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Pasadena Water and Power
The Impact of Climate Change and Drought on Water Quality
Presented by David Kimbrough, Ph.D., Water Quality Manager
Presented to 10th Annual EOH Technical Symposium
Drinking Water Policy in California: Environmental & Occupational Health Aspects
March 4, 2015
Pasadena Water and Power
Climate Change
WHAT DO YOU THINK OF WHEN YOU THINK OF CLIMATE CHANGE?
Pasadena Water and Power
Climate Change and Pasadena
Pasadena Water and Power
Climate Change and Pasadena
Pasadena Water and Power
Climate Change and Pasadena
Pasadena Water and Power
Climate Change and Pasadena
Pasadena Water and Power
Climate Change and Pasadena
Pasadena Water and Power
Climate Change and Pasadena
Pasadena Water and Power
Climate Change and Pasadena
History
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Joseph Fourier
• The “Hot House Theory” of global warming was first advanced by Joseph Fourier, the French physicist and mathematician in 1824.
• He calculated that the Earth should be considerably colder than it actually is if warmed by only the effects of incoming solar radiation.
• He argued that the atmosphere trapped heat.
• He cited the work of Horace Bénédicte de Saussure who built a glass device to capture the heat of the sun.
> “Remarques générales sur les Temperatures du globe terrestre et des espaces planétaires” (Annales de Chimie et de Physique, pp. 136-167, Tome XXVII, Octobre 1824. Paris: Crochard).
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John Tyndall
• Invented the first ratio spectrometer and calculated which gases absorbed the most infra-red radiation.
> “On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours, and on the Physical Connexion of Radiation, Absorption and Conduction” (Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, pp. 1-36, Vol. 151, Part I, 1861.
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Svante Arrhenius
• “…doubling of the percentage of carbon dioxide in the air would raise the temperature of the earth's surface by 4°.”
• .∆F = α ln (C/C0) > ”On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon
the Temperature of the Ground” (Philosophical Magazine 1896, 41, 237-276)
• “The enormous combustion of coal by our industrial establishments suffices to increase the percentage of carbon dioxide in the air to a perceptible degree…we may hope to enjoy ages with more equable and better climates, especially as regards the colder regions of the earth, ages when the earth will bring forth much more abundant crops than at present, for the benefit of rapidly propagating mankind.“ > Worlds in the Making 1908
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Climate Change and Pasadena
Geek Slides
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Daytime Temperatures 1885 – 2014 N = 47,228
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Daytime Temperatures 1885 - 2000
Pasadena Water and Power
Daytime Temperatures 1885 - 2014
Pasadena Water and Power
Daytime Temperatures 1911 & 2011
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Daytime Temperatures 1885 - 2014
Difference of 3.4 oC A 14% Increase
Pasadena Water and Power
Daytime Temperatures 1885 - 2014
Pasadena Water and Power
Nighttime Temperatures 1885 – 2014 N = 47,228
Pasadena Water and Power
Nighttime Temperatures 1885 - 2000
Pasadena Water and Power
Nighttime Temperatures 1885 - 2014
Pasadena Water and Power
Nighttime Temperatures 1911 & 2011
Pasadena Water and Power
Nighttime Temperatures 1911 & 2011
Difference of 6.1 oC A 78% Increase
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Nighttime Temperatures 1911 & 2011
Pasadena Water and Power
February Temperatures with 10th and 90th %iles 1885 - 2014
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February Daytime Temperatures
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February Daytime Temperatures
Difference of 2.8 oC A 20% Increase
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Kruskal-Wallis One Way Analysis of Variance on Ranks for February
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February Nighttime Temperature
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February Nighttime Temperature
Difference of 4.5 oC A 102% Increase.
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February Nighttime Temperature
Pasadena Water and Power
August Temperatures with 10th and 90th %iles 1885 - 2014
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August Daytime Temperatures
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August Daytime Temperatures
Difference of 2.7 oC A 8% Increase
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August Daytime Temperatures
Pasadena Water and Power
August Nighttime Temperature
Pasadena Water and Power
August Nighttime Temperature
Difference of 4.1 oC A 32% Increase.
Pasadena Water and Power
August Nighttime Temperature
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Daytime Temperatures by Month and Decade
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Nighttime Temperatures by Month and Decade
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Climate Change and Pasadena
Wonk Slide
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Climate Change and Pasadena
Pasadena Water and Power
Climate Change and Pasadena
Other Cool Stuff
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Climate Change and Pasadena
Local Rainfall
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Local Rainfall (mm)
• Month Max Min 50% 25% 75% • January 469 0.01 74 25 158 • February 500 <0.01 73 28 163 • March 330 <0.01 62 25 122 • April 253 <0.01 18 8.5 53 • May 136 <0.01 3.8 0.57 13 • June 49.0 <0.01 0.51 0.01 3.1 • July 20.8 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.25 • August 57.7 <0.01 0.01 0.01 1.21 • September 149 <0.01 0.25 0.01 6.4 • October 236 <0.01 11 1.0 24 • November 349 <0.01 28 4.3 62 • December 436 <0.01 51 19 121
Pasadena Water and Power
Annual Rainfall 1883 – 2014
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January Rainfall 1883 – 2014
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March Rainfall 1883 – 2014
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April Rainfall 1883 – 2014
Pasadena Water and Power
Climate Change and Pasadena
Stream Flow
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Arroyo Seco Stream Spreading Grounds
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Arroyo Seco Stream Spreading Grounds
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Arroyo Seco Upstream Facilities
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Arroyo Seco Stream Flow 1910 - 2014
10M3/s = 160,000 gpm
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February Arroyo Seco Stream Flow
There is no Difference in the Median Flow but a Large Difference In the Number of Extreme Flow Events
Pasadena Water and Power
March Arroyo Seco Stream Flow
There is a Significant Difference in the Median Flow but a No Difference In the Number of Extreme Flow Events
Pasadena Water and Power
September Arroyo Seco Stream Flow
There is a Large Significant Difference in the Median Flow but a No Extreme Flow Events
Pasadena Water and Power
Arroyo Seco Stream Flow
Pasadena Water and Power
Climate Change and Pasadena
Mt. Wilson
Pasadena Water and Power
Mt. Wilson
Pasadena Water and Power
Mt. Wilson Daytime Temperatures 1948 - 2014
Pasadena Water and Power
Mt. Wilson Nighttime Temperatures 1948 - 2014
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Mt. Wilson Precipitation Per Year 1948 - 2014
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Mt. Wilson Snow Days & Cumulative Depth Per Years1948 - 2014
Pasadena Water and Power
Climate Change and Pasadena
Castaic Lake
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Castaic Lake – Western Terminus of the State Wate Project
Earl Schmidt Filtration Plant – Castaic Rio Vista Treatment Plant – Saugus Joseph Jensen Treatment Plant - Sylmar
Pasadena Water and Power
Castaic Lake – Western Terminus of the State Wate Project
The Intakes to these three treatment plants are in the Hyplimnion
Pasadena Water and Power
Castaic Lake – Inlet Water Temperature
Pasadena Water and Power
Climate Change and Pasadena
Water Quality
Pasadena Water and Power
Past
71
Pasadena Water and Power
Future
72
Pasadena Water and Power
Regulations
73
Pasadena Water and Power
Regulations
• Detention Times in Distribution Systems Will Rise
• Fewer Discharges • Drought Conditions • Water Conservation • Discharge Limitations
> NPDES Permit > MS4 Permittees > TMDLs
74
Pasadena Water and Power
Water Quality
• Water Temperatures Will Rise • Both in our Source Waters & Distribution Systems • This will Stimulate Microbial Growth
> HPCs > AOBs > NOBs > Algae
• This will Accelerate the Formation of Disinfection By-Products and Nitrification
• The Loss of Disinfectants will Accelerate
75
Pasadena Water and Power
Reactions
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NH2Cl + 2H2O + 2e- →NH4+ + Cl- + 2OH-
Decay of Chloramines
DOC + NH2Cl → NH4+ + CHCl3
Formation of Chloroform
Pasadena Water and Power
Water Quality
77
k = Ae-Ea/RT T = Temperature
[C] = [C0] – kt k = rate constant t = time
The Final Concentration of a THMs or Ammonia or Nitrite is a function of Time and Temperature
Pasadena Water and Power
Climate Change and Pasadena
Drought
Pasadena Water and Power
Local Sources of Water
Pasadena Water and Power
San Francisco Bay Delta
Pasadena Water and Power
Owen River Valley
Pasadena Water and Power
Sea Water Intrusion
Pasadena Water and Power
Old vs. New Water
83
Pasadena Water and Power
Raymond Basin
84
Pasadena Water and Power
Climate Change
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