall how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the running of the National Health Service nowadays?
Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly
Confidential
© Ipsos MORI
Pride in the NHS remains very high
Base: Adults aged 16+ in England (c. 1000 per wave) Source: Ipsos MORI/DH Perceptions of the NHS Tracker
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Please tell me whether on the whole you agree or disagree with each of the following statements…
% agree
78
…Britain’s National Health Service
is one of the best in the world
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
73%
72%
64%
21%
23%
29%
7%
5%
7%
Winter 2014
Winter 2013
Spring 2013
Agree Disagree Don't know/Not stated
Please tell me whether on the whole you agree or disagree with each of the following statements… People are treated with compassion when they use NHS services
High levels of agreement that people are treated with
compassion when using NHS services…
Source: Ipsos MORI/DH Perceptions of the NHS Tracker Base: Adults aged 16+ in England (c. 1000 per wave)
NHS
Version 1 | Internal Use Only © Ipsos MORI
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
0
10
20
30
40
50
May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
May2009
May2010
May2011
May2012
May2013
May2014
Introduction of
means-tested
tuition fees.
Education most
important issue.
First City Academies
introduced
Lowest score
since Dec 1985
(9%)
Labour’s second term - pledge
to improve failing secondary
schools
Education and
Inspections Bill limits
the power of LAs to
open new schools
April 2011 – Pupil Premium
introduced
Cameron becomes
PM
Version 1 | Internal Use Only © Ipsos MORI
Teachers aren’t happy with the government
3
2
1
1
35
13
7
8
22
31
11
13
27
30
28
32
13
24
47
45
Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the current
government’s performance on education?
Very satisfied Fairly
satisfied
Neither
satisfied nor
dissatisfied
Very
dissatisfied
Fairly
dissatisfied
2010
2014
2004
2015
Question: Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the current government’s performance on education? Base: 1,026 school leaders
(2015); 1,198 school leaders (2014); 366 teachers on Senior Leadership Team interviewed for Ipsos MORI’s 2010 Teachers Omnibus; 322
teachers on Senior Leadership Team interviewed for 2004 Teachers Omnibus
Source: The Key/Ipsos MORI; Ipsos MORI Teachers Omnibus
Version 1 | Internal Use Only © Ipsos MORI
But never are!
3
2
1
1
35
13
7
8
22
31
11
13
27
30
28
32
13
24
47
45
Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the current
government’s performance on education?
Very satisfied Fairly
satisfied
Neither
satisfied nor
dissatisfied
Very
dissatisfied
Fairly
dissatisfied
2010
2014
2004
2015
Question: Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the current government’s performance on education? Base: 1,026 school leaders
(2015); 1,198 school leaders (2014); 366 teachers on Senior Leadership Team interviewed for Ipsos MORI’s 2010 Teachers Omnibus; 322
teachers on Senior Leadership Team interviewed for 2004 Teachers Omnibus
Source: The Key/Ipsos MORI; Ipsos MORI Teachers Omnibus
Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly
Confidential
© Ipsos MORI
Q Thinking about this local area, which four or five of the following, if any, do you think
most need improving?
What are people worried about?
Base: Adults aged 15+ in Great Britain (997) 11 – 17 April 2014. ‘Local area’ defined as 15 to 20 minutes walking distance from respondents home
41%
30%
29%
27%
24%
21%
20%
19%
16%
16%
15%
15%
14%
13%
12%
12%
Condition of roads and pavements
Job prospects
Activities for teenagers
Cleanliness of streets
The level of traffic congestion
Affordability of housing
The level of crime and anti-social behaviour
Facilities for young children
Local high street facilities
Public transport
Wage levels and local cost of living
Parks and open spaces
Health services
Schools
Social care – adults and older people
Sports and leisure facilities
Mentions above 10%
Source: Ipsos MORI Local Improvement Index
Version 1 | Internal Use Only © Ipsos MORI
Q Which of the following challenges do you think will be most important to public
services as a whole over the next five years? Please pick three. And which one is least
important?
What are people worried about for public
services?
Base: Adults aged 15+ in Great Britain (997) 11th – 17th April 2014
47%
34%
25%
23%
22%
21%
17%
16%
13%
10%
Budget cuts
Changes in society (ageing population,immigration)
Finding new ways to deliver servicesmore efficiently
Changes in people’s health and lifestyles
Responding to changes in the Government’s policies
Retaining good staff and positivemorale
Losing public support in their ability todeliver services
Protecting personal data and keepinginformation secure
Tackling the effects of climate change
Having good relationships with otherorganisations they work with
6%
6%
7%
7%
6%
4%
8%
4%
30%
11%
Most important Least important
36 41% of public believe further austerity will be
needed – 46% disagree
Thinking about the state of Britain’s economy and the amount the government spends and borrows,
which of these statements comes closest to your view even if you don’t completely agree with any of
them?
Base: 2,006 British adults 18+, 27th -28th August
13%
18%
28%
41%
Don't know
Austerity and cuts in
government spending were
never really needed to fix the
national economy, it was just an
excuse to cut public services
Whilst a period of austerity was
needed to fix the national
economy, we don't need
another five years of cuts in
government spending
The national economy is not yet
fully fixed, so we will need to
continue with austerity and
cuts in government spending
over the next five years
37 Six in ten feel people are entitled to expect
more from government
Source: Populus
Please indicate the extent to which you agree with each pair of opposing statement, even if neither
statement represents your view exactly. (Scale of 0-10.)
Base: 2,006 British adults 18+, 27th -28th August
17%
59%
24%
Agree equally with both (5)
People are entitled to
expect more from
government (NET: 6-10)
People expect too much
from government (NET: 0-
4)
What will the UK look like in future?
Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly
Confidential
© Ipsos MORI
Localism
61%
59%
58%
56%
55%
52%
51%
47%
47%
46%
46%
45%
42%
42%
39%
37%
37%
34%
30%
26%
26%
27%
28%
21%
31%
24%
31%
22%
17%
29%
27%
24%
26%
36%
18%
33%
31%
32%
13%
14%
13%
23%
15%
20%
25%
22%
31%
37%
26%
28%
31%
34%
35%
27%
46%
33%
40%
42%
US
GB
Canada
S Africa
France
Austra…
Italy
Japan
India
Turkey
Poland
Total
Brazil
Russia
Spain
Germa…
Argent…
Belgium
Sweden
S Korea
1 to 2
4 to 5
Total
Great
Britain
Which comes
closest to your own
opinion?
A. Decisions about
public services (e.g.
public transportation,
public education, public
safety and social
services), are better if
they are made locally
OR
B. Decisions about
public services are
better if they are made
nationally
Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 Sept 2013 Question 12 (no
China)
1
2
3
4
5
6
8
7
9
10
11
T
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly
Confidential
© Ipsos MORI
© Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
Global Trends Survey | July 2014
TECHNOLOGY PRIVACY TRADITION HEALTH
SIMPLICITY GLOBALISATION GENERATIONS INEQUALITY
TRUST
© Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
THE CULTURE OF NOW
© Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
Global Trends Survey | July 2014
PERSONALISATION VS PRIVACY
44
© Ipsos MORI
I keep saying that the sexy job
in the next 10 years will be
statisticians. And I’m not
kidding.
Hal Varian, chief economist at
It’s exciting – honestly…
45
© Ipsos MORI
Challenge 1 – quality and speed
“It is a misunderstanding to assume somehow this is
about technology rather than about data. The essential thing is the quality and reliability of the underlying data and updating it in real time. We haven't been able to master those two aspects yet.”
Tim Kelsey,
In interview with Ipsos MORI (Understanding Society), 2013
Many data quality challenges…
• Big doesn’t necessarily mean more representative
• Identifying location is often challenging
• Demographic information is sometimes limited
• Identifying groups based on behaviour is often a process of trial and error
• Need to maintain privacy
46
© Ipsos MORI
If you found out a company you are a customer with (for example your bank or your main supermarket) was doing any of the following, which if any, would make you seriously consider not using this company again?
70
56
53
51
49
40
Failing to keep safe or losing my personaldata
Selling anonymous data about customersto other companies
Exploiting overseas workers
Charging higher prices than competitors
Damaging the environment
Paying senior executives a largebonus/salary
%
Source: Deloitte/Ipsos MORI Base: 1,036 British adults 15+, 30 March – 5 April 2012
Challenge 2 – significant concerns about privacy…
47
© Ipsos MORI
How concerned, if at all, are you about public services sharing personal information
about you?
And specific concerns about public services sharing
personal information
Base: 1,009 adults aged 18+ telephone Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor October 2013
12%
19%
31%
37%
1%
Very
concerned
Fairly
concerned
Not very
concerned
Not at all
concerned
48
© Ipsos MORI
How happy or unhappy would you be for government departments and public services to do
the following? Share data with other government departments and public services if it would
lead to…
…but most happy about ‘sharing data’ if there are
benefits – especially for service improvement
Base: 1,009 adults aged 18+ telephone; split sample (c.500 per statement) Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor October 2013
54%
14%
31%
Happy
Neither/nor
Unhappy
Don'tknow
61%
13%
24%
6%
… cost savings …better quality services
© Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
WHERE NEXT?
© Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
Global Trends Survey | July 2014
HEALTH PERSONAL AND PREVENTATIVE
© Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
T
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
72%
49%
45%
39%
27%
25%
24%
24%
20%
19%
18%
18%
17%
16%
14%
12%
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
8%
11%
10%
18%
11%
16%
32%
27%
23%
32%
13%
23%
27%
49%
35%
33%
34%
43%
42%
60%
44%
Brazil
India
China
Turkey
S Korea
Argentina
S Africa
Total
Belgium
Australia
Japan
Russia
Sweden
France
US
Canada
Poland
GB
Germany
Spain
Italy
Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 Sept 2013
WHERE IS IT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE?
Over the coming
years, do you
expect the quality
of healthcare that
you and your
family will have
access to locally
will improve, stay
the same or get
worse?
Improve
Total
Great Britain
Key:
Get worse
© Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
Global Trends Survey | July 2014
FROM TREATMENT TO PREVENTION TO WELLNESS
72% want more control over
their healthcare
85% are willing to seek a
second opinion if doubts
about doctors’ diagnosis
2ND
© Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
Global Trends Survey | July 2014
SIMPLICITY CHOICE ABOUT CHOICE
© Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 Sept 2013
UNIFORM DESIRE FOR SIMPLICITY
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
16-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+I wish my
life was
more simple
Emerging
% agree
Established
© Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
Global Trends Survey | July 2014
, complexity, and
limited attention span can lead to behavioural market
Cass Sunstein
© Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
Global Trends Survey | July 2014
GENERATIONS GENERATIONS APART
© Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
Almost entirely wrong
© Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
All data points represent > 200 responses
Source: British Social Attitudes
“How much do you agree or disagree that … the creation of the welfare
state is one of Britain's proudest achievements.”
..our generations start from very different places...
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000)
% % Agree/Strongly agree
© Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
All data points represent > 200 responses
Source: British Social Attitudes
“The government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor,
even if it leads to higher taxes”
Overall public opinion has moved significantly against further redistribution via welfare in Britain….
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Agree
Disagree
© Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
All data points represent > 200 responses
Source: British Social Attitudes
“The government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor,
even if it leads to higher taxes…”
Even as attitudes change – generations stay different…
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000)
% Agree
1. Decline in support across board
2. But generations are different – and stay different
3. Younger age groups are less open to further redistribution
© Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
All data points represent > 200 responses
Source: British Social Attitudes
Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party?
Support for ONE party down to 21%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Pre war (born before 1945) Baby boomers (born 1945-1965) Generation X (born 1966-1979)
Generation Y (born 1980-) Generation Z (born after 2000) Total
% Yes
© Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
All data points represent > 200 responses
Source: British Social Attitudes
Are sexual relations between two adults of the same sex always wrong, almost
always wrong, wrong only sometimes, or not wrong at all?
17% to 62% in “support” for gay relationships
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Pre war (born before 1945) Baby boomers (born 1945-1965) Generation X (born 1966-1979)
Generation Y (born 1980-) Generation Z (born after 2000) Total
% Not wrong at all
© Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential
All data points represent > 200 responses
Source: British Social Attitudes
A husband's job is to earn money; a wife's job is to look after the home and
family
From 38% to 80% disagreement with traditional gender roles
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Pre war (born before 1945) Baby boomers (born 1945-1965) Generation X (born 1966-1979)
Generation Y (born 1980-) Generation Z (born after 2000) Total
% disagree
In conclusion - change is coming (as always)
Values change relatively slowly
But certainly “tipping point” risks
Transparency and lack of trust…
Pressure to innovate is relentless
Greatest human needs unchanged
Good luck
Thank you ben.page@ipsos.com
benatipsosmori
The challenge for managers and leaders– TRY SOMETHING NEW
Recommended