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Sustainability MythsBy Richard Stratton
Setting the Scene
One Planet Company
We try to practice what we preach• World’s first consultancy to be formally endorsed as a One Planet Company by sustainability charity BioRegional
• Applied the 10 One Planet Principles to guide our commitment, actions and services
• Cundall Sustainability Roadmap available on www.cundall.com
Climate Changenot
Sustainability
What’s really warming the world
Skeptics of manmade climate change offer various natural causes to explain why the Earth has warmed 1.4 degC since 1880.
Can these account for the planet’s rising temperature?
Observed
KEYObserved
This line shows the measured, or “observed,” land-ocean temperature
Source File : Bloomberg Business
http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/based on findings from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Is it the Earth’s orbit?
Observed
Orbital Changes
KEYObserved Orbital Changes
The Earth wobbles on its axis, and its tilt orbit change over many thousands of years, pushing the climate into and out of ice ages.
Influence of orbital changes has been negligible
95% Confidence
Source File : Bloomberg Business
Is it the sun?
Observed
Solar
KEYObserved Solar 95% Confidence
The sun’s temperature varies over decades and centuries.
Sun’s change has had negligible effect.
Source File : Bloomberg Business
Is it volcanoes?
Human industry emits about 100 times more CO2 than volcanic activity, and eruptions release sulfate chemicals that can actually cool the atmosphere for a year or two.
Observed
Volcanic
KEYObserved Volcanic 95% Confidence
Source File : Bloomberg Business
Observed
Is it all three of these things combined?
Adding the natural factors together doesn’t add up.
Orbital Changes
Volcanic
Solar
KEYObserved Orbital Changes Solar Volcanic Natural Factors 95% Confidence
Natural Factors
Source File : Bloomberg Business
So if it’s not nature, is it deforestation?
KEYObserved Land Use . 95% Confidence
Observed
Land Use
Humans have cut, plowed, and paved more than half the Earth’s land surface.Dark forests are yielding to lighter patches, which reflect more sunlight - and have a slight cooling effect.
Source File : Bloomberg Business
Or ozone pollution?
Natural ozone blocks harmful sunlight and cools slightly.
Closer to Earth, pollution related ozone makes the climate a little hotter – but not much.
Observed
KEYObserved Ozone 95% Confidence
Ozone
Source File : Bloomberg Business
Or aerosol pollution?
Some pollutants cool the atmosphere, like sulfate aerosols from coal-burning.
Offsets some of the warming – but causes acid rain
KEYObserved Aerosols 95% Confidence
Aerosols
Observed
Source File : Bloomberg Business
No, it really is greenhouse gases
Observed
Atmospheric CO2 levels are 40% higher than they were in 1750.
KEYObserved Greenhouse Gases 95% Confidence
Greenhouse gases
Source File : Bloomberg Business
See for yourself
Together HUMAN FACTORS match the observed temperature change - particularly since 1950.
KEYObserved Land Use Ozone Aerosols Greenhouse Gases
95% Confidence
Human factors
Land Use
Ozone
Aerosols
Greenhouse gases
Observed
Human Factors
Source File : Bloomberg Business
Compare and contrast
Combining natural and human causes of climate change demonstrates the dominance of greenhouse gases
What are we going to do about it?
NATURAL FACTORS HUMAN FACTORSVolcanicSolarOrbital Changes Greenhouse gasesAerosolsOzoneLand Use
Observed
All Factors
95% Confidence
Source File : Bloomberg Business
• Everything is okay – doesn't look like it
– Plan A because there is no Plan B (M&S)
– ..cut CO2 by 20%, 30% etc… (of what???)
– 20% Renewable Energy (of what???)
• Is any of this enough – does anyone really know?
Industry perception
Myanmar July 2015
Energy = no. of people x expectationsconsumption efficiency
CO2 = energy x type of fuel
Energy & Carbon – buildings & globally
Sources: UN, The Economist
+33% against 2015
+53% against 2015
The News
The News
IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The IPCC is a scientific body under the auspices of the United Nations Currently 195 countries are members of the IPCC
http://www.ipcc.ch/
Rising Sea Levels
The rate at which the global oceans have risen in the past twodecades is more significant than previously recognised, say US-based scientist.
200mm rise
Hurricane Sandy
Increasing CO2 in the atmosphere
261 years 2100 Gt CO2 = average 8Gt per annum
Last 41 years 1100 Gt CO2 = average 27Gt per annum
Currently at 30 to 35 Gt per annum
Rate of Increase CO2 in the atmosphere
Total Carbon Budget in the atmosphere
New Budget Limit to avoid >2degC rise 820 Gt CO2
by 2011 already emitted 515Gt CO2
At current rates Budget Limit will be reached by 2021
Where we need to be
Where we are heading
Droughts & Floods
• Food shortages• Rising prices• Reducing income • Population dislocation
& migration• Competition for
resources
• Conflict
Dried up irrigation gully
Current flooding in Gaza
Meeting the rising energy demand
OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2011
Fossil Fuels81% in 200075% in 2030
Renewables13% in 200018% in 2030
17
12.6
34%
We are simply adding energy sources not displacing any
Oilvaluable natural resource
Preservation of reserves
provide economic sustainability for future
generations
Minimise local demand
through a combination of energy efficient
design and use of renewable energy strategies
Meeting the rising energy demand
ExampleA development of the scale of King Abdullah City
Considering 20% energy reduction and 10% renewable energy could save 34 million barrels of oil per year (0.8% of annual production)
Prolongation of oil reserves for future generations
Full market value available on preserved oil reserves.
Meeting the rising energy demand
What about the trees?
Realistically? …
A Maple in 25 yrs absorbs 1/3 of a tonne of CO2
(0.013 T/annum)
A Pine in 25 yrs absorbs 1.7 tonnes of CO2 (0.068 T/annum)
To offset current annual global CO2
emissions need 5,100,000,000,000
Pine Trees or 40,000,000 km2
(approx. 4 x China)
Will Renewables reverse this
Great, but can't be replicated and unpredictable
Graphene
• Photovoltaic Panels • Currently – 17% output• In the future?
• The problem is time
…the new wonder material? …Discovered in the University of Manchester
COP 21 - Dec 2015 Paris
December 2015, the world will gather in Paris to secure a legally binding, global climate change agreement with emission reduction commitments from all countries for the first time ever.
The fall in the price of oil removes one big incentive for the developed world to invest in renewables and greater energy efficiency.
Lima summit 2014
Tonnes per capita 2015
US 17
Aus 16.7
China 6.7
HK 5.7Singapore 4.3
Libya 6.4Qatar 43.9UAE 20.1
UK 8.3Spain 7.1
Poland 8.3Romania 3.9
Source – The World Bank
40 year Challenge
What can I do (at home)?
What can I do (at work)
What can we (Cundall) do?
The Challengehttp://calculator.bioregional.com/step01.php
Change behaviour…
Visualise the Alternative
Running cars on biofuels
Source: David MacKay, Without Hot Air
Running cars on biofuels
Source: David MacKay, Without Hot Air
Biofuel in buildings v vehicles
10 litres of recycled cooking oil
CHP Truck
23kgCO2eCO2e saving 27kgCO2e
45%Extra fuel cost 0%
LotsCapital cost Zero
Biofuel works better in transport
Why waste it in buildings?
CHP in building connected to grid electricity and natural gas
CHP efficiencyHeat to power output ratio = 1.5Efficiency = 75%No heat rejected
Emission factors (kgCO2e/kWh)Recycled oil = 0.06 Diesel = 0.32 Grid electricity = 0.6Natural gas = 0.2
Fuel CostsBiofuel & diesel = 70 p/litre(1 litre of fuel = 10 kWh)`Grid electricity = 10 p/kWhNat gas =3.5 p/kWh
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Natural gas
Diesel / petrol
Biofuel
Recycled cooking oil
kgCO2e / kWh
Not all biofuels are low carbon
Source: “Carbon and Sustainability Reporting Within the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation: Technical Guidance Part Two - Carbon Reporting – Default Values and Fuel Chains” version 2.1 published in July 2010 by UK Renewable Fuel Agency.
67%9%
24%
Breakdown by category
Operating
Embodied
Transport
Operating: 150kgCO2e/m2/year
Embodied (initial): 700kgCO2e/m2
Embodied (in-use): 550kgCO2e/m2
Commuting: 800kgCO2e/person/year
60 year periodNo energy supply
decarbonisation included
Typical London air con office
Source: What Colour Is Your Building, David Clark, RIBA Publishing 2013
14%
15%
71%
Breakdown by category
Operating
Embodied
Transport
Operating: 20kgCO2e/m2/year
Embodied (initial): 700kgCO2e/m2
Embodied (in-use): 550kgCO2e/m2
Commuting: 1500kgCO2e/person/year
60 year periodNo energy supply
decarbonisation included
Nearly zero energy office – UK rural
Source: What Colour Is Your Building, David Clark, RIBA Publishing 201300
14%
15%
71%
Breakdown by category
Operating
Embodied
Transport
Operating: 185kgCO2e/m2/year
Embodied (initial): 950kgCO2e/m2
Embodied (in-use): 675kgCO2e/m2
Commuting: 1,875kgCO2e/person/year
60 year periodNo energy supply
decarbonisation included
Typical UAE air con office
Embodied (initial): Embodied (in
54%
8%
38%
Operating
Embodied
Transport
Water
Do we use too much?
Do we have too little?
Do we know how much we use?
1 2 3
How much?
• 200 years ago a bath a year
• 30 years ago a bath a week
• 2015 – 3 showers per day
• What is the correct level of cleanliness – too much washing = eczema
Consumption is cheap
5 minute shower 50l < AED 1.0
Bath 180l = AED 2.0
Washing Teeth = 15 Fils
Washing Machine < AED 2.0
But – desalination has a carbon penalty
• New technology – 1.5 – 3 kg CO2 per m3
• Old technology – 1.5 – 3 kg CO2 per m3
Consumption costs in Dubai almost the same as the UK
Water scarcity in 2025
“There are only 2 to 5 days emergency water reserves for domestic use in the UAE and regions”Gulfnews 21 September 2007 – study by Dr Mohammad Dawoud Manager, Water Resources Department Abu Dhabi Environment Agency
Water sources
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Litr
es
pe
r p
ers
on
pe
r d
ay l/
c/d
International Water Consumption 2007
Water use per capita
Future Benchmark??
65
% R
ed
uctio
n
Water use by sector – UAE
Residential59%
Government11%
Commercial25%
Industrial5%
Dubai Water Consumption 2006Total=64,926 MIG
Where is water used - commercial
Source: Water Efficiency in Offices, Australian Government
Where is water used - residential
40% to 50% could be low grade non-potable
20% to 40% could be high grade non-potable
• Project water cycle analysis required. The system must be balanced. Set design rules
Avoiding use of water (water demand)
Pota
ble
Wat
er
Clea
ning
/Mai
nten
ance
AC C
oolin
g
Wat
er F
eatu
re M
akeu
p
Swim
min
g Po
ol E
vap/
Mak
eup
Swim
min
g Po
ol B
ackw
ash
Irrig
atio
n
-200000
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
Litre
s/Da
y
Potable Water Cleaning/Maintenanc e AC Cooling Water Feature Mak eup Swimming Pool Ev ap/Mak eup Swimming Pool Bac k wash Irrigation
Base Daily Water Demand
Waste
Foul
Water Use
Pota
ble
Wat
er
Clea
ning
/Mai
nten
ance
AC C
oolin
g
Wat
er F
eatu
re M
akeu
p
Swim
min
g Po
ol E
vap/
Mak
eup
Swim
min
g Po
ol B
ackw
ash
Irrig
atio
n
-50000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
m3/
Year
Potable Water Cleaning/Maintenanc e AC Cooling Water Feature Mak eup Swimming Pool Ev ap/Mak eup Swimming Pool Bac k wash Irrigation
Base Annual Water Demand
Waste
Foul
Water Use
Avoiding use of water (water demand)
• Why??
Water Balance – Base DemandLuxury Residential with Lush Landscaping
Available waste water equates to only 12% of
demand
Available waste water equates to only 17% of
demand
Pota
ble
Wat
er
Clea
ning
/Mai
nten
ance
AC C
oolin
g
Wat
er F
eatu
re M
akeu
p
Swim
min
g Po
ol E
vap/
Mak
eup
Swim
min
g Po
ol B
ackw
ash
Irrig
atio
n
-200000
-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
Litre
s/Da
y
Potable Water Cleaning/Maintenanc e AC Cooling Water Feature Mak eup Swimming Pool Ev ap/Mak eup Swimming Pool Bac k wash Irrigation
Enhanced Daily Water Demand
Waste
Foul
Water Use
Pota
ble
Wat
er
Clea
ning
/Mai
nten
ance
AC C
oolin
g
Wat
er F
eatu
re M
akeu
p
Swim
min
g Po
ol E
vap/
Mak
eup
Swim
min
g Po
ol B
ackw
ash
Irrig
atio
n
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
m3/
Year
Potable Water Cleaning/Maintenanc e AC Cooling Water Feature Mak eup Swimming Pool Ev ap/Mak eup Swimming Pool Bac k wash Irrigation
Enhanced Annual Water Demand
Waste
Foul
Water Use
Avoiding use of water (water demand)
• Why??
Available waste water equates to only 21% of
demand
Available waste water equates to only 28% of
demand
Water Balance – Enhanced EfficiencyResidential with Lush Landscaping
Better U-Values?
Carbon Content of an email
Best Orientation?
330° 000/000/012/001/007
Incident wind velocity [m/s]
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
<10.0
000/000/023/001/007
000/000/021/001/007
000/000/022/001/007
000/000/020/001/007
000/000/015/001/007
000/000/014/001/007
000/000/016/001/007
000/000/013/001/007
000/000/019/001/007 000/000/018/001/007 000/000/017/001/007
000°
030°
090°
060°
300°
120° 180° 150°
210°
270°
240°
N
External Shading- Horizontal or Vertical
OrientationExternal Shading- Horizontal or Vertical
Plants not Plant
Photosynthesis
Known symbiotic relationship
VOC removal
Break down VOC into CO2 and H2O
Microbes in soil
Innovation- Plants and Air Quality
The Experiment
David Brownstein
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
Typical Office Living Wall
kgC
O2/
m2
Annual CO2 Emission Rates
Internal Lighting
Fans
Pumps
Heat rejection fans
Condenser pumps
Cooling - Air
Cooling - Space
Heating
DHW
Implication of Living Wall
7.3% reduction in CO2
• 10% less ventilation air / less cooling
• 30% reduction in fan energy
Conclusion- VOC
• Removal is by microbes in the roots
• Potted plants have poor exposure of the soil.
Living Wall Biofilter
How do they perform?
The biowall can supply 100l/m2/sec?
Equates to air for 10 people
Application- Winter Garden = Plant Room
External Air PM10 PM 2.5
VOC & CO2
180m2 of Living Wall for South Building
Hydroponic Wall
• Improved Air Quality
• Added Biodiversity
• Passive Free Cooling
Living Wall
Daylight Factors
Fixed overcast sky i.e. ignores the sun
2% minimum daylight factor
Daylighting
Climate Based Daylight Modelling (CBDM)
An hourly calculation considering the sun and cloudSet minimum and maximum
Daylighting
Climate Based Daylight Modelling
Two new metrics:
1. Useful Daylight Index (UDI) - 80% of the occupied hours, between 100-3000 lux.
2. Daylight Autonomy (DA) –typically 150 Lux for 50% of the space for the occupied hours.
Daylighting
Key Features
Light redirection
Daylighting
Key Features
Higher CeilingsWindows up to soffit
Daylighting
Is energy too cheap to drive change?
Is energy too cheap to drive change?
60%
64%
13%
19%
15%
10%
10%
6%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
UK
LondonRent
Rates
Service Charge
Energy Consumption
Utilities / Standing Charges
Source: What Colour Is Your Building, David Clark, RIBA Publishing 2013
Energy costs 5 to 10% of office occupancy cost
Tenants just aren’t interested in energy
“Between 2001 and 2011 not one prospective tenant enquired about the
energy performance of a building before signing a lease, and only a handful asked about energy after the lease was signed.”
Head of lettings, de-brief pending his retirement from amajor quoted property company (>1 million m2)
Biggest cost is people
Source: What Colour Is Your Building, David Clark, RIBA Publishing 2013
£0
£1,000
£2,000
£3,000
£4,000
£5,000
£6,000
EmployeeCosts
Rent Rates ServiceCharge
EnergyConsumption
Utilities /StandingCharges
An
nu
al c
ost
pe
r m
2o
f N
LA
AssumptionsAverage salary = £43,000Employment cost (training, etc) = 30%Occupancy Density = 1 per 10m2 of NLA
7% 0.6%2% 1%
89%
< 0.5%
CUNDALL Dubai – Energy 0.53%CUNDALL Doha – Energy 0.58%
Based on A/C only – no mixed mode (C rating with)
H 176-200
I 201-225
J 226-250
K 251-275 269
Computer Model
C/D
Actual Energy
G ++
Considering Real Energy Consumption
EPC v actual consumption
EPC Ratings
Actual energy consumption
No correlation between EPC (design) and
measured energy consumption
(reality)
Source: A Tale of Two Buildings, JLL / BBP, 2012
19.8%
17%
4.2%
10.6%
0
5
10
15
20
25
TAS IES IES SBEM ISBEM
TAS
IES
IES SBEM
ISBEM
Energy Modelling
Approved Software comparison
Energy Modelling
81%
Refurb / Cat A fitoutevery 15 years, excludes
Cat B fitout
77%
Need to consider Actual energy not modelled energy – i.e. LEED could be
50% lower
5,515m2 Campus Service Centre
Constructed for <AED 4,000/m2
Solar Hot Water Heating - 5 Years payback
Mini District Cooling System - 6 Years payback
Sun Pipes - 10 Years payback
Building Energy Performance ≈190kWh/m2/annum UK ECON 19 347 kWh/m2/annum 195kWh/m2/annum
EGBC Green Building of Year 2015
30
% S
avin
gs3
0%
Sav
ings
5,515m2 Campus Service Centre
Constructed
Solar Hot Water Heating payback
American University of Sharjah
Can I harness the power of my dancing?
Dancing energy
Don’t get distracted by gimmicks
London Olympic games trialone million people
generated“72 million joules of energy”
This equates to 20 kWhsaving £2 in electricity
8.5 Ws per footfall
Example1,000 people x 260 days
= 0.61 kWh per year.
6p per year cost savingOne 50W halogen lamp
for 12 hours / yearDo the maths!
Local and Sustainable Food
Food Supplies
• Over 7 billion people
• 200 thousand born every day
• Millions starve vs increasing obesity & diabetes.
Local and Sustainable Food
27% attributed to food
Carbon Footprint
Cheese v Chicken?
Food Carbon Footprint Comparison
Myth
Fact
Low carbon Hoofprint
Innovation required
30% reduction in carbon emission as a result of modified feed.
Food seasonality and low carbon diet thoughts
SEASON OF FRUIT AND VEGETABLES
F
R
U
I
T
WINTER SPRING SUMMER AUTUMN
Dec. Jan. Feb. March Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.
Apples
Apples (Bramley)
Apples (cox)
Rhubarb
Blackcurrants
Cherries
Damson
Pears
Plums
Quince
Strawberries
Raspberries
Blackberries
Food seasonality and low carbon diet thoughts
SEASON OF FRUIT AND VEGETABLES
V
E
G
E
T
A
B
L
E
S
WINTER SPRING SUMMER AUTUMN
Dec. Jan. Feb. March Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.
Cabbage
Asparagus
Beetroot
Brussels Sprouts
Broccoli
Carrots
Cauliflower
Celery
Celeriac
Leeks
Marrow
Potatoes (Maincrop)
Lettuce
Parsnip
Peas
Runner Beans
Swede
Sweetcorn
To Bee or not to bee
To Bee or not to bee
Honey EaterHoverfly
Ant
Butterflies Moths Beetles
Effective Land Use
Effective Land Use
Organic farming uses 20-25% more land for the same output as Conventional methods with no proven health benefits. Could that land be better used?
Effective Land Use
Summary
How many planets are you?
I am 3.6 PlanetsRichard Stratton
One Planet Living
What can I do?What can we do?We need a sense of urgency
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