The American Political Landscape: Demographics and political predispositions 1.Sectionalism...

The American Political Landscape:Demographics and political

predispositions

1. Sectionalism2. Race/Ethnicity3. Gender4. Income5. Education

Sectionalism and US Presidential ElectionsSectionalism and US Presidential Elections

2004 Presidential Election2004 Presidential Election

2008 Presidential Election2008 Presidential Election

Racial Make-up of US Racial Make-up of US Population (2000 - 2010)Population (2000 - 2010)

2000 2005 2010

WHITE 75.1%/68% 80.2% 72.4/64%

BLACK 12.3% 12.8% 12.6%

LATINO 12.5% 14.4% 16.3%

ASIAN 3.6% 4.3% 5%

NAT. AM. 0.9% 1.0%

“Minorities” becoming a Majority?

• What are the fastest-growing segments of the US population?

• Are there any states where “minorities” are currently a majority?

• How might all of this affect American politics?

Median Income by Race (2006)Median Income by Race (2006)WHITE $50,784

BLACK $30,858

LATINO $35,967

ASIAN $61,094

WHOLE POPULATION $48,451

Educational Attainment by Race Educational Attainment by Race (2005)(2005)

HS DIPLOMA COLLEGE+

WHITE 90.1% 30.5%

BLACK 81.5% 17.7%

LATINO 58.6% 12.0%

ASIAN 89.4% 49.8%

Gender and PoliticsGender and Politics

• The “Gender Gap” is the difference in the percentage of women and men who support a particular candidate.

• Women tend to support Democrats more than men and men tend to support Republicans more than women.

• More women than men have voted in every election since 1964. A higher percentage of women than men has voted in every election since 1980.

Gender in Recent ElectionsGender in Recent Elections2000 MEN WOMEN

George W. Bush 53% 43%

Al Gore 42% 54%

2004 MEN WOMEN

George W. Bush 55% 48%

John Kerry 44% 51%

2008 MEN WOMEN

Barack Obama 49% 56%

John McCain 48% 43%

Religious Identification in US(Source: 2001 Gallup Poll)

Religious Identification in US(Source: 2001 Gallup Poll)

PROTESTANT 51%

CATHOLIC 25%

JEWISH 2%

EASTERN ORTHODOX 1%

MORMON 1%

SPECIFIC OTHER 3%

NONE 8%

UNDESIGNATED 5%

Religious Identification Among Registered Voters (2001)

Religious Identification Among Registered Voters (2001)

PROTESTANT 49.5%

CATHOLIC 19.9%

JEWISH 2.3%

MORMON 1.4%

ATHEIST/AGNOSTIC 7.1%

NON-RELIGIOUS/NO RESPONSE 10%

OTHER 10%

Do you think churches should express their views on day-to-day

social and political issues?(SOURCE: Pew Research Poll, July 2006)

YES 51%

NO 46%

President Bush talks about his faith . . .

(SOURCE: 2006 Pew Research Poll)

THE RIGHT AMOUNT 52%

TOO LITTLE 14%

TOO MUCH 24%

After asking potential voters how religious they thought the major 2008 presidential candidates were, the Pew

Research Center then asked the same potential voters

how favorably they viewed each of the candidates.

What might the results tell us about the importance of a candidate’s religiosity?

Is God not as cool as

He used to

be?

Is God not as cool as

He used to

be?

Poverty in AmericaPoverty in America

The Poverty Line (from the US Dept. of Health and Human Services, 2006)

Single person $10,210

Family of four $20,650

Americans Living Below the Poverty Line

All ages 12.3%

Under 18 17.4%

Attitudes Toward the PoorAttitudes Toward the Poor

Americans have traditionally been suspicious of government assistance to the poor.

Why?

According to this Pew Research Center poll, there are some interesting trends in political attitudes associated with poverty and religion.

What might explain the changes?

Party IdentificationParty Identification

Ultimately, the best predictor of voting behavior is party identification.

Party ID is defined as the political party with which an individual most identifies. Some of those who “identify” with a particular party are registered as independents.