Thailand And Technology Trends

Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

Gartner Predicts 2010 Local ProgramGartner Predicts 2010 Local Program

ThailandThailand and and Technology TrendsTechnology Trends

Thaweesak KoanantakoolVice President,

National Science and Technology Development Agency29 January 2010

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

Agenda

• General Trends facing Thailand• Thailand – quick and slow• Gartner's Hype Cycle and

Thailand• Social Media Concerns• Challenges for Thailand's

Broadband development• Other little BIG issues

– Security, Privacy, Digital Rights

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

General Trends facing Thailand

• Climate Change• Concerns for food, water and energy/fuels• Aging Societies• Economic Regionalization –

AFTA → Asia Community (ASEAN+3,+6)• Broadband access (wired/wireless)

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

Thailand – quick and slow adopter

• Quick adopter of many technologies– Color TV introduced before UK

• Slow adopter of many regulatory practices– ISDN (slow, late, short-lived, unproductive)– Establishing Regulatory Body– WIFI (slow regulatory announcement)– 3G (sluggish and unclear plan)– WiMAX (too many reservations)– Digital Broadcast (slow, private sector driven)– Freeing spectrum for Digital Communications (unheard of)– Last-mile unbundling (hardly happens)– Number portability, TLS, USO, etc...

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

Gartner Hype Cycle 2009

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

From Smart phone to an ebook reader, web browser and game

Apple iPad, launched Jan 28, 2010

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

Mobile Device plays all “matured” applications in Gartner's Hype Cycle

SpeechRecognition

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

Mobile Device plays all “matured” applications in Gartner's Hype Cycle

LocationAwareApps

Schmap Geo Tweeter Schmap.com

Another fine Geo Social tool comes from the developers of the amazing local search service Schmap. Schmap publishes local guides, providing a wealth of information to visitors of many major urban centers around the Globe... access information, photos, reviews and ratings on places of interest and much more. The company also has developed a number of location sharing tools, widgets, and services including the Schmap Geo-Tweet utility.

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

Mobile Device plays all “matured” applications in Gartner's Hype Cycle

LocationAwareApps

พระท��น�งสถ ตย�มโหฬาร

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

Mobile Device plays all “matured” applications in Gartner's Hype Cycle

SocialNetworking

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

Which screen will you be using?

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

It all depends on the bandwidth...

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

Broadband status: World

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

Does broadband availability contribute to economy?

Economy Broadband

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

Take a closer look into mobile technology

• Transistor radios• Cassette tape, Walkman[TM]

• Mobile phones

• Bluetooth earphones• Television in smart phones• Everything in smart phone

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010Source: http://www.engineersireland.ie/sector_papers/Next_Generation_Broadband.pdf

Applications, Bandwidth and TechnologySource: Verizon

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

Do we end up with three screens?

• จอเล�ก• จอกลาง• จอใหญ�/จอย�กษ�

All capable of IP connection?

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

Thailand is a fast adopter of Social Media

Picture source: slideshare.net

Social media needs “always-on” “everywhere” services.Speed is optional...

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

Thais hardly concern with the hidden and potential problems

Five scary things That Facebook Knows About You1. Facebook Saves Things That Have Been Deleted

– Whatever status updates or unglamorous pictures of you are still inside the server somewhere. A word of advice, think carefully and be tactful when uploading photos or making a status update.

2. Facebook Knows Your Viewing History– Log of clicks are used by Facebook to determine your viewing history.

Hence, it knows whose photos you are going through.3. Facebook Knows How Often You Interact With Or Click On The Profile Of A Given Person

– Depending on the number of visits you made on your friend’s profile, Facebook uses this data as a method to judge who your good friends are. This is visible through Facebook search where your friends are not listed in alphabetical order but by the people who you interact most with. important is that people should be more tactful when they are online. In the real world, people may forgive and forget but in the virtual world, there are always traces of data that could be used against you.

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

We hardly concern with the hidden and potential problems

Five scary things That Facebook Knows About You

4. Facebook Carries Out Psychological Tests On New Features– Instead of doing group sampling or beta testing on their new features,

Facebook does the above plus eye ball tracking to get an idea of where you are looking at.

5. Facebook Employees Are Able To Retrieve Any Message You’ve Sent Out

– Since all data are stored in the server, employees have the clearance to pull out any data about you through a simple query on your profile.

– Whether the interview was a hoax or made-up, I think what’s more important is that people should be more tactful when they are online. In the real world, people may forgive and forget but in the virtual world, there are always traces of data that could be used against you.

Source: http://therumpus.net/2010/01/conversations-about-the-internet-5-anonymous-facebook-employee/?full=yes

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

From GSM to LTE to Femtocell

http://wimaxcomnet.blogspot.com/2008_02_01_archive.html

WiMAXFemtocell

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

Backbone network, Access network

• National Broadband plan is needed• Optical fiber backbones – 1gb/s, 100gb/s• Access network (last mile)

– Copper (ADSL, VDSL)– Fiber (FTTH)– Wireless LAN (WiFi, WiMAX)– Cellular access (3G – HSPA; LTE; Femtocell)

• Regulatory arrangement– Who does what?– When– Smart use of RF Spectrum

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

Broadband Challenge 1:

• Concession trap– Delay in 3G licensing & deployment– Problems with existing concessions and loss of

revenues to state-owned telcos once 2G providers moving their customers over to their new 3G network

– State-owned telcos: rolling back of privatization and lack of incentives to compete

Our Entangled Regulatory Environment needs a big clean up

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

Existing Mobile Concessions

25-30%16 years(2015)

CAT1800 GSMDPC

25-30%16 years(2013)

CAT1800 GSMOrange(True move)

12-30%27 years(2017)

CAT1800 GSMDTAC

15-30%25 years(2015)

TOT900 GSMAIS

Revenue Sharing

Period (Year expired)

ConcessionGranted by

NetworkOperator

Source: Adapted from http://www.ndaventures.com/Thailand_Telecom_Brief.pdf p.6End the concessions sooner...

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

Challenge 2:

• FTTx/ FTTH for Thailand– Upgrading from copper to optical fiber – Migrating to IP-based/ packet-switched networks – Appropriate investment models – Government

funding? Public-private partnership? Private investment? Combination of methods?

New technologies needs solid national open access network backbone

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

Challenge 3:

• Some pressing regulatory issues – Strong competition policy to discourage abuse of

power by incumbents • Account separation/ structural separation

– Open access backbone network• Reducing redundancy

– Unbundling policy for last miles– Hand-off policy for value-added services– Consumer protection: Price, speed & quality of

service

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

Infrastructure Sweet Spots andHappy Operators

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

Challenge 4:

• Bridging the digital divide– Moving forwards technologically while ensuring

nobody is left behind– Appropriate investment models to encourage

broadband deployment in rural and other cost-prohibitive areas

• Deployment of wired + wireless networks• Appropriate USO/ funding mechanisms

Watch for LTE and Femtocells, and be watchful for 3G and WiMAX.

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

The Way Forward - 1

• Addressing management and regulatory issues– End of concession era– ICT2020 and the national broadband plan?

• Upgrading the networks– Backbone: Complete migration from copper to fiber– Last miles: 100% coverage using a combination of wired and

wireless technologies• Investing in infrastructure with “sustainability” in

mind– Gradual upgrades– Shared resources with little redundancy/ Open access networks– Reuse of equipment where possible

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

The Way Forward - 2

• Clean up the Concession Contracts• Redefine TOT/CAT Infrastructure Sweet Spots• Create happy operator environment –

level-playing field• Creating local industry on broadband

infrastructure– Service Innovations by Thai Companies– Export potential

• Protecting & educating consumers– Focus on price, speed, and quality of broadband

services – Channels to address grievance

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010

Last, but not least

Other issues – Security threats for Internet and Cloud Computing– Privacy– DRM

“There are many good plans in Thailand. You've got to predict whether they can be implemented and who will do it.”

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Thailand and Technology TrendsThaweesak Koanantakool, 29 January 2010Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attentionhtk@nectec.or.thhtk@nectec.or.th

Q&A