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Danish Energy Agency Danish Energy Agency Technology Data in Energy Planning Anton Beck Director Global Cooperation Danish Energy Agency

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Page 1: Technology Data in Energy Planningvepg.vn/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Presentations... · diezel thermal 3.3%. Distribution of technology 3 Coal thermal (dom. Coal) Hydro power Import

Danish Energy AgencyDanish Energy Agency

Technology Data in

Energy Planning

Anton Beck

Director

Global Cooperation

Danish Energy Agency

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Danish Energy Agency

Long Term Planning

for a long time- First Energy plan in 1976

First Danish national energy plan was signed in 1976.

- Since then…… there has been a long tradition of broad political long

term energy agreements.

- 2018 Energy PlanThe latest is from 2018 and was signed by ALL Danish

political parties. It includes 3*600 MW offshore wind

power and the ambition to cover 55% of the Danish

energy consumption from renewables by 2030.

2

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Danish Energy Agency

Long-Term Energy Planning

Input Energy system models Output

• Demand projection

• Fuel price projections

• Technology data

• CO2 price projections

• Historical data (statistics and existing stock)

• TIMES

• Balmorel

• LEAP

• Plexos

• Energy Outlook Reports

• Exploratory Scenarios

• Analyses for e.g. policy recommendations

Page 3

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Danish Energy Agency

o Yearly Danish Energy Outlook

o Grid Planning

o National Energy and Climate plans

o Energy scenarios for 2020, 2035 and 2050

o AD hoc calculationseg. subsidy level assesment

o The common point of references of all analyes

How is the Technology Catalogue Used in DEA?

Page 4

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Danish Energy Agency

E.g. costs of solar power has roughlyhalved within the last 5 years.

By using old data one risks to implement non-optimal scenarios…

Or make false predictions of the development of the system.

The risk of not using updated data

Page 5

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Danish Energy Agency

An Open and Continuous Process

An open and transparent process is key to achieve:

- The highest quality of the product

- Wide acceptance of the data

The Technology Catalogue should be maintained continuously in order for it to stay updated.

Page 6

Technology prioritization

Data collection, analysis and drafting of catalogue

Deep-diveworkshop

Involving externalstakeholders

Finalisationof catalogue

Publication

Identification of new technologies

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Danish Energy AgencyPage 7

Global Cooperation

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Danish Energy AgencyDanish Energy Agency

Thank you for your

attention!

Danish Energy Agency

Anton Beck

Head of division

Global Cooperation

Danish Energy Agency

8

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Danish Energy AgencyDanish Energy Agency

Technology Data in

Energy Planning

Danish Energy Agency

Anton Beck

Director

Global Cooperation

Danish Energy Agency

9

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Danish Energy Agency

Open Process

An open and transparent process is key to achieve:

- The highest quality of the product

- Wide acceptance of the data

Page 10

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Danish Energy AgencyDanish Energy Agency

Case study

Vietnam

Danish Energy Agency11

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Overview of power sector technology

in Vietnam

1

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Overview of power sector technology

o Vietnam power system in 2018:• ~50 GW of total installed capacity

• ~220 billion kWh of power generation

• 3 main technology: • Hydro power: 40% (Inc. Small hydro)

• Coal-fired plant: 38%

• Gas turbine (Dom. gas): 15%

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

P (

MW

)

A (

GW

h)

Power generation (GWh) Installed capacity (MW)Large hydro34.1%

Coal thermal38.3%

CCGT15.1%

Small hydro6.7%

Import1.2%

Wind power0.5%

Solar power0.2%

Biomass0.7%

Oil, gas& diezel

thermal3.3%

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Distribution of technology

3

▪ Coal thermal (dom. Coal)▪ Hydro power▪ Import (China)

▪ Coal thermal▪ Solar▪ Wind

▪ Hydro▪ Coal thermal

▪ Hydro▪ Solar▪ Import (Laos)

▪ Hydro▪ Solar▪ Wind

▪ Hydro▪ Coal thermal▪ CCGT▪ Solar▪ Wind

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Trend over the year

4

• Hydro: Tends to reduce proportion due to potential exploitation• Coal thermal plant: Rapidly developing, imported coal used• Gas turbine (combined cycled): Domestic gas, no new plants in recent

years• Renewable energy: Attractive, raising in proportion.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Renewable

Imported

CCGT

Gas thermal

Oil thermal

Coal-fired

Hydropower

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Coal thermal technology

• 2018: 26 coal-fired power plants ~ total 19 GW– 23 sub-critical: 16 Pulverised, 7 CFB– 3 super-critical: Vinh Tan 1,4,4 Ext

• Challenges:– Existing power plants: old technology, low efficiency, inflexible– Mature technology: difficult to increasing efficiency (SC: 41% &

USC: 47%); follow direction of reducing pollution &environmental impact.

– Low flexibility of current plants, need to increase in futute(integrate high penetration of VRE).

– Domestic resources are limited (~35 mil.ton/year), depend onimported coal (55 mil.ton & 85 mil.ton in 2025& 2030forecasted)

– Finding location for new plant and coal importing port– More pollution (CO2, SOx, NOx, PM2.5) compare to other

technology, thus more environmental impact; difficult to acceptby public.

– Combined technology using both imported & domestic coal.

Northeast

North Central

Southern Coast

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Gas turbine technology• 2018: 12 gas-turbine power plants ~

total 7.4 GW– 2 single cycle plants

– 10 combined cycle plants

• Domestic gas

• Location:– Southern Coast

Nhon Trach 2 CCGT

• Challenges:– Mature technology: difficult to increasing efficiency (GT: 36-40% & CCGT: 59-65%),

follow direction of reduce NOx and improving flexibility

– Domestic gas are limited and rapid decline after 2021; depend on imported LNG.

– LNG price depend on oil price; being clean fuel but higher cost compare to othertechnology.

– Peaking GT compete with other tech such as PSPP, BESS

– Expand lifetime & conversion of current plant (dom.gas) to use LNG

– Limited location for new plant (convenient for building importing LNG port)

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Hydro power technology• 2018: 100 hydro power plants ~ 20000 MW (of total ~26000 MW

planed):– Large hydro ~ 16800 MW– Small hydro ~ 3300 MW

• Mostly large hydro ~ reservoir/ small hydro ~ run of river• Power generation + irrigation water supply + flood control.

• Challenges:– Available only on some locations ~ limited

resource, large hydro almost exploited– Change from bottom and middle operation

to peaking.– Research to expand current plants; using

new technology (low head, bulb turbine,…)– Reduce environmental impact: Flooding,

flood discharge, erosion,…– Increasing importing (HPP) from neighbor.

Son La HPP

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Solar PV technology• ~20000 MWp register where 7,700 MWp approved.• 2019 March: 8 first PV plants ~ total 290 MW:

– Phong Dien, Krong Pa, Srepok1, Quang Minh, BP Solar 1, Vinh Tan, TTC 1, Yen Dinh.

• New technology (in VN), more likely to improve and reduce costs

• Challenges:– Unstable, generate no power at night make difficult in

forecast and operation. Do not support system stability due to no inertia.

– Concentrate at some specific places (e.g South Central, Highland) lead to problem of transmission

– Handle with battery after use, commercial ability of solar recycling technology

– High land occupy: 1 – 1.2 ha/MWp may limit use.– Policy to attract investor and integrate high penetration

into power system. Phong Dien PV solar farm

Highland

South Central

South

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Wind power technology• 2018 March: 7 wind power plants ~ total 235 MW, almost onshore and

near shore:– Huong Linh 30 MW (Quang Tri), Tuy Phong 30 MW (Ninh Thuan), Dam Nai 7.9 MW (Ninh

Thuan), Mui Dinh 37.6 MW (Ninh Thuan), Phu Lac 24 MW (Binh Thuan), Phu Quy 6 MW(Binh Thuan), Bac Lieu 99.2 MW (Bac Lieu)

• Commercial technology but is still constantly improved anddecreased in cost (improve flexibility, low wind turbine, offshorewind, improve turbine efficiency).

• Challenges:– Offshore wind potential has not been investigated.

– Unstable and intermittent make difficult in forecastand operation.

– Concentrate in South Central, Sothern Coast lead toproblem of transmission.

Phu Lac wind farm

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Pump storage and Battery storage

10

• Pump hydro storage:– Traditional technology, reuse water resources, less

environmental impact (8-12 hours generation)

– Efficiency 70%- 80%, difficult to increase efficiency, follow direction of improve flexibility.

– Limited location due to depends on geographical, topography, geology.

• Battery storage:̶ New technology: potential for

improvement and cost reduction̶ Flexible in installation and operation.̶ Current price is still high̶ Waste treatment technology after use is

unclear.

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Thank you for your attention !

11

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Danish Energy AgencyDanish Energy Agency

The Vietnamese

Technology Catalogue

Danish Energy Agency

Loui Algren

Advisor, The Danish Energy Agency

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Danish Energy Agency

Agenda- Why develop a Technology Catalogue?

- What is a Technology Catalogue?

- How is the Technology Catalogue

developed?

- The Vietnamese Technology Catalogue

- Recommended next steps

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Danish Energy AgencyDanish Energy Agency

Why Develop a

Technology

Catalogue?

Danish Energy Agency

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Danish Energy Agency

Energy system model setupRubbish in = rubbish out

Input Energy system models Output (scenarios)

• Fuel price projections

• CO2 price projections

• Levies, taxes and subsidies

• Technology projections

• Historical data (statistics and existing stock)

• TIMES / LEAP

• Balmorel / PLEXOS

• PSS/E / PowerFactory

• Antares

• Baseline scenario (e.g. frozenpolicy)

• Exploratory scenarios

• Anticipatory scenarios (i.e. technical and ecnomicalfeasible pathway to reach a desired target)

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Danish Energy Agency

o Yearly Danish frozen policy projection

o National Energy and Climate plans

o Energy scenarios for 2020, 2035 and 2050

o Ad hoc calculationseg. subsidy level assessment

o The common point of references of all analyses

How is the Technology Catalogue used in DEA?

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Danish Energy AgencyDanish Energy Agency

What is A Technology

Catalogue?

Danish Energy Agency

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Danish Energy Agency

A. Data sheets:

o Performance data ( Efficiency, life time, availability, start up time)

o Financial data (Investment cost, O&M cost)

o Environmental data (emissions )

o Data sets for e.g. 2015, 2020, 2030,(2014) and 2050

B. Qualitative technology descriptions

o General description of the Technologies

o Approach and assumptions for the data assessments

What is a Technology Catalogue?

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Danish Energy Agency

The

Qualitative

Description

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Danish Energy Agency

The

Quantitative

Description

Technology

Year of final investment decision 2015 2020 2030 2050 Uncertainty (2020) Uncertainty (2050) Note Ref

Energy/technical data Lower Upper Lower Upper

Generating capacity for one unit (MW) 3,5 3,5 4 5 2,0 6,0 1,5 8,0 A1 3

Average annual full-load hours 3100 3150 3200 3300 2000 4000 2000 4500 A, L 3

Forced outage (%) 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 5,0% 1,0% 5,0% B 4

Planned outage (%) 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,1% 0,5% 0,1% 0,5% C 4

Technical lifetime (years) 25 27 30 30 25 35 25 40 D 14

Construction time (years) 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1 3 1 3 E 4

Space requirement (1000m2/MW) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- F

Primary regulation (% per 30 seconds) G

Secondary regulation (% per minute) G

Nominal investment (M€/MW) incl grid

connection1,07 0,99 0,91 0,83 0,9 1,1 0,7 1,0 H 16, 2, 4

Nominal investment (M€/MW) excl. grid

connection (5% of nom. Investment)1,02 0,94 0,86 0,79 0,8 1,0 0,6 0,9 I, M 16, 2, 4

- of which equipment 75% 75% 75% 75% 70% 80% 70% 80% 4

- of which installation 25% 25% 25% 25% 20% 30% 20% 30% 4

Fixed O&M (€/MW/year) 25.600 23.900 22.300 21.200 21.510 26.290 16.960 25.440 J,N

Variable O&M (€/MWh) 2,8 2,5 2,3 2,1 2,3 2,8 1,7 2,5 J,N 4, 15, 18

Technology specific data

Rotor diameter 120 120 130 150 90 130 100 150 K 4

Hub height 90 90 100 110 85 120 85 150 4

Specific power (W/m2) 309 309 301 283 270 350 250 350

Average capacity factor 37% 37% 38% 39% 23% 46% 23% 51% 4

Average availability (%) 97% 97% 98% 98% 99% 95% 99% 95% 4

20 Large wind turbines on land

Regulation ability

Financial data (in 2015€) o Data for 2020, 2030

and 2050

o To be included direct in the databases for the modelling / analyses

o Notes, that explains the data

o References

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Danish Energy Agency

Simple learningcurveapproach

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Danish Energy AgencyDanish Energy Agency

The Process

Danish Energy Agency

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Danish Energy Agency

How it was done

1. Kick-off workshop in June 2018

2. Decision on which technologies to include

3. Collection of data for local cases and for international projections

4. Development of methodology depending on the available data

5. Comments on draft TC

6. Midway workshop in October 2018

7. Focused hearing for relevant stakeholders in January 2019

8. Finalisation and launch in May 2019

Maybe illustrate with timeline

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Danish Energy Agency

The future process

TC owner

ReferenceGroup

Consultant

Experts

1. Reference Group suggests updates of the catalogue

2. EREA decide on updates and hire a consultant for the task

3. Consultant writes a draft update and presents it to the technology experts at a deep dive workshop

4. Consultant writes an updated draft and receives written feedback from the technology experts and all other interested stakeholders

5. Consultant writes final version

6. EREA publish final version

PublicHearing

Publication

1 2 3 4

56

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Danish Energy AgencyDanish Energy Agency

The Vietnamese

Technology

CatalogueDanish Energy Agency

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Danish Energy Agency

The Vietnamese Technology Catalogue

1. Covers the following Technologies

2. Focus on the 5 most important

3. Assessments based on data from existing Vietnamese plants

4. Two external workshops which included good discussions and comments

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Danish Energy Agency

Recommended next steps

1. Next version should take the received comments into account [examples?]

2. Some technologies develop very fast. Hence regular updates are necessary else the value of and confidence in the TC vanish

3. Encourage the energy sector to engage in the process

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Danish Energy AgencyDanish Energy Agency

Thank you!

Danish Energy Agency

Loui Algren

Advisor, The Danish Energy Agency

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Vietnam Energy Outlook Report 2019

Key findings and draft recommendations

16th of May 2019, Hanoi

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Agenda

2

10.05-10.15 Introduction to the Vietnam Energy Outlook 2019

Today and the opportunities on the long term

Mr. Jakob Lundsager

Long term advisor for DEPP

10.15-10.35 Models and scenarios for decision making process in

Denmark

Mr. Jakob Lundsager

Long term advisor for DEPP

10.35-11.00 Analysis framework and results

How modeling and scenarios lead to the results

EA Energy Analyses

& Institute of Energy

11.00-11.30 Key findings and draft recommendations

What EOR can shed light on for the future energy

system

DEA Advisor Ms. Giada

Venturini

11.30-12.20 Q&A Session All

12.20 Lunch for all participants

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INTRODUCTION

3

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Background for EOR19

4

Development Engagement 1 - Danish Energy Partnership Programme with MOIT

- Government-to-government capacity building within long term energy planning

ADVANCED MODELLINGIMPROVING DATA

Technology catalogue

Fuel priceprojection

Database for input

Energy demand

projection

Balmorel power system model

TIMES all sector

energy model

THOROUGH ANALYSIS

Vietnam Energy

OutlookReport 2019

Support for PDP8

New model server

Vietnam Energy

OutlookReport 2019

PSS/E Grid Modelling

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TIMES

Electricity demand

Biomass allocation

PSS/E

Comparison of power sector

EOR model setup – combined strengths

Balmorel

Gen. and Trans. cap

Dispatch snapshots

PSS/E

Transmission losses

Trans. capacity

5

Three model setup: One model cannot cover all details

Economic optimization on all sectorsTIMES

• Geographic resolution: three/one regions

• Time resolution: 12 time slices

Economic optimization on power sectorBalmorel

• Detailed representation of the power sector

• Geographic resolution: six regions

• Time resolution: 364 time slices (26 two-week periods, 14 time steps each)

Technical model on grid stability PSS/E

• Power flow

• Geographic resolution: +/- 600 nodes

• Time resolution: nanoseconds

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Stakeholders involved in DE1

International consultant:EA Energy

Analyses A/s

Local consultant:Institute of Energy

Vietnam (IE)

Implemention:Electricity and RE Agency of Vietnam (EREA)

Danish Energy Agency (DEA)

Embassy of Denmark in Hanoi

Vietnam project officePower System

Model Trainees:IE, NLDC, USTH, EPU and more

Consulted: All energy planning

stakeholders

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Process of EOR19

Balmorel data reportTIMES data reportTechnology CatalogueFuel price projection report

Technical reportEnergy Outlook

Report

7

• Policy perspective• In focus now• To be published in

October• Based on the Technical

Report

• Analytical perspective• Draft report is being finalised• Based on extensive work on

data and modelling

• Input data for modelling• Draft reports are being finalised• Documentation and development of

data used in the modelling

October 2018: Kick-off

workshop

August-October2018: Balmorel

training

April 2019: Workshop on

approach and draftfindings

May 2019: Workshop on key findings and

draftrecommendations

October 2019: Launch of

EOR19

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Workshop purpose

8

• To get feedback on the EOR19 key findings and draft recommendations– Five themes

– All energy sector with a focus on power sector

– Mid-term and long term perspective

– Key characteristics of energy system development

– Scenario based recommendations

• Based on the feedback the EOR19 will be finalised

Where to focus?

Is something missing?

Is it useful and relevant?

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Vietnamese energy landscape

9

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Total primary energy

10

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

kgO

E/U

SD

KTO

E

Electricity import

Hydro

Renewables

Biomass

Gas

Oil

Coal

Energy intensity

Strong growth: Primarily covered by increased coal usageNote: Shift in data source by 2015

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Fuel import and export

11

-43%

-22%-26%

-14% -12% -14%-11%

-4%

6%

16%19%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

KTO

E

Export Import Net import Import dependency

Change to net import: 2015 with a trend towards increased import

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RE ressources and consumption centres

12

Large solar potential but with long transmission to load centres

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GHG emissions

13

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1994 2000 2010 2014

Mt

CO

2 e

q

Wastes

Agricultural

Industrial processes

Energy

LULUCF

Strong growth: Energy consumption has increasing share of emissions

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Challenges

14

• Implementation of energy efficiency in a cost effective way

Large increase in energy demand – GDP growth continues

• The limited domestic resources of natural gas, oil, coal, hydro and biomass are being utilised

• Increased dependence on fuel import

• Challenges in developing new terminals for coal and LNG import

Energy resources – Coal and oil dominate

• Integration of wind and solar into the power system, geographical as well as temporal challenges

• Effective policy instruments for RE expansion

Renewable energy – Great potential

• Transmission lines and hydro power play a key role today

• In the future increasing demand and RE requires new solutions

Power balancing – increased challenge as RE develops

• Air pollution spurs public resistance towards central coal power plants

Climate change – Emissions are growing

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Models and scenarios for decision

making in Denmark

Jakob Stenby Lundsager

Long Term Advisor

Danish Energy Partnership Programme

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 1

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The use of models in DEA

In-house expertise

• 30 years of experience with using models

• Broad portfolio of different types of models for different purposes

Understand technical and economical consequenses:

• Planning of the energy system

• Design of policies and regulation

• Evaluation of progress

• Evaluate specific technologies and their impact

• Knowledge building

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 2

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Policy is the framework for designing

the analyses and the models

Data

• Technology data (cost, efficiency, development)

• Fuel prices

• Taxes & subsidies

• Economicdevelopmet

• Historical data (consumption, plants, operation etc.)

• Time series (consumption, vind, solar

Models

• Consumption(business and households)

• Transport

• Electricity and districtheating

Analyses

• Annual frozen policy outlook

• Fossil free scenarios for 2050

• Scenarios for 2030

• Projections on technologies and electricity price

• Impact assesment

Policy

• Long term energyagreement

• Subsidies and taxes

• Licensing of RE

• International reporting to EU and UN

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 3

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May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 4

Annual Energy and Climate Outlook

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Annual Energy and Climate Outlook

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 5

• Annual Outlook for period 2020 - 2030

• Frozen policy-approach

– only decided policies are included

• Covers all sectors from coal and gas extraction to demand side sectors

• Multiple model setup of 3 linked models

• Demand side: IntERACT (TIMES-CGE model covering

consumption)

• Transport: Spreadsheet transport model

• Power sector: RAMSES (detailed hourly model)

• Input calculation on expansion of onshore wind, biogas, solar heating

• Output: Primary and final energy demand, fuel consumption, GHG

emission, RE-share

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RE-shares

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 6

2021: 43.6%2030: 39.8%

2021: 86.0%

2030: 57.5%

2020: 8.7%2030: 12.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

%

RE-share (RES) RE-share Electricity (RES-E) RE-share Transport (RES-T)

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May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

mil

lio

n t

on

ne

s C

O2

-eq

.

Non-ETS emissions Accumulated shortfall Reduction path 2021-2030

Emissions for transport, agriculture, household and

partly manufacturing

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Uses of the annual outlook

• Evaluate progress toward set goals

• Evaluate new initiatives

• Put the spotlight on potential problems

• Cost-effectiveness of different solutions

• System-wide effects of various changes in policies and prices

• Basis for project plans and evaluations (consultants)

• Reference for Universities, Industry, NGO’s

• Inputs to IEA, EU, UN

• ”Official” reference point inside ministry - other projections and

outlooks are alligned with the outlook

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 8

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2050 fossil free scenarios

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 9

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Included Not included

How could a RE

system look like in

2050?

Technically viable?

Use of resources?

Security of supply?

Cost (bottum-up)?

Sensitivities?

Oil and gas sector.

Incentives (taxes,

subsidies,

regulation)?

Macro-economic

effects?

Recommendations?

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5 scenarios for 2035/50

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May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 12

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Uses of the 2050 fossil free

scenarios

• Consistent base for analyses decided in Energy

Agreement 2012

• Put the spotlight on challenges of long term goals

• Focused public discussions on concrete issues having

proved that a fossil free scenario is possible and

feasible

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 13

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How the output of models and

analysis is used

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 14

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May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 15

• Improve decision

makers knowledge

• Common consistent

base for analyses

• Challenges for long

term goals

• Policy evaluation

• Challenges for short

term goals

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Summary

• Models and scenarios are key elements in

making smart choices regarding the

development of the energy system

• Understanding the feasibility of different options

– technically and economically

• Different scenarios/analysis for different

purposes

• Good modelling starts with asking the right

questions!May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 16

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Thank you for the attention

Jakob Stenby Lundsager

[email protected]

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 17

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Analysis framework and results

How modeling and scenarios lead to the results

Nguyễn Ngọc Hưng, Institute of Energy

Mikael Togeby, Ea Energy Analyses

1

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Scenarios

2

C0 Unrestricted

C1 RE target

C3 No new coal

C4 RE target EE

C5 Combination

C1 RE target (43% RE)

C1 EL1

40% RE RE2 EL2

50% RE RE3 EL3

60% RE RE4 EL4

70% RE RE5 EL5

80% RE RE6 EL6

Core scenarios

Green Power scenarios

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Core scenarios

RE target No Coal EE

43% in 2050 No new capacity after

2025

Computed in TIMES

C0 Unrestricted

C1 RE Target X

C2 RE+No coal X X

C3 RE + EE X X

C4 Combination X X X

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Analyses of all sectors: TIMES

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TIMES-Vietnam

• Representation of whole energy system

– Reference energy system with aggregated power sector

• Three regions for power sector (North, Central, South) and one region for demand sectors with 12 time steps

– 3 seasons and 4 diurnal slices

• Least-cost optimization

– Most cost-effective pattern of resource use and technology deployment

• 5 demand sectors (industry, commercial, residential, agriculture, transport) and 12 industrial subsectors

• Scenario assessments

– Evaluation of policies and programs

– Quantifies the costs and technology choices

5

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Total primary energy supply

6

• Domestic coal, oil, gas are fully exploited• High shares of fossil fuel in TPES• Energy efficiency reduce TPES by 11.9% and 21% in 2030 and 2050

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

C0

-UN

R

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

E

C4

-REN

NC

EE

C0

-UN

R

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

E

C4

-REN

NC

EE

C0

-UN

R

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

E

C4

-REN

NC

EE

C0

-UN

R

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

E

C4

-REN

NC

EE

2020 2030 2040 2050

PJ

Total primary energy supplyWind

Solar

Oil Products

Oil Crude

Hydro

Gas

ElectricityImportCoal

Biofuels

-2.3%

-11.9%

-15.4%

-21.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

-3500

-3000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

2020 2030 2040 2050

PJ

Changes in TPES due to energy efficiency

Biofuels Coal

Electricity Import Gas

Hydro Oil Crude

Oil Products Solar

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Renewable energy & Imported fuel dependency

7

21.6%

17.2%

19.6% 19.1%

23.6%

19.2%20.5%

19.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

C1-RE C3-REEE

PJ

Main RE sources and RE share in TPES

Biofuels Hydro Solar Wind RE share

35%34%

34%31%

33%

61%60%

58%

55%51%

75%

67%

59%63%

57%

79%

71%

58%

68%

58%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

C0

-UN

R

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

E

C4

-REN

NC

EE

C0

-UN

R

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

E

C4

-REN

NC

EE

C0

-UN

R

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

E

C4

-REN

NC

EE

C0

-UN

R

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

E

C4

-REN

NC

EE

2020 2030 2040 2050

PJ

Fuel imports and Import dependency

Coal Electricity Gas

Oil Crude Oil Products Import share in TPES

• Low RE share in TPES• Increased fossil fuels imported with high import dependency

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Coal and gas supply-demand balances

• Huge coal imports required to for power generation in case of no RE target and without EE implementation

• Gas import is main alternative for industrial uses and power generation in case of no new imported coal-fired plant

8

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

C0

-UN

RC

1-R

EC

2-R

ENN

CC

3-R

EEE

C4

-REN

NC

EEC

0-U

NR

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

EC

4-R

ENN

CEE

C0

-UN

RC

1-R

EC

2-R

ENN

CC

3-R

EEE

C4

-REN

NC

EEC

0-U

NR

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

EC

4-R

ENN

CEE

2020 2030 2040 2050

PJ

Coal supply-demand balance

Import

DomesticSupply

Residential

Coal-firedPower

Industrial -ProcessHeat

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

C0

-UN

R

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

E

C4

-REN

NC

EE

C0

-UN

R

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

E

C4

-REN

NC

EE

C0

-UN

R

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

E

C4

-REN

NC

EE

C0

-UN

R

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

E

C4

-REN

NC

EE

2020 2030 2040 2050P

J

Natural gas supply-demand balance

Import

Domestic Supply

Transport

Refineries

Gas fired Power

Gas fired CHPs

Industrial -Process Heat

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Total final energy consumption

9

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

C0

-UN

R

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

E

C4

-REN

NC

EE

C0

-UN

R

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

E

C4

-REN

NC

EE

C0

-UN

R

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

E

C4

-REN

NC

EE

C0

-UN

R

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

E

C4

-REN

NC

EE2020 2030 2040 2050

PJ

Total final energy consumption by sector

Agriculture Commercial Industrial Residential Transportation

-3.6%

-12.2%

-16.6%

-19.7%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

2020 2030 2040 2050

PJ

Changes in TFEC due to energy efficiency

Agriculture Commercial

Industrial Residential

Transportation Percentage change

• Large shares of industrial in TFEC• Energy saving potential 12.2% and 19.7% in 2030 and 2050

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Energy saving potential by sector

10

-6.1%

-11.0%

-15.8%

-20.5%

-1.2%

-8.9%

-11.6%

-16.3%

-7.0%

-22.7%-23.6%

-24.5%

-6.7%-13.4%

-23.7% -23.5%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

2020 2030 2040 2050

Energy saving by sector in percentage term

Commercial Industrial Residential Transportation

-3.6%

-8.4%

-12.2%

VNEEP 3 '19-25, -7%

VNEEP 3 '26-30, -10%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

02020 2025 2030

PJ

Energy saving in comparision with VNEEP 3 targets

Agriculture Commercial

Industrial demand devices Residential

Transportation Percentage change

VNEEP 3 '19-25 VNEEP 3 '26-30

• In 2030, energy saving by sector are 22.7% by residential, 13.4% by transport, 11% by commercial and 8.9% by industrial

• Economic potentials of energy efficiency higher VNEEP 3 targets**VNEEP targets will be compared with a baseline demand

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Energy saving by sector and end-use

11

0 9 13 4 1 1 168 38

140170

10 3 27 0

139

6

-5

1 1 2260

15 2 3 17

217

109

442

239

32 9

135

1

526

134

-18

5

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Bu

ildin

g Eq

uip

men

t

Co

oki

ng

Ligh

tin

g

Spac

e C

oo

ling

Spac

e H

eati

ng

Wat

er H

eati

ng

Ind

ust

rial

- F

eed

sto

ck

Ind

ust

rial

- M

ach

ine

Dri

ve

Ind

ust

rial

- O

ther

Fac

iliti

es

Ind

ust

rial

- P

roce

ss H

eat

Co

oki

ng

Ligh

tin

g

Ref

rige

rati

on

Spac

e C

oo

ling

Wat

er H

eati

ng

Car

& M

oto

rcyc

le

Co

mm

erci

al

Trai

n

Wat

er

Bu

ildin

g Eq

uip

men

t

Co

oki

ng

Ligh

tin

g

Spac

e C

oo

ling

Spac

e H

eati

ng

Wat

er H

eati

ng

Ind

ust

rial

- F

eed

sto

ck

Ind

ust

rial

- M

ach

ine

Dri

ve

Ind

ust

rial

- O

ther

Fac

iliti

es

Ind

ust

rial

- P

roce

ss H

eat

Co

oki

ng

Ligh

tin

g

Ref

rige

rati

on

Spac

e C

oo

ling

Wat

er H

eati

ng

Car

& M

oto

rcyc

le

Co

mm

erci

al

Trai

n

Wat

er

COM IND RSD TRN COM IND RSD TRN

'2030 '2050

PJ

• Main areas for energy saving: industrial heat processes and motors, residential cooking and space cooling, transport car & motors

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Total effects of EE & decentralized generators

12

265.4

571.8

0.1%

2.9% 5.2%

8.6%

3.8%

9.8%

21.4%

28.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2020 2030 2040 2050

TWh

Effects of EE and CHP on centralized generation requirements Saving

Decentralized

Remainder

PDP7-R electricitygeneration

Decentralizedshare

Total percentagereduction

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CO2 emission

13

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

C0

-UN

R

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

E

C4

-REN

NC

EE

C0

-UN

R

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

E

C4

-REN

NC

EE

C0

-UN

R

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

E

C4

-REN

NC

EE

C0

-UN

R

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

E

C4

-REN

NC

EE

2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ion

to

ns

CO

2

Agriculture Commercial Industry Power Sector

Residential Supply Transport

NDC2-BAU, 643.2

C1-RE, 532.8

C3-REEE, 456.0

NDC2-U8, 591.7

NDC2-C25, 482.4

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2020 2030

Mt

CO

2

• With RE targets and EE efforts, reductions in CO2 emissions will be higher than NDC targets

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Total system cost

14

• Energy efficiency reduce total system cost 10.9% by 2030 and 17.7% by 2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350C

0-U

NR

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

E

C4

-REN

NC

EE

C0

-UN

R

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

E

C4

-REN

NC

EE

C0

-UN

R

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

E

C4

-REN

NC

EE

C0

-UN

R

C1

-RE

C2

-REN

NC

C3

-REE

E

C4

-REN

NC

EE

2020 2030 2040 2050

Bn

USD

20

15

Variable Fixed O&M Demand investment Supply investment Fuel

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Detailed analyses of power sector development: Balmorel

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Balmorel

• Description of all individual power plants– Fuel, efficiency

• Hourly: – Demand

– Wind and solar profiles

• Optimal dispatch

• Least cost investments – Generation

– Transmission

16

Transparent• Methods• Data

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POWER SECTOR RESULTS

17

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OBSERVATION 1: WIND AND SOLAR

18

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TWh

19

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

C0 Unrestricted C1 RE target

RE

shar

e

TWh

Battery

Solar

Wind offshore

Wind

Hydro

Other RE

Biomass

Oil

Imp. LNG

Dom. NG

Imp. coal

Dom. coal

RE share

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TWh

20

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

C0 Unrestricted C1 RE target

TWh

Solar

Wind offshore

Wind

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Wind and solar

• Wind and solar is attractive!

– First a balanced expansion

• 2030: 39 TWh wind; 24 TWh solar

– End years: More solar

• 2050: 90 TWh; 191 TWh solar (RE Target scenario)

• Reduce:

– Fuel import

– CO2 emission

21

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OBSERVATION 2: STORAGE

22

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Week 47, 2030

23

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

T00

1T0

07

T01

3T0

19

T02

5T0

31

T03

7T0

43

T04

9T0

55

T06

1T0

67

T07

3T0

79

T08

5T0

91

T09

7T1

03

T10

9T1

15

T12

1T1

27

T13

3T1

39

T14

5T1

51

T15

7T1

63

GW

Battery

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Other RE

Biomass

Imp. LNG

Dom. NG

Imp. coal

Dom. coal

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Variability

2020 2030 2040 2050

Average demand (GW) 30 60 92 111

Yearly generation from wind and solar

compared to demand

5% 12% 22% 29%

Average absolute change in

demand (GW/h)

1.2 2.4 3.6 4.3

Average absolute change in

residual demand (GW/h)

1.2 2.6 5.4 8.6

24

No major change in the variability of the system

”Residual demand” = Demand minus wind and solar generation

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RE Target (C1): Wind/Solar and Storage

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2020 2030 2040 2050

C1 RE target

GW

Wind/Solar

Battery

53%

11%

26%

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Storage – and alternatives

• Both Batteries and Pumped hydro has been tested as storage– Short term storage is more attractive

– Batteries: 2-3 MWh per MW

• Alternatives to be studied:– Concentrated Solar Power, CSP, with thermal storage

– More power exchange with neighbouring countries

– Demand response• Industry

• Electric vehicles

26

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OBSERVATION 3: CO2 REDUCTION

27

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CO2: 2050

28

RE targetEmission limit

C2 Unrestricted

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Bill

ion

USD

Mt CO2 emissions

50% reduction of CO2

emissions is very realistic!

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Thank you!

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Vietnam Energy Outlook

Report 2019 Key findings and preliminary policy insights

Giada Venturini

Advisor, Danish Energy Agency

16 May, 2019

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 1

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• Themes: EOR19 focus areas

• Key Findings from the analyses

• Draft Policy Insights: from current trends to

mid- and long-term energy system

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 2

Agenda

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EOR19 themes

• Which resources will characterize the energy mix?

• What will be the level of energy self-sufficiency?

Energy Resources

• What will be the impact of energy efficiency (EE) measures?

• Which are the most important areas for EE?

Energy Efficiency

• What are the key developments of renewable energy technologies in the future?

Renewable Energy

• How can Vietnam balance the future power system? What are the key solutions?

Power System Balancing

• What is the impact of the future energy system on GHG emissions?

• What is the impact of the future energy system on air pollution?

Climate and Local pollution

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 3

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Key findings

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 4

• Which resources will characterize the energy mix?

➢ RE% up to 30% of TPES in 2050, with other domestic fuels almost fully utilized.

➢ RE% up to 60% in power sector in 2050

➢ EE will mainly reduce the consumption of oil products, partly natural gas and coal.

Energy Resources

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

Unrestricted RE Target RE+NoNewCoal RE Target+EE RE+EE+NoNewCoal

PJ

Total Primary Energy Supply

Bioenergy Coal Electricity Gas Hydro Oil Crude Oil Products Solar Wind

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Key findings

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 5

• What will be the level of energy self-sufficiency?

➢ RE support combined with a limitation on new coal-fired plants could reduce the reliance on foreign energy imports, as well as reduce emissions.

➢ The import cost can be reduced by EE measures, while a limitation on coal does not alone reduce import costs significantly.

Energy Resources

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

Unrestricted RE Target RE+NoNewCoal RE Target+EE RE+EE+NoNewCoal

PJ

Fuel imports

Coal Gas Oil

78%

70%

58% 67%

57%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Unr. RE RE+NoCoal RE+EERE+EE+NoCoal

bill

ioin

USD

Import cost (2050)

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Policy insights

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 6

• Increasing the RE% and EE can reduce the import of fuel for power generation

➢ Support schemes for RE (solar and wind)

• Limitation on coal consumption in the power sector can reduce pollution and climate effects, fuel import dependence, although at higher total system costs.

➢ In 2030 all scenarios show a massive increase in import (coal and oil). To avoid lock-in effects, action in the short term is needed to reduce coal (import) dependence in the long term

• Mobilize domestic biomass resources

➢ Favourable tariffs for biomass use (power and industry sectors)

• Reducing import dependency for oil products

➢ Fuel efficiency standards would ensure the transformation of the transport fleet to new and efficient vehicles, both passenger and freight.

Energy Resources

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(416)

(647)

(784)

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

2020 2030 2040 2050

PJ

Energy savings by sector

Agriculture Commercial Residential Transportation Industrial

20% saving

12% saving

Key findings

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 7

• Which are the most important areas for EE?

➢ EE scenarios achieve and exceed the targets in VNEEPIII (high) projection in 2030

➢ Industry (process heat): cement, iron & steel, pulp and paper, food and textile

➢ Road transport: higher fuel economy standards

➢ Residential: cooking, cooling and lighting

Energy Efficiency

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Key findings

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 8

• What will be the impact of energy efficiency (EE) measures?

➢ The combined effects of EE and industrial CHPs could reduce electricity generation for centralized plants by 9% in 2030 and 30% in 2050.

Energy Efficiency

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2020 2030 2040 2050

TWh

Central Power Generation

RE Target RE Target+EE

RE+NoNewCoal RE+EE+NoNewCoal

-0.9%

-4.6%

-9.4%

-11.2%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2020 2030 2040 2050

Bill

ion

USD

Cost savings with EE measures

Variable O&M Fixed O&M Demand investment

Supply investment Fuel Percentage change

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Policy insights

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 9

EE technologies and measures can bring about the combined effect of fuel and costsavings, with effects across all economic sectors.

➢ Adherence and continuation of the programmes outlined in VNEEPIII is necessary for total energy system development.

➢ Establishment of the required implementation schemes to support the introduction of more advanced EE devices and processes, e.g. enhancement of:

• Minimum efficiency performance standards (appliances in buildings, air conditioning)

• Fuel economy standards in transport

• Energy audits in energy-intensive industries

• Energy management (ISO 50.001) in large industry sectors

• Voluntary agreements schemes with economic incentives

➢ Framework to support investments in (small- and medium-scale) industrial CHP plants, prioritizing the use of local resources, e.g. biomass.

Energy Efficiency

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Key findings

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 10

• What are the key developments of renewable energy technologies in the future?

➢ RE (wind and solar) is expected to undertake a major development in the mid- to long-term, contributing to GHG reduction and energy independence.

➢ In the period 2020-2030, the yearly capacity build-up equals 1 GW/year for wind(even in the unrestricted scenario) and 2-5 GW/year for solar in 2030-2040.

Renewable Energy

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Un

rest

rict

ed

RE

Targ

et

RE+

No

New

Co

al

RE+

EE

RE+

EE+N

oN

ewC

oal

Un

rest

rict

ed

RE

Targ

et

RE+

No

New

Co

al

RE+

EE

RE+

EE+N

oN

ewC

oal

Un

rest

rict

ed

RE

Targ

et

RE+

No

New

Co

al

RE+

EE

RE+

EE+N

oN

ewC

oal

2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050

GW

/ye

ar

RE Capacity build-up

Wind Solar

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Key findings

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 11

• What are the key developments of renewable energy technologies in the future?

➢ Development of solar PV mainly in South region and wind power in South Central region.

Renewable Energy

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

North NorthCentral

CentreCentral

Highland SouthCentral

South

GW

Regional power capacity in RE scenario

Solar

Wind offshore

Wind onshore

Hydro

Other RE

Biomass

Oil

Imp. LNG

Dom. NG

Imp. coal

Dom. coal

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Policy insights

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 12

➢ Power system planning of RE (solar and wind) must be a focus in the coming PDP8.

➢ Prepare the grid for large shares of wind and solar power.

➢ Transition from FiT to technology-neutral auctioning of large-scale RE projects to ensure market competition and low RE prices - depending on, among others, grid connection of the plants, international standard PPA and an efficient bidding process.

➢ To ensure the extensive expansion of RE, especially PVs in the southern region, in a cost efficient way it is important to ensure involvement at provincial level.

➢ A framework for the development of offshore wind should be established as it requires an investment- and knowledge-intensive technology.

Renewable Energy

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Key findings

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 13

• How can Vietnam balance the future power system? What are the key solutions?

➢ Gradual shift in the balancing role from the current hydropower installations to battery storage technology in the long term.

Power System Balancing

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

GW

Curtailment

Import

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Other RE

Biomass

Dom. NG

Imp. coal

Dom. coal

Demand

Hourly dispatch in RE scenario (week 4)

2020 2030

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70Curtailment

Import 3rd

Battery

Solar

Wind offshore

Wind

Hydro

Other RE

Biomass

Imp. LNG

Dom. NG

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Key findings

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 14

• How can Vietnam balance the future power system? What are the key solutions?

➢ Even at high RE shares the system can be balanced: battery storage mainly in South region and 30-60 GW investment in interconnectors transmission capacity (2050).

Power System Balancing

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200Curtailment

Import

Battery

Solar

Wind offshore

Wind

Hydro

Other RE

Biomass

Imp. coal

Dom. coal

Demand0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

GW

Curtailment

Import

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Other RE

Biomass

Dom. NG

Imp. coal

Dom. coal

Demand

2020 2050

Hourly dispatch in RE scenario (week 4)

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Policy insights

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 15

The planning of the future power system in Vietnam should ensure that the required technology and market components are in place to secure a timely balancing of the system.

• In the mid to long term, the development of the transmission grid will be required to offer additional flexibility: allocation of the required financial resources both at national and regional level

• Battery storage represents a robust solution in the long-term: market barriers to its swift introduction should be investigated and addressed, thus laying out the favorable market conditions.

• Other measures:

• Market coupling with neighboring countries can bring multiple benefits, including improved competition, security of supply, sharing of reserves, reduced need for storage, improved balancing in relation to hydro (wet/dry years), wind and solar.

• Flexibility measures in thermal power plants, pumped hydro, demand responseand further development of forecasting systems.

Power System Balancing

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Key findings

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 16

• What is the impact of the future energy system on GHG emissions?

➢ GHG emissions increase at 9.7% p.a. in 2020-2030 and 3.6% p.a. in 2030-2040 (RE Target), while fulfilling the 25% NDC target (with EE measures).

➢ A combination of EE, RE and limitation on coal use can reduce these impacts, with more significance in the power sector and less effects in the demand sectors(industry).

Climate and Local pollution

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2020 2030 2040 2050

Bill

ion

USD

Mill

ion

to

n C

O2

RE Target RE Target+EE RE+EE+NoNewCoal

RE+NoNewCoal Unrestricted GDP

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Key findings

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 17

• What is the impact of the future energy system on air pollution?

➢ Significant impact on air pollution and people’s health from the power sector, if nomeasures are taken to control pollutants emissions, especially from coal-fired plants.

➢ RE support and limitations on new coal thermal plants will reduce these impacts.

Climate and Local pollution

05

101520253035404550

Un

rest

rict

ed

RE

Targ

et

RE+

No

New

Co

al

RE+

EE

RE+

EE+N

oN

ewC

oal

Un

rest

rict

ed

RE

Targ

et

RE+

No

New

Co

al

RE+

EE

RE+

EE+N

oN

ewC

oal

Un

rest

rict

ed

RE

Targ

et

RE+

No

New

Co

al

RE+

EE

RE+

EE+N

oN

ewC

oal

Un

rest

rict

ed

RE

Targ

et

RE+

No

New

Co

al

RE+

EE

RE+

EE+N

oN

ewC

oal

2020 2030 2040 2050

Bill

ion

USD

Cost of pollution (power sector)

SO2 NOx PM

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Policy insights

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 18

The impact of the energy system (supply, power and demand sectors) on climate and other externalities should be tackled by addressing reduction in GHG and otherpollutants. Measures to consider:

➢ Comparison and harmonization of RE targets and emission targets (e.g. NDC)

➢ Incentives to reduce CO2 emissions: CO2 taxes or CO2 caps combined withemission trading schemes and other market mechanisms.

➢ Tighten air pollution control measures in both central and decentral installations (power generation and industry).

Climate and Local pollution

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Conclusions

May 17, 2019Danish Energy Agency Page 19

Energy resources

RE expansion and EE measures can reduce energy imports.

Reversing coal increase trend willlower reliance on imported

resources, although at highersystem cost

Energy Efficiency

Energy savings bring cost savingsat system level

Prioritize process heat in industryand residential appliances

Renewable Energy

Investments in solar and windpower are cost-optimal for the

system

Introduction of technology-neutral auctions

Power System Balancing

The system can integrate high RE shares mainly through storagetechnologies (e.g. batteries)

Climate and Local Pollution

Combination of EE, RE and limitation on coal use will reduce

CO2 emissions by 40%

Health costs pollution from power plants need to be addressed

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Danish Energy Agency

Thank you

Danish Energy Agency

Giada Venturini,

Advisor

Mail: [email protected]

Global Cooperation

Danish Energy Agency

April 12, 2019Danish Energy Agency 20