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Danish Energy AgencyDanish Energy Agency
Technology Data in
Energy Planning
Anton Beck
Director
Global Cooperation
Danish Energy Agency
Danish Energy Agency
Long Term Planning
for a long time- First Energy plan in 1976
First Danish national energy plan was signed in 1976.
- Since then…… there has been a long tradition of broad political long
term energy agreements.
- 2018 Energy PlanThe latest is from 2018 and was signed by ALL Danish
political parties. It includes 3*600 MW offshore wind
power and the ambition to cover 55% of the Danish
energy consumption from renewables by 2030.
2
Danish Energy Agency
Long-Term Energy Planning
Input Energy system models Output
• Demand projection
• Fuel price projections
• Technology data
• CO2 price projections
• Historical data (statistics and existing stock)
• TIMES
• Balmorel
• LEAP
• Plexos
• Energy Outlook Reports
• Exploratory Scenarios
• Analyses for e.g. policy recommendations
Page 3
Danish Energy Agency
o Yearly Danish Energy Outlook
o Grid Planning
o National Energy and Climate plans
o Energy scenarios for 2020, 2035 and 2050
o AD hoc calculationseg. subsidy level assesment
o The common point of references of all analyes
How is the Technology Catalogue Used in DEA?
Page 4
Danish Energy Agency
E.g. costs of solar power has roughlyhalved within the last 5 years.
By using old data one risks to implement non-optimal scenarios…
Or make false predictions of the development of the system.
The risk of not using updated data
Page 5
Danish Energy Agency
An Open and Continuous Process
An open and transparent process is key to achieve:
- The highest quality of the product
- Wide acceptance of the data
The Technology Catalogue should be maintained continuously in order for it to stay updated.
Page 6
Technology prioritization
Data collection, analysis and drafting of catalogue
Deep-diveworkshop
Involving externalstakeholders
Finalisationof catalogue
Publication
Identification of new technologies
Danish Energy AgencyPage 7
Global Cooperation
Danish Energy AgencyDanish Energy Agency
Thank you for your
attention!
Danish Energy Agency
Anton Beck
Head of division
Global Cooperation
Danish Energy Agency
8
Danish Energy AgencyDanish Energy Agency
Technology Data in
Energy Planning
Danish Energy Agency
Anton Beck
Director
Global Cooperation
Danish Energy Agency
9
Danish Energy Agency
Open Process
An open and transparent process is key to achieve:
- The highest quality of the product
- Wide acceptance of the data
Page 10
Danish Energy AgencyDanish Energy Agency
Case study
Vietnam
Danish Energy Agency11
Overview of power sector technology
in Vietnam
1
Overview of power sector technology
o Vietnam power system in 2018:• ~50 GW of total installed capacity
• ~220 billion kWh of power generation
• 3 main technology: • Hydro power: 40% (Inc. Small hydro)
• Coal-fired plant: 38%
• Gas turbine (Dom. gas): 15%
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
P (
MW
)
A (
GW
h)
Power generation (GWh) Installed capacity (MW)Large hydro34.1%
Coal thermal38.3%
CCGT15.1%
Small hydro6.7%
Import1.2%
Wind power0.5%
Solar power0.2%
Biomass0.7%
Oil, gas& diezel
thermal3.3%
Distribution of technology
3
▪ Coal thermal (dom. Coal)▪ Hydro power▪ Import (China)
▪ Coal thermal▪ Solar▪ Wind
▪ Hydro▪ Coal thermal
▪ Hydro▪ Solar▪ Import (Laos)
▪ Hydro▪ Solar▪ Wind
▪ Hydro▪ Coal thermal▪ CCGT▪ Solar▪ Wind
Trend over the year
4
• Hydro: Tends to reduce proportion due to potential exploitation• Coal thermal plant: Rapidly developing, imported coal used• Gas turbine (combined cycled): Domestic gas, no new plants in recent
years• Renewable energy: Attractive, raising in proportion.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Renewable
Imported
CCGT
Gas thermal
Oil thermal
Coal-fired
Hydropower
Coal thermal technology
• 2018: 26 coal-fired power plants ~ total 19 GW– 23 sub-critical: 16 Pulverised, 7 CFB– 3 super-critical: Vinh Tan 1,4,4 Ext
• Challenges:– Existing power plants: old technology, low efficiency, inflexible– Mature technology: difficult to increasing efficiency (SC: 41% &
USC: 47%); follow direction of reducing pollution &environmental impact.
– Low flexibility of current plants, need to increase in futute(integrate high penetration of VRE).
– Domestic resources are limited (~35 mil.ton/year), depend onimported coal (55 mil.ton & 85 mil.ton in 2025& 2030forecasted)
– Finding location for new plant and coal importing port– More pollution (CO2, SOx, NOx, PM2.5) compare to other
technology, thus more environmental impact; difficult to acceptby public.
– Combined technology using both imported & domestic coal.
Northeast
North Central
Southern Coast
Gas turbine technology• 2018: 12 gas-turbine power plants ~
total 7.4 GW– 2 single cycle plants
– 10 combined cycle plants
• Domestic gas
• Location:– Southern Coast
Nhon Trach 2 CCGT
• Challenges:– Mature technology: difficult to increasing efficiency (GT: 36-40% & CCGT: 59-65%),
follow direction of reduce NOx and improving flexibility
– Domestic gas are limited and rapid decline after 2021; depend on imported LNG.
– LNG price depend on oil price; being clean fuel but higher cost compare to othertechnology.
– Peaking GT compete with other tech such as PSPP, BESS
– Expand lifetime & conversion of current plant (dom.gas) to use LNG
– Limited location for new plant (convenient for building importing LNG port)
Hydro power technology• 2018: 100 hydro power plants ~ 20000 MW (of total ~26000 MW
planed):– Large hydro ~ 16800 MW– Small hydro ~ 3300 MW
• Mostly large hydro ~ reservoir/ small hydro ~ run of river• Power generation + irrigation water supply + flood control.
• Challenges:– Available only on some locations ~ limited
resource, large hydro almost exploited– Change from bottom and middle operation
to peaking.– Research to expand current plants; using
new technology (low head, bulb turbine,…)– Reduce environmental impact: Flooding,
flood discharge, erosion,…– Increasing importing (HPP) from neighbor.
Son La HPP
Solar PV technology• ~20000 MWp register where 7,700 MWp approved.• 2019 March: 8 first PV plants ~ total 290 MW:
– Phong Dien, Krong Pa, Srepok1, Quang Minh, BP Solar 1, Vinh Tan, TTC 1, Yen Dinh.
• New technology (in VN), more likely to improve and reduce costs
• Challenges:– Unstable, generate no power at night make difficult in
forecast and operation. Do not support system stability due to no inertia.
– Concentrate at some specific places (e.g South Central, Highland) lead to problem of transmission
– Handle with battery after use, commercial ability of solar recycling technology
– High land occupy: 1 – 1.2 ha/MWp may limit use.– Policy to attract investor and integrate high penetration
into power system. Phong Dien PV solar farm
Highland
South Central
South
Wind power technology• 2018 March: 7 wind power plants ~ total 235 MW, almost onshore and
near shore:– Huong Linh 30 MW (Quang Tri), Tuy Phong 30 MW (Ninh Thuan), Dam Nai 7.9 MW (Ninh
Thuan), Mui Dinh 37.6 MW (Ninh Thuan), Phu Lac 24 MW (Binh Thuan), Phu Quy 6 MW(Binh Thuan), Bac Lieu 99.2 MW (Bac Lieu)
• Commercial technology but is still constantly improved anddecreased in cost (improve flexibility, low wind turbine, offshorewind, improve turbine efficiency).
• Challenges:– Offshore wind potential has not been investigated.
– Unstable and intermittent make difficult in forecastand operation.
– Concentrate in South Central, Sothern Coast lead toproblem of transmission.
Phu Lac wind farm
Pump storage and Battery storage
10
• Pump hydro storage:– Traditional technology, reuse water resources, less
environmental impact (8-12 hours generation)
– Efficiency 70%- 80%, difficult to increase efficiency, follow direction of improve flexibility.
– Limited location due to depends on geographical, topography, geology.
• Battery storage:̶ New technology: potential for
improvement and cost reduction̶ Flexible in installation and operation.̶ Current price is still high̶ Waste treatment technology after use is
unclear.
Thank you for your attention !
11
Danish Energy AgencyDanish Energy Agency
The Vietnamese
Technology Catalogue
Danish Energy Agency
Loui Algren
Advisor, The Danish Energy Agency
Danish Energy Agency
Agenda- Why develop a Technology Catalogue?
- What is a Technology Catalogue?
- How is the Technology Catalogue
developed?
- The Vietnamese Technology Catalogue
- Recommended next steps
Danish Energy AgencyDanish Energy Agency
Why Develop a
Technology
Catalogue?
Danish Energy Agency
Danish Energy Agency
Energy system model setupRubbish in = rubbish out
Input Energy system models Output (scenarios)
• Fuel price projections
• CO2 price projections
• Levies, taxes and subsidies
• Technology projections
• Historical data (statistics and existing stock)
• TIMES / LEAP
• Balmorel / PLEXOS
• PSS/E / PowerFactory
• Antares
• Baseline scenario (e.g. frozenpolicy)
• Exploratory scenarios
• Anticipatory scenarios (i.e. technical and ecnomicalfeasible pathway to reach a desired target)
Danish Energy Agency
o Yearly Danish frozen policy projection
o National Energy and Climate plans
o Energy scenarios for 2020, 2035 and 2050
o Ad hoc calculationseg. subsidy level assessment
o The common point of references of all analyses
How is the Technology Catalogue used in DEA?
Danish Energy AgencyDanish Energy Agency
What is A Technology
Catalogue?
Danish Energy Agency
Danish Energy Agency
A. Data sheets:
o Performance data ( Efficiency, life time, availability, start up time)
o Financial data (Investment cost, O&M cost)
o Environmental data (emissions )
o Data sets for e.g. 2015, 2020, 2030,(2014) and 2050
B. Qualitative technology descriptions
o General description of the Technologies
o Approach and assumptions for the data assessments
What is a Technology Catalogue?
Danish Energy Agency
The
Qualitative
Description
Danish Energy Agency
The
Quantitative
Description
Technology
Year of final investment decision 2015 2020 2030 2050 Uncertainty (2020) Uncertainty (2050) Note Ref
Energy/technical data Lower Upper Lower Upper
Generating capacity for one unit (MW) 3,5 3,5 4 5 2,0 6,0 1,5 8,0 A1 3
Average annual full-load hours 3100 3150 3200 3300 2000 4000 2000 4500 A, L 3
Forced outage (%) 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 5,0% 1,0% 5,0% B 4
Planned outage (%) 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,1% 0,5% 0,1% 0,5% C 4
Technical lifetime (years) 25 27 30 30 25 35 25 40 D 14
Construction time (years) 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1 3 1 3 E 4
Space requirement (1000m2/MW) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- F
Primary regulation (% per 30 seconds) G
Secondary regulation (% per minute) G
Nominal investment (M€/MW) incl grid
connection1,07 0,99 0,91 0,83 0,9 1,1 0,7 1,0 H 16, 2, 4
Nominal investment (M€/MW) excl. grid
connection (5% of nom. Investment)1,02 0,94 0,86 0,79 0,8 1,0 0,6 0,9 I, M 16, 2, 4
- of which equipment 75% 75% 75% 75% 70% 80% 70% 80% 4
- of which installation 25% 25% 25% 25% 20% 30% 20% 30% 4
Fixed O&M (€/MW/year) 25.600 23.900 22.300 21.200 21.510 26.290 16.960 25.440 J,N
Variable O&M (€/MWh) 2,8 2,5 2,3 2,1 2,3 2,8 1,7 2,5 J,N 4, 15, 18
Technology specific data
Rotor diameter 120 120 130 150 90 130 100 150 K 4
Hub height 90 90 100 110 85 120 85 150 4
Specific power (W/m2) 309 309 301 283 270 350 250 350
Average capacity factor 37% 37% 38% 39% 23% 46% 23% 51% 4
Average availability (%) 97% 97% 98% 98% 99% 95% 99% 95% 4
20 Large wind turbines on land
Regulation ability
Financial data (in 2015€) o Data for 2020, 2030
and 2050
o To be included direct in the databases for the modelling / analyses
o Notes, that explains the data
o References
Danish Energy Agency
Simple learningcurveapproach
Danish Energy AgencyDanish Energy Agency
The Process
Danish Energy Agency
Danish Energy Agency
How it was done
1. Kick-off workshop in June 2018
2. Decision on which technologies to include
3. Collection of data for local cases and for international projections
4. Development of methodology depending on the available data
5. Comments on draft TC
6. Midway workshop in October 2018
7. Focused hearing for relevant stakeholders in January 2019
8. Finalisation and launch in May 2019
Maybe illustrate with timeline
Danish Energy Agency
The future process
TC owner
ReferenceGroup
Consultant
Experts
1. Reference Group suggests updates of the catalogue
2. EREA decide on updates and hire a consultant for the task
3. Consultant writes a draft update and presents it to the technology experts at a deep dive workshop
4. Consultant writes an updated draft and receives written feedback from the technology experts and all other interested stakeholders
5. Consultant writes final version
6. EREA publish final version
PublicHearing
Publication
1 2 3 4
56
Danish Energy AgencyDanish Energy Agency
The Vietnamese
Technology
CatalogueDanish Energy Agency
Danish Energy Agency
The Vietnamese Technology Catalogue
1. Covers the following Technologies
2. Focus on the 5 most important
3. Assessments based on data from existing Vietnamese plants
4. Two external workshops which included good discussions and comments
Danish Energy Agency
Recommended next steps
1. Next version should take the received comments into account [examples?]
2. Some technologies develop very fast. Hence regular updates are necessary else the value of and confidence in the TC vanish
3. Encourage the energy sector to engage in the process
Danish Energy AgencyDanish Energy Agency
Thank you!
Danish Energy Agency
Loui Algren
Advisor, The Danish Energy Agency
Vietnam Energy Outlook Report 2019
Key findings and draft recommendations
16th of May 2019, Hanoi
Agenda
2
10.05-10.15 Introduction to the Vietnam Energy Outlook 2019
Today and the opportunities on the long term
Mr. Jakob Lundsager
Long term advisor for DEPP
10.15-10.35 Models and scenarios for decision making process in
Denmark
Mr. Jakob Lundsager
Long term advisor for DEPP
10.35-11.00 Analysis framework and results
How modeling and scenarios lead to the results
EA Energy Analyses
& Institute of Energy
11.00-11.30 Key findings and draft recommendations
What EOR can shed light on for the future energy
system
DEA Advisor Ms. Giada
Venturini
11.30-12.20 Q&A Session All
12.20 Lunch for all participants
INTRODUCTION
3
Background for EOR19
4
Development Engagement 1 - Danish Energy Partnership Programme with MOIT
- Government-to-government capacity building within long term energy planning
ADVANCED MODELLINGIMPROVING DATA
Technology catalogue
Fuel priceprojection
Database for input
Energy demand
projection
Balmorel power system model
TIMES all sector
energy model
THOROUGH ANALYSIS
Vietnam Energy
OutlookReport 2019
Support for PDP8
New model server
Vietnam Energy
OutlookReport 2019
PSS/E Grid Modelling
TIMES
Electricity demand
Biomass allocation
PSS/E
Comparison of power sector
EOR model setup – combined strengths
Balmorel
Gen. and Trans. cap
Dispatch snapshots
PSS/E
Transmission losses
Trans. capacity
5
Three model setup: One model cannot cover all details
Economic optimization on all sectorsTIMES
• Geographic resolution: three/one regions
• Time resolution: 12 time slices
Economic optimization on power sectorBalmorel
• Detailed representation of the power sector
• Geographic resolution: six regions
• Time resolution: 364 time slices (26 two-week periods, 14 time steps each)
Technical model on grid stability PSS/E
• Power flow
• Geographic resolution: +/- 600 nodes
• Time resolution: nanoseconds
Stakeholders involved in DE1
International consultant:EA Energy
Analyses A/s
Local consultant:Institute of Energy
Vietnam (IE)
Implemention:Electricity and RE Agency of Vietnam (EREA)
Danish Energy Agency (DEA)
Embassy of Denmark in Hanoi
Vietnam project officePower System
Model Trainees:IE, NLDC, USTH, EPU and more
Consulted: All energy planning
stakeholders
Process of EOR19
Balmorel data reportTIMES data reportTechnology CatalogueFuel price projection report
Technical reportEnergy Outlook
Report
7
• Policy perspective• In focus now• To be published in
October• Based on the Technical
Report
• Analytical perspective• Draft report is being finalised• Based on extensive work on
data and modelling
• Input data for modelling• Draft reports are being finalised• Documentation and development of
data used in the modelling
October 2018: Kick-off
workshop
August-October2018: Balmorel
training
April 2019: Workshop on
approach and draftfindings
May 2019: Workshop on key findings and
draftrecommendations
October 2019: Launch of
EOR19
Workshop purpose
8
• To get feedback on the EOR19 key findings and draft recommendations– Five themes
– All energy sector with a focus on power sector
– Mid-term and long term perspective
– Key characteristics of energy system development
– Scenario based recommendations
• Based on the feedback the EOR19 will be finalised
Where to focus?
Is something missing?
Is it useful and relevant?
Vietnamese energy landscape
9
Total primary energy
10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
kgO
E/U
SD
KTO
E
Electricity import
Hydro
Renewables
Biomass
Gas
Oil
Coal
Energy intensity
Strong growth: Primarily covered by increased coal usageNote: Shift in data source by 2015
Fuel import and export
11
-43%
-22%-26%
-14% -12% -14%-11%
-4%
6%
16%19%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
KTO
E
Export Import Net import Import dependency
Change to net import: 2015 with a trend towards increased import
RE ressources and consumption centres
12
Large solar potential but with long transmission to load centres
GHG emissions
13
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1994 2000 2010 2014
Mt
CO
2 e
q
Wastes
Agricultural
Industrial processes
Energy
LULUCF
Strong growth: Energy consumption has increasing share of emissions
Challenges
14
• Implementation of energy efficiency in a cost effective way
Large increase in energy demand – GDP growth continues
• The limited domestic resources of natural gas, oil, coal, hydro and biomass are being utilised
• Increased dependence on fuel import
• Challenges in developing new terminals for coal and LNG import
Energy resources – Coal and oil dominate
• Integration of wind and solar into the power system, geographical as well as temporal challenges
• Effective policy instruments for RE expansion
Renewable energy – Great potential
• Transmission lines and hydro power play a key role today
• In the future increasing demand and RE requires new solutions
Power balancing – increased challenge as RE develops
• Air pollution spurs public resistance towards central coal power plants
Climate change – Emissions are growing
Models and scenarios for decision
making in Denmark
Jakob Stenby Lundsager
Long Term Advisor
Danish Energy Partnership Programme
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 1
The use of models in DEA
In-house expertise
• 30 years of experience with using models
• Broad portfolio of different types of models for different purposes
Understand technical and economical consequenses:
• Planning of the energy system
• Design of policies and regulation
• Evaluation of progress
• Evaluate specific technologies and their impact
• Knowledge building
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 2
Policy is the framework for designing
the analyses and the models
Data
• Technology data (cost, efficiency, development)
• Fuel prices
• Taxes & subsidies
• Economicdevelopmet
• Historical data (consumption, plants, operation etc.)
• Time series (consumption, vind, solar
Models
• Consumption(business and households)
• Transport
• Electricity and districtheating
Analyses
• Annual frozen policy outlook
• Fossil free scenarios for 2050
• Scenarios for 2030
• Projections on technologies and electricity price
• Impact assesment
Policy
• Long term energyagreement
• Subsidies and taxes
• Licensing of RE
• International reporting to EU and UN
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 3
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 4
Annual Energy and Climate Outlook
Annual Energy and Climate Outlook
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 5
• Annual Outlook for period 2020 - 2030
• Frozen policy-approach
– only decided policies are included
• Covers all sectors from coal and gas extraction to demand side sectors
• Multiple model setup of 3 linked models
• Demand side: IntERACT (TIMES-CGE model covering
consumption)
• Transport: Spreadsheet transport model
• Power sector: RAMSES (detailed hourly model)
• Input calculation on expansion of onshore wind, biogas, solar heating
• Output: Primary and final energy demand, fuel consumption, GHG
emission, RE-share
RE-shares
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 6
2021: 43.6%2030: 39.8%
2021: 86.0%
2030: 57.5%
2020: 8.7%2030: 12.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
%
RE-share (RES) RE-share Electricity (RES-E) RE-share Transport (RES-T)
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
mil
lio
n t
on
ne
s C
O2
-eq
.
Non-ETS emissions Accumulated shortfall Reduction path 2021-2030
Emissions for transport, agriculture, household and
partly manufacturing
Uses of the annual outlook
• Evaluate progress toward set goals
• Evaluate new initiatives
• Put the spotlight on potential problems
• Cost-effectiveness of different solutions
• System-wide effects of various changes in policies and prices
• Basis for project plans and evaluations (consultants)
• Reference for Universities, Industry, NGO’s
• Inputs to IEA, EU, UN
• ”Official” reference point inside ministry - other projections and
outlooks are alligned with the outlook
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 8
2050 fossil free scenarios
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 9
Included Not included
How could a RE
system look like in
2050?
Technically viable?
Use of resources?
Security of supply?
Cost (bottum-up)?
Sensitivities?
Oil and gas sector.
Incentives (taxes,
subsidies,
regulation)?
Macro-economic
effects?
Recommendations?
5 scenarios for 2035/50
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 12
Uses of the 2050 fossil free
scenarios
• Consistent base for analyses decided in Energy
Agreement 2012
• Put the spotlight on challenges of long term goals
• Focused public discussions on concrete issues having
proved that a fossil free scenario is possible and
feasible
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 13
How the output of models and
analysis is used
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 14
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 15
• Improve decision
makers knowledge
• Common consistent
base for analyses
• Challenges for long
term goals
• Policy evaluation
• Challenges for short
term goals
Summary
• Models and scenarios are key elements in
making smart choices regarding the
development of the energy system
• Understanding the feasibility of different options
– technically and economically
• Different scenarios/analysis for different
purposes
• Good modelling starts with asking the right
questions!May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 16
Thank you for the attention
Jakob Stenby Lundsager
jlun@ens.dk
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 17
Analysis framework and results
How modeling and scenarios lead to the results
Nguyễn Ngọc Hưng, Institute of Energy
Mikael Togeby, Ea Energy Analyses
1
Scenarios
2
C0 Unrestricted
C1 RE target
C3 No new coal
C4 RE target EE
C5 Combination
C1 RE target (43% RE)
C1 EL1
40% RE RE2 EL2
50% RE RE3 EL3
60% RE RE4 EL4
70% RE RE5 EL5
80% RE RE6 EL6
Core scenarios
Green Power scenarios
Core scenarios
RE target No Coal EE
43% in 2050 No new capacity after
2025
Computed in TIMES
C0 Unrestricted
C1 RE Target X
C2 RE+No coal X X
C3 RE + EE X X
C4 Combination X X X
Analyses of all sectors: TIMES
TIMES-Vietnam
• Representation of whole energy system
– Reference energy system with aggregated power sector
• Three regions for power sector (North, Central, South) and one region for demand sectors with 12 time steps
– 3 seasons and 4 diurnal slices
• Least-cost optimization
– Most cost-effective pattern of resource use and technology deployment
• 5 demand sectors (industry, commercial, residential, agriculture, transport) and 12 industrial subsectors
• Scenario assessments
– Evaluation of policies and programs
– Quantifies the costs and technology choices
5
Total primary energy supply
6
• Domestic coal, oil, gas are fully exploited• High shares of fossil fuel in TPES• Energy efficiency reduce TPES by 11.9% and 21% in 2030 and 2050
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
C0
-UN
R
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
E
C4
-REN
NC
EE
C0
-UN
R
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
E
C4
-REN
NC
EE
C0
-UN
R
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
E
C4
-REN
NC
EE
C0
-UN
R
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
E
C4
-REN
NC
EE
2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ
Total primary energy supplyWind
Solar
Oil Products
Oil Crude
Hydro
Gas
ElectricityImportCoal
Biofuels
-2.3%
-11.9%
-15.4%
-21.0%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
-3500
-3000
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ
Changes in TPES due to energy efficiency
Biofuels Coal
Electricity Import Gas
Hydro Oil Crude
Oil Products Solar
Renewable energy & Imported fuel dependency
7
21.6%
17.2%
19.6% 19.1%
23.6%
19.2%20.5%
19.6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
C1-RE C3-REEE
PJ
Main RE sources and RE share in TPES
Biofuels Hydro Solar Wind RE share
35%34%
34%31%
33%
61%60%
58%
55%51%
75%
67%
59%63%
57%
79%
71%
58%
68%
58%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
C0
-UN
R
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
E
C4
-REN
NC
EE
C0
-UN
R
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
E
C4
-REN
NC
EE
C0
-UN
R
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
E
C4
-REN
NC
EE
C0
-UN
R
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
E
C4
-REN
NC
EE
2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ
Fuel imports and Import dependency
Coal Electricity Gas
Oil Crude Oil Products Import share in TPES
• Low RE share in TPES• Increased fossil fuels imported with high import dependency
Coal and gas supply-demand balances
• Huge coal imports required to for power generation in case of no RE target and without EE implementation
• Gas import is main alternative for industrial uses and power generation in case of no new imported coal-fired plant
8
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
C0
-UN
RC
1-R
EC
2-R
ENN
CC
3-R
EEE
C4
-REN
NC
EEC
0-U
NR
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
EC
4-R
ENN
CEE
C0
-UN
RC
1-R
EC
2-R
ENN
CC
3-R
EEE
C4
-REN
NC
EEC
0-U
NR
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
EC
4-R
ENN
CEE
2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ
Coal supply-demand balance
Import
DomesticSupply
Residential
Coal-firedPower
Industrial -ProcessHeat
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
C0
-UN
R
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
E
C4
-REN
NC
EE
C0
-UN
R
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
E
C4
-REN
NC
EE
C0
-UN
R
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
E
C4
-REN
NC
EE
C0
-UN
R
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
E
C4
-REN
NC
EE
2020 2030 2040 2050P
J
Natural gas supply-demand balance
Import
Domestic Supply
Transport
Refineries
Gas fired Power
Gas fired CHPs
Industrial -Process Heat
Total final energy consumption
9
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
C0
-UN
R
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
E
C4
-REN
NC
EE
C0
-UN
R
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
E
C4
-REN
NC
EE
C0
-UN
R
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
E
C4
-REN
NC
EE
C0
-UN
R
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
E
C4
-REN
NC
EE2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ
Total final energy consumption by sector
Agriculture Commercial Industrial Residential Transportation
-3.6%
-12.2%
-16.6%
-19.7%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ
Changes in TFEC due to energy efficiency
Agriculture Commercial
Industrial Residential
Transportation Percentage change
• Large shares of industrial in TFEC• Energy saving potential 12.2% and 19.7% in 2030 and 2050
Energy saving potential by sector
10
-6.1%
-11.0%
-15.8%
-20.5%
-1.2%
-8.9%
-11.6%
-16.3%
-7.0%
-22.7%-23.6%
-24.5%
-6.7%-13.4%
-23.7% -23.5%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
2020 2030 2040 2050
Energy saving by sector in percentage term
Commercial Industrial Residential Transportation
-3.6%
-8.4%
-12.2%
VNEEP 3 '19-25, -7%
VNEEP 3 '26-30, -10%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
02020 2025 2030
PJ
Energy saving in comparision with VNEEP 3 targets
Agriculture Commercial
Industrial demand devices Residential
Transportation Percentage change
VNEEP 3 '19-25 VNEEP 3 '26-30
• In 2030, energy saving by sector are 22.7% by residential, 13.4% by transport, 11% by commercial and 8.9% by industrial
• Economic potentials of energy efficiency higher VNEEP 3 targets**VNEEP targets will be compared with a baseline demand
Energy saving by sector and end-use
11
0 9 13 4 1 1 168 38
140170
10 3 27 0
139
6
-5
1 1 2260
15 2 3 17
217
109
442
239
32 9
135
1
526
134
-18
5
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Bu
ildin
g Eq
uip
men
t
Co
oki
ng
Ligh
tin
g
Spac
e C
oo
ling
Spac
e H
eati
ng
Wat
er H
eati
ng
Ind
ust
rial
- F
eed
sto
ck
Ind
ust
rial
- M
ach
ine
Dri
ve
Ind
ust
rial
- O
ther
Fac
iliti
es
Ind
ust
rial
- P
roce
ss H
eat
Co
oki
ng
Ligh
tin
g
Ref
rige
rati
on
Spac
e C
oo
ling
Wat
er H
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ng
Car
& M
oto
rcyc
le
Co
mm
erci
al
Trai
n
Wat
er
Bu
ildin
g Eq
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men
t
Co
oki
ng
Ligh
tin
g
Spac
e C
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Spac
e H
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ng
Wat
er H
eati
ng
Ind
ust
rial
- F
eed
sto
ck
Ind
ust
rial
- M
ach
ine
Dri
ve
Ind
ust
rial
- O
ther
Fac
iliti
es
Ind
ust
rial
- P
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ss H
eat
Co
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Ligh
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Ref
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on
Spac
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Wat
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& M
oto
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le
Co
mm
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al
Trai
n
Wat
er
COM IND RSD TRN COM IND RSD TRN
'2030 '2050
PJ
• Main areas for energy saving: industrial heat processes and motors, residential cooking and space cooling, transport car & motors
Total effects of EE & decentralized generators
12
265.4
571.8
0.1%
2.9% 5.2%
8.6%
3.8%
9.8%
21.4%
28.6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
Effects of EE and CHP on centralized generation requirements Saving
Decentralized
Remainder
PDP7-R electricitygeneration
Decentralizedshare
Total percentagereduction
CO2 emission
13
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
C0
-UN
R
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
E
C4
-REN
NC
EE
C0
-UN
R
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
E
C4
-REN
NC
EE
C0
-UN
R
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
E
C4
-REN
NC
EE
C0
-UN
R
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
E
C4
-REN
NC
EE
2020 2030 2040 2050
Mill
ion
to
ns
CO
2
Agriculture Commercial Industry Power Sector
Residential Supply Transport
NDC2-BAU, 643.2
C1-RE, 532.8
C3-REEE, 456.0
NDC2-U8, 591.7
NDC2-C25, 482.4
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2020 2030
Mt
CO
2
• With RE targets and EE efforts, reductions in CO2 emissions will be higher than NDC targets
Total system cost
14
• Energy efficiency reduce total system cost 10.9% by 2030 and 17.7% by 2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350C
0-U
NR
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
E
C4
-REN
NC
EE
C0
-UN
R
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
E
C4
-REN
NC
EE
C0
-UN
R
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
E
C4
-REN
NC
EE
C0
-UN
R
C1
-RE
C2
-REN
NC
C3
-REE
E
C4
-REN
NC
EE
2020 2030 2040 2050
Bn
USD
20
15
Variable Fixed O&M Demand investment Supply investment Fuel
Detailed analyses of power sector development: Balmorel
Balmorel
• Description of all individual power plants– Fuel, efficiency
• Hourly: – Demand
– Wind and solar profiles
• Optimal dispatch
• Least cost investments – Generation
– Transmission
16
Transparent• Methods• Data
POWER SECTOR RESULTS
17
OBSERVATION 1: WIND AND SOLAR
18
TWh
19
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
C0 Unrestricted C1 RE target
RE
shar
e
TWh
Battery
Solar
Wind offshore
Wind
Hydro
Other RE
Biomass
Oil
Imp. LNG
Dom. NG
Imp. coal
Dom. coal
RE share
TWh
20
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
C0 Unrestricted C1 RE target
TWh
Solar
Wind offshore
Wind
Wind and solar
• Wind and solar is attractive!
– First a balanced expansion
• 2030: 39 TWh wind; 24 TWh solar
– End years: More solar
• 2050: 90 TWh; 191 TWh solar (RE Target scenario)
• Reduce:
– Fuel import
– CO2 emission
21
OBSERVATION 2: STORAGE
22
Week 47, 2030
23
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
T00
1T0
07
T01
3T0
19
T02
5T0
31
T03
7T0
43
T04
9T0
55
T06
1T0
67
T07
3T0
79
T08
5T0
91
T09
7T1
03
T10
9T1
15
T12
1T1
27
T13
3T1
39
T14
5T1
51
T15
7T1
63
GW
Battery
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Other RE
Biomass
Imp. LNG
Dom. NG
Imp. coal
Dom. coal
Variability
2020 2030 2040 2050
Average demand (GW) 30 60 92 111
Yearly generation from wind and solar
compared to demand
5% 12% 22% 29%
Average absolute change in
demand (GW/h)
1.2 2.4 3.6 4.3
Average absolute change in
residual demand (GW/h)
1.2 2.6 5.4 8.6
24
No major change in the variability of the system
”Residual demand” = Demand minus wind and solar generation
RE Target (C1): Wind/Solar and Storage
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2020 2030 2040 2050
C1 RE target
GW
Wind/Solar
Battery
53%
11%
26%
Storage – and alternatives
• Both Batteries and Pumped hydro has been tested as storage– Short term storage is more attractive
– Batteries: 2-3 MWh per MW
• Alternatives to be studied:– Concentrated Solar Power, CSP, with thermal storage
– More power exchange with neighbouring countries
– Demand response• Industry
• Electric vehicles
26
OBSERVATION 3: CO2 REDUCTION
27
CO2: 2050
28
RE targetEmission limit
C2 Unrestricted
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Bill
ion
USD
Mt CO2 emissions
50% reduction of CO2
emissions is very realistic!
Thank you!
Vietnam Energy Outlook
Report 2019 Key findings and preliminary policy insights
Giada Venturini
Advisor, Danish Energy Agency
16 May, 2019
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 1
• Themes: EOR19 focus areas
• Key Findings from the analyses
• Draft Policy Insights: from current trends to
mid- and long-term energy system
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 2
Agenda
EOR19 themes
• Which resources will characterize the energy mix?
• What will be the level of energy self-sufficiency?
Energy Resources
• What will be the impact of energy efficiency (EE) measures?
• Which are the most important areas for EE?
Energy Efficiency
• What are the key developments of renewable energy technologies in the future?
Renewable Energy
• How can Vietnam balance the future power system? What are the key solutions?
Power System Balancing
• What is the impact of the future energy system on GHG emissions?
• What is the impact of the future energy system on air pollution?
Climate and Local pollution
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 3
Key findings
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 4
• Which resources will characterize the energy mix?
➢ RE% up to 30% of TPES in 2050, with other domestic fuels almost fully utilized.
➢ RE% up to 60% in power sector in 2050
➢ EE will mainly reduce the consumption of oil products, partly natural gas and coal.
Energy Resources
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
Unrestricted RE Target RE+NoNewCoal RE Target+EE RE+EE+NoNewCoal
PJ
Total Primary Energy Supply
Bioenergy Coal Electricity Gas Hydro Oil Crude Oil Products Solar Wind
Key findings
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 5
• What will be the level of energy self-sufficiency?
➢ RE support combined with a limitation on new coal-fired plants could reduce the reliance on foreign energy imports, as well as reduce emissions.
➢ The import cost can be reduced by EE measures, while a limitation on coal does not alone reduce import costs significantly.
Energy Resources
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
Unrestricted RE Target RE+NoNewCoal RE Target+EE RE+EE+NoNewCoal
PJ
Fuel imports
Coal Gas Oil
78%
70%
58% 67%
57%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Unr. RE RE+NoCoal RE+EERE+EE+NoCoal
bill
ioin
USD
Import cost (2050)
Policy insights
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 6
• Increasing the RE% and EE can reduce the import of fuel for power generation
➢ Support schemes for RE (solar and wind)
• Limitation on coal consumption in the power sector can reduce pollution and climate effects, fuel import dependence, although at higher total system costs.
➢ In 2030 all scenarios show a massive increase in import (coal and oil). To avoid lock-in effects, action in the short term is needed to reduce coal (import) dependence in the long term
• Mobilize domestic biomass resources
➢ Favourable tariffs for biomass use (power and industry sectors)
• Reducing import dependency for oil products
➢ Fuel efficiency standards would ensure the transformation of the transport fleet to new and efficient vehicles, both passenger and freight.
Energy Resources
(416)
(647)
(784)
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ
Energy savings by sector
Agriculture Commercial Residential Transportation Industrial
20% saving
12% saving
Key findings
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 7
• Which are the most important areas for EE?
➢ EE scenarios achieve and exceed the targets in VNEEPIII (high) projection in 2030
➢ Industry (process heat): cement, iron & steel, pulp and paper, food and textile
➢ Road transport: higher fuel economy standards
➢ Residential: cooking, cooling and lighting
Energy Efficiency
Key findings
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 8
• What will be the impact of energy efficiency (EE) measures?
➢ The combined effects of EE and industrial CHPs could reduce electricity generation for centralized plants by 9% in 2030 and 30% in 2050.
Energy Efficiency
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
Central Power Generation
RE Target RE Target+EE
RE+NoNewCoal RE+EE+NoNewCoal
-0.9%
-4.6%
-9.4%
-11.2%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2020 2030 2040 2050
Bill
ion
USD
Cost savings with EE measures
Variable O&M Fixed O&M Demand investment
Supply investment Fuel Percentage change
Policy insights
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 9
EE technologies and measures can bring about the combined effect of fuel and costsavings, with effects across all economic sectors.
➢ Adherence and continuation of the programmes outlined in VNEEPIII is necessary for total energy system development.
➢ Establishment of the required implementation schemes to support the introduction of more advanced EE devices and processes, e.g. enhancement of:
• Minimum efficiency performance standards (appliances in buildings, air conditioning)
• Fuel economy standards in transport
• Energy audits in energy-intensive industries
• Energy management (ISO 50.001) in large industry sectors
• Voluntary agreements schemes with economic incentives
➢ Framework to support investments in (small- and medium-scale) industrial CHP plants, prioritizing the use of local resources, e.g. biomass.
Energy Efficiency
Key findings
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 10
• What are the key developments of renewable energy technologies in the future?
➢ RE (wind and solar) is expected to undertake a major development in the mid- to long-term, contributing to GHG reduction and energy independence.
➢ In the period 2020-2030, the yearly capacity build-up equals 1 GW/year for wind(even in the unrestricted scenario) and 2-5 GW/year for solar in 2030-2040.
Renewable Energy
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Un
rest
rict
ed
RE
Targ
et
RE+
No
New
Co
al
RE+
EE
RE+
EE+N
oN
ewC
oal
Un
rest
rict
ed
RE
Targ
et
RE+
No
New
Co
al
RE+
EE
RE+
EE+N
oN
ewC
oal
Un
rest
rict
ed
RE
Targ
et
RE+
No
New
Co
al
RE+
EE
RE+
EE+N
oN
ewC
oal
2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050
GW
/ye
ar
RE Capacity build-up
Wind Solar
Key findings
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 11
• What are the key developments of renewable energy technologies in the future?
➢ Development of solar PV mainly in South region and wind power in South Central region.
Renewable Energy
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
North NorthCentral
CentreCentral
Highland SouthCentral
South
GW
Regional power capacity in RE scenario
Solar
Wind offshore
Wind onshore
Hydro
Other RE
Biomass
Oil
Imp. LNG
Dom. NG
Imp. coal
Dom. coal
Policy insights
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 12
➢ Power system planning of RE (solar and wind) must be a focus in the coming PDP8.
➢ Prepare the grid for large shares of wind and solar power.
➢ Transition from FiT to technology-neutral auctioning of large-scale RE projects to ensure market competition and low RE prices - depending on, among others, grid connection of the plants, international standard PPA and an efficient bidding process.
➢ To ensure the extensive expansion of RE, especially PVs in the southern region, in a cost efficient way it is important to ensure involvement at provincial level.
➢ A framework for the development of offshore wind should be established as it requires an investment- and knowledge-intensive technology.
Renewable Energy
Key findings
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 13
• How can Vietnam balance the future power system? What are the key solutions?
➢ Gradual shift in the balancing role from the current hydropower installations to battery storage technology in the long term.
Power System Balancing
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
GW
Curtailment
Import
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Other RE
Biomass
Dom. NG
Imp. coal
Dom. coal
Demand
Hourly dispatch in RE scenario (week 4)
2020 2030
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70Curtailment
Import 3rd
Battery
Solar
Wind offshore
Wind
Hydro
Other RE
Biomass
Imp. LNG
Dom. NG
Key findings
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 14
• How can Vietnam balance the future power system? What are the key solutions?
➢ Even at high RE shares the system can be balanced: battery storage mainly in South region and 30-60 GW investment in interconnectors transmission capacity (2050).
Power System Balancing
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200Curtailment
Import
Battery
Solar
Wind offshore
Wind
Hydro
Other RE
Biomass
Imp. coal
Dom. coal
Demand0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
GW
Curtailment
Import
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Other RE
Biomass
Dom. NG
Imp. coal
Dom. coal
Demand
2020 2050
Hourly dispatch in RE scenario (week 4)
Policy insights
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 15
The planning of the future power system in Vietnam should ensure that the required technology and market components are in place to secure a timely balancing of the system.
• In the mid to long term, the development of the transmission grid will be required to offer additional flexibility: allocation of the required financial resources both at national and regional level
• Battery storage represents a robust solution in the long-term: market barriers to its swift introduction should be investigated and addressed, thus laying out the favorable market conditions.
• Other measures:
• Market coupling with neighboring countries can bring multiple benefits, including improved competition, security of supply, sharing of reserves, reduced need for storage, improved balancing in relation to hydro (wet/dry years), wind and solar.
• Flexibility measures in thermal power plants, pumped hydro, demand responseand further development of forecasting systems.
Power System Balancing
Key findings
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 16
• What is the impact of the future energy system on GHG emissions?
➢ GHG emissions increase at 9.7% p.a. in 2020-2030 and 3.6% p.a. in 2030-2040 (RE Target), while fulfilling the 25% NDC target (with EE measures).
➢ A combination of EE, RE and limitation on coal use can reduce these impacts, with more significance in the power sector and less effects in the demand sectors(industry).
Climate and Local pollution
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2020 2030 2040 2050
Bill
ion
USD
Mill
ion
to
n C
O2
RE Target RE Target+EE RE+EE+NoNewCoal
RE+NoNewCoal Unrestricted GDP
Key findings
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 17
• What is the impact of the future energy system on air pollution?
➢ Significant impact on air pollution and people’s health from the power sector, if nomeasures are taken to control pollutants emissions, especially from coal-fired plants.
➢ RE support and limitations on new coal thermal plants will reduce these impacts.
Climate and Local pollution
05
101520253035404550
Un
rest
rict
ed
RE
Targ
et
RE+
No
New
Co
al
RE+
EE
RE+
EE+N
oN
ewC
oal
Un
rest
rict
ed
RE
Targ
et
RE+
No
New
Co
al
RE+
EE
RE+
EE+N
oN
ewC
oal
Un
rest
rict
ed
RE
Targ
et
RE+
No
New
Co
al
RE+
EE
RE+
EE+N
oN
ewC
oal
Un
rest
rict
ed
RE
Targ
et
RE+
No
New
Co
al
RE+
EE
RE+
EE+N
oN
ewC
oal
2020 2030 2040 2050
Bill
ion
USD
Cost of pollution (power sector)
SO2 NOx PM
Policy insights
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 18
The impact of the energy system (supply, power and demand sectors) on climate and other externalities should be tackled by addressing reduction in GHG and otherpollutants. Measures to consider:
➢ Comparison and harmonization of RE targets and emission targets (e.g. NDC)
➢ Incentives to reduce CO2 emissions: CO2 taxes or CO2 caps combined withemission trading schemes and other market mechanisms.
➢ Tighten air pollution control measures in both central and decentral installations (power generation and industry).
Climate and Local pollution
Conclusions
May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 19
Energy resources
RE expansion and EE measures can reduce energy imports.
Reversing coal increase trend willlower reliance on imported
resources, although at highersystem cost
Energy Efficiency
Energy savings bring cost savingsat system level
Prioritize process heat in industryand residential appliances
Renewable Energy
Investments in solar and windpower are cost-optimal for the
system
Introduction of technology-neutral auctions
Power System Balancing
The system can integrate high RE shares mainly through storagetechnologies (e.g. batteries)
Climate and Local Pollution
Combination of EE, RE and limitation on coal use will reduce
CO2 emissions by 40%
Health costs pollution from power plants need to be addressed
Danish Energy Agency
Thank you
Danish Energy Agency
Giada Venturini,
Advisor
Mail: gve@ens.dk
Global Cooperation
Danish Energy Agency
April 12, 2019Danish Energy Agency 20
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