Sustainability Myths - Cundall · Solar KEY Observed Solar 95% Confidence ... Heat to power output ratio = 1.5 Efficiency = 75% No heat rejected Emission factors (kgCO 2e/kWh) Recycled

Sustainability MythsBy Richard Stratton

Setting the Scene

One Planet Company

We try to practice what we preach• World’s first consultancy to be formally endorsed as a One Planet Company by sustainability charity BioRegional

• Applied the 10 One Planet Principles to guide our commitment, actions and services

• Cundall Sustainability Roadmap available on www.cundall.com

Climate Changenot

Sustainability

What’s really warming the world

Skeptics of manmade climate change offer various natural causes to explain why the Earth has warmed 1.4 degC since 1880.

Can these account for the planet’s rising temperature?

Observed

KEYObserved

This line shows the measured, or “observed,” land-ocean temperature

Source File : Bloomberg Business

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/based on findings from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/

Is it the Earth’s orbit?

Observed

Orbital Changes

KEYObserved Orbital Changes

The Earth wobbles on its axis, and its tilt orbit change over many thousands of years, pushing the climate into and out of ice ages.

Influence of orbital changes has been negligible

95% Confidence


Is it the sun?

Observed

Solar

KEYObserved Solar 95% Confidence

The sun’s temperature varies over decades and centuries.

Sun’s change has had negligible effect.


Is it volcanoes?

Human industry emits about 100 times more CO2 than volcanic activity, and eruptions release sulfate chemicals that can actually cool the atmosphere for a year or two.

Observed

Volcanic

KEYObserved Volcanic 95% Confidence


Observed

Is it all three of these things combined?

Adding the natural factors together doesn’t add up.

Orbital Changes

Volcanic

Solar

KEYObserved Orbital Changes Solar Volcanic Natural Factors 95% Confidence

Natural Factors


So if it’s not nature, is it deforestation?

KEYObserved Land Use . 95% Confidence

Observed

Land Use

Humans have cut, plowed, and paved more than half the Earth’s land surface.Dark forests are yielding to lighter patches, which reflect more sunlight - and have a slight cooling effect.


Or ozone pollution?

Natural ozone blocks harmful sunlight and cools slightly.

Closer to Earth, pollution related ozone makes the climate a little hotter – but not much.

Observed

KEYObserved Ozone 95% Confidence

Ozone


Or aerosol pollution?

Some pollutants cool the atmosphere, like sulfate aerosols from coal-burning.

Offsets some of the warming – but causes acid rain

KEYObserved Aerosols 95% Confidence

Aerosols

Observed


No, it really is greenhouse gases

Observed

Atmospheric CO2 levels are 40% higher than they were in 1750.

KEYObserved Greenhouse Gases 95% Confidence

Greenhouse gases


See for yourself

Together HUMAN FACTORS match the observed temperature change - particularly since 1950.

KEYObserved Land Use Ozone Aerosols Greenhouse Gases

95% Confidence

Human factors

Land Use

Ozone

Aerosols

Greenhouse gases

Observed

Human Factors


Compare and contrast

Combining natural and human causes of climate change demonstrates the dominance of greenhouse gases

What are we going to do about it?

NATURAL FACTORS HUMAN FACTORSVolcanicSolarOrbital Changes Greenhouse gasesAerosolsOzoneLand Use

Observed

All Factors

95% Confidence


• Everything is okay – doesn't look like it

– Plan A because there is no Plan B (M&S)

– ..cut CO2 by 20%, 30% etc… (of what???)

– 20% Renewable Energy (of what???)

• Is any of this enough – does anyone really know?

Industry perception

Myanmar July 2015

Energy = no. of people x expectationsconsumption efficiency

CO2 = energy x type of fuel

Energy & Carbon – buildings & globally

Sources: UN, The Economist

+33% against 2015

+53% against 2015

The News

The News

IPCC

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The IPCC is a scientific body under the auspices of the United Nations Currently 195 countries are members of the IPCC

http://www.ipcc.ch/

Rising Sea Levels

The rate at which the global oceans have risen in the past twodecades is more significant than previously recognised, say US-based scientist.

200mm rise

Hurricane Sandy

Increasing CO2 in the atmosphere

261 years 2100 Gt CO2 = average 8Gt per annum

Last 41 years 1100 Gt CO2 = average 27Gt per annum

Currently at 30 to 35 Gt per annum

Rate of Increase CO2 in the atmosphere

Total Carbon Budget in the atmosphere

New Budget Limit to avoid >2degC rise 820 Gt CO2

by 2011 already emitted 515Gt CO2

At current rates Budget Limit will be reached by 2021

Where we need to be

Where we are heading

Droughts & Floods

• Food shortages• Rising prices• Reducing income • Population dislocation

& migration• Competition for

resources

• Conflict

Dried up irrigation gully

Current flooding in Gaza

Meeting the rising energy demand

OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2011

Fossil Fuels81% in 200075% in 2030

Renewables13% in 200018% in 2030

17

12.6

34%

We are simply adding energy sources not displacing any

Oilvaluable natural resource

Preservation of reserves

provide economic sustainability for future

generations

Minimise local demand

through a combination of energy efficient

design and use of renewable energy strategies


ExampleA development of the scale of King Abdullah City

Considering 20% energy reduction and 10% renewable energy could save 34 million barrels of oil per year (0.8% of annual production)

Prolongation of oil reserves for future generations

Full market value available on preserved oil reserves.


What about the trees?

Realistically? …

A Maple in 25 yrs absorbs 1/3 of a tonne of CO2

(0.013 T/annum)

A Pine in 25 yrs absorbs 1.7 tonnes of CO2 (0.068 T/annum)

To offset current annual global CO2

emissions need 5,100,000,000,000

Pine Trees or 40,000,000 km2

(approx. 4 x China)

Will Renewables reverse this

Great, but can't be replicated and unpredictable

Graphene

• Photovoltaic Panels • Currently – 17% output• In the future?

• The problem is time

…the new wonder material? …Discovered in the University of Manchester

COP 21 - Dec 2015 Paris

December 2015, the world will gather in Paris to secure a legally binding, global climate change agreement with emission reduction commitments from all countries for the first time ever.

The fall in the price of oil removes one big incentive for the developed world to invest in renewables and greater energy efficiency.

Lima summit 2014

Tonnes per capita 2015

US 17

Aus 16.7

China 6.7

HK 5.7Singapore 4.3

Libya 6.4Qatar 43.9UAE 20.1

UK 8.3Spain 7.1

Poland 8.3Romania 3.9

Source – The World Bank

40 year Challenge

What can I do (at home)?

What can I do (at work)

What can we (Cundall) do?

The Challengehttp://calculator.bioregional.com/step01.php

Change behaviour…

Visualise the Alternative

Running cars on biofuels

Source: David MacKay, Without Hot Air

Running cars on biofuels

Source: David MacKay, Without Hot Air

Biofuel in buildings v vehicles

10 litres of recycled cooking oil

CHP Truck

23kgCO2eCO2e saving 27kgCO2e

45%Extra fuel cost 0%

LotsCapital cost Zero

Biofuel works better in transport

Why waste it in buildings?

CHP in building connected to grid electricity and natural gas

CHP efficiencyHeat to power output ratio = 1.5Efficiency = 75%No heat rejected

Emission factors (kgCO2e/kWh)Recycled oil = 0.06 Diesel = 0.32 Grid electricity = 0.6Natural gas = 0.2

Fuel CostsBiofuel & diesel = 70 p/litre(1 litre of fuel = 10 kWh)`Grid electricity = 10 p/kWhNat gas =3.5 p/kWh

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Natural gas

Diesel / petrol

Biofuel

Recycled cooking oil

kgCO2e / kWh

Not all biofuels are low carbon

Source: “Carbon and Sustainability Reporting Within the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation: Technical Guidance Part Two - Carbon Reporting – Default Values and Fuel Chains” version 2.1 published in July 2010 by UK Renewable Fuel Agency.

67%9%

24%

Breakdown by category

Operating

Embodied

Transport

Operating: 150kgCO2e/m2/year

Embodied (initial): 700kgCO2e/m2

Embodied (in-use): 550kgCO2e/m2

Commuting: 800kgCO2e/person/year

60 year periodNo energy supply

decarbonisation included

Typical London air con office

Source: What Colour Is Your Building, David Clark, RIBA Publishing 2013

14%

15%

71%


Operating

Embodied

Transport




Commuting: 1500kgCO2e/person/year



Nearly zero energy office – UK rural


14%

15%

71%


Operating

Embodied

Transport




Commuting: 1,875kgCO2e/person/year



Typical UAE air con office

Embodied (initial): Embodied (in

54%

8%

38%

Operating

Embodied

Transport

Water

Do we use too much?

Do we have too little?

Do we know how much we use?

1 2 3

How much?

• 200 years ago a bath a year

• 30 years ago a bath a week

• 2015 – 3 showers per day

• What is the correct level of cleanliness – too much washing = eczema

Consumption is cheap

5 minute shower 50l < AED 1.0

Bath 180l = AED 2.0

Washing Teeth = 15 Fils

Washing Machine < AED 2.0

But – desalination has a carbon penalty

• New technology – 1.5 – 3 kg CO2 per m3

• Old technology – 1.5 – 3 kg CO2 per m3

Consumption costs in Dubai almost the same as the UK

Water scarcity in 2025

“There are only 2 to 5 days emergency water reserves for domestic use in the UAE and regions”Gulfnews 21 September 2007 – study by Dr Mohammad Dawoud Manager, Water Resources Department Abu Dhabi Environment Agency

Water sources

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Litr

es

pe

r p

ers

on

pe

r d

ay l/

c/d

International Water Consumption 2007

Water use per capita

Future Benchmark??

65

% R

ed

uctio

n

Water use by sector – UAE

Residential59%

Government11%

Commercial25%

Industrial5%

Dubai Water Consumption 2006Total=64,926 MIG

Where is water used - commercial

Source: Water Efficiency in Offices, Australian Government

Where is water used - residential

40% to 50% could be low grade non-potable

20% to 40% could be high grade non-potable

• Project water cycle analysis required. The system must be balanced. Set design rules

Avoiding use of water (water demand)

Pota

ble

Wat

er

Clea

ning

/Mai

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ance

AC C

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Wat

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Swim

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ash

Irrig

atio

n

-200000

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

Litre

s/Da

y

Potable Water Cleaning/Maintenanc e AC Cooling Water Feature Mak eup Swimming Pool Ev ap/Mak eup Swimming Pool Bac k wash Irrigation

Base Daily Water Demand

Waste

Foul

Water Use

Pota

ble

Wat

er

Clea

ning

/Mai

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ance

AC C

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Wat

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Irrig

atio

n

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

m3/

Year


Base Annual Water Demand

Waste

Foul

Water Use


• Why??

Water Balance – Base DemandLuxury Residential with Lush Landscaping

Available waste water equates to only 12% of

demand


demand

Pota

ble

Wat

er

Clea

ning

/Mai

nten

ance

AC C

oolin

g

Wat

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p

Swim

min

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Mak

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Swim

min

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ash

Irrig

atio

n

-200000

-100000

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

Litre

s/Da

y


Enhanced Daily Water Demand

Waste

Foul

Water Use

Pota

ble

Wat

er

Clea

ning

/Mai

nten

ance

AC C

oolin

g

Wat

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p

Swim

min

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Irrig

atio

n

-60000

-40000

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

m3/

Year


Enhanced Annual Water Demand

Waste

Foul

Water Use


• Why??


demand


demand

Water Balance – Enhanced EfficiencyResidential with Lush Landscaping

Better U-Values?

Carbon Content of an email

Best Orientation?

330° 000/000/012/001/007

Incident wind velocity [m/s]

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

<10.0

000/000/023/001/007

000/000/021/001/007

000/000/022/001/007

000/000/020/001/007

000/000/015/001/007

000/000/014/001/007

000/000/016/001/007

000/000/013/001/007

000/000/019/001/007 000/000/018/001/007 000/000/017/001/007

000°

030°

090°

060°

300°

120° 180° 150°

210°

270°

240°

N

grande_revised_a.eco

grande_revised_a.eco

External Shading- Horizontal or Vertical

OrientationExternal Shading- Horizontal or Vertical

Plants not Plant

Photosynthesis

Known symbiotic relationship

VOC removal

Break down VOC into CO2 and H2O

Microbes in soil

Innovation- Plants and Air Quality

The Experiment

David Brownstein

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

Typical Office Living Wall

kgC

O2/

m2

Annual CO2 Emission Rates

Internal Lighting

Fans

Pumps

Heat rejection fans

Condenser pumps

Cooling - Air

Cooling - Space

Heating

DHW

Implication of Living Wall

7.3% reduction in CO2

• 10% less ventilation air / less cooling

• 30% reduction in fan energy

Conclusion- VOC

• Removal is by microbes in the roots

• Potted plants have poor exposure of the soil.

http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YJOB8g_ryE0/T7o2No1WutI/AAAAAAAALys/d0hExDQvSkE/s640/Pictures39.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.junk-culture.com/2012_05_01_archive.html&h=457&w=640&tbnid=u5nKPd4cMtCcaM:&zoom=1&docid=BuzGVMKfRTRGEM&ei=nBghVK3jNY-jyAS68YEw&tbm=isch&ved=0CIEBEDMoVjBW&iact=rc&uact=3&dur=1374&page=6&start=85&ndsp=20

http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YJOB8g_ryE0/T7o2No1WutI/AAAAAAAALys/d0hExDQvSkE/s640/Pictures39.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.junk-culture.com/2012_05_01_archive.html&h=457&w=640&tbnid=u5nKPd4cMtCcaM:&zoom=1&docid=BuzGVMKfRTRGEM&ei=nBghVK3jNY-jyAS68YEw&tbm=isch&ved=0CIEBEDMoVjBW&iact=rc&uact=3&dur=1374&page=6&start=85&ndsp=20

Living Wall Biofilter

How do they perform?

The biowall can supply 100l/m2/sec?

Equates to air for 10 people

Application- Winter Garden = Plant Room

External Air PM10 PM 2.5

VOC & CO2

180m2 of Living Wall for South Building

Hydroponic Wall

• Improved Air Quality

• Added Biodiversity

• Passive Free Cooling

Living Wall

Daylight Factors

Fixed overcast sky i.e. ignores the sun

2% minimum daylight factor

Daylighting

Climate Based Daylight Modelling (CBDM)

An hourly calculation considering the sun and cloudSet minimum and maximum

Daylighting

Climate Based Daylight Modelling

Two new metrics:

1. Useful Daylight Index (UDI) - 80% of the occupied hours, between 100-3000 lux.

2. Daylight Autonomy (DA) –typically 150 Lux for 50% of the space for the occupied hours.

Daylighting

Key Features

Light redirection

Daylighting

Key Features

Higher CeilingsWindows up to soffit

Daylighting

Is energy too cheap to drive change?

Is energy too cheap to drive change?

60%

64%

13%

19%

15%

10%

10%

6%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

UK

LondonRent

Rates

Service Charge

Energy Consumption

Utilities / Standing Charges


Energy costs 5 to 10% of office occupancy cost

Tenants just aren’t interested in energy

“Between 2001 and 2011 not one prospective tenant enquired about the

energy performance of a building before signing a lease, and only a handful asked about energy after the lease was signed.”

Head of lettings, de-brief pending his retirement from amajor quoted property company (>1 million m2)

Biggest cost is people


£0

£1,000

£2,000

£3,000

£4,000

£5,000

£6,000

EmployeeCosts

Rent Rates ServiceCharge

EnergyConsumption

Utilities /StandingCharges

An

nu

al c

ost

pe

r m

2o

f N

LA

AssumptionsAverage salary = £43,000Employment cost (training, etc) = 30%Occupancy Density = 1 per 10m2 of NLA

7% 0.6%2% 1%

89%

< 0.5%

CUNDALL Dubai – Energy 0.53%CUNDALL Doha – Energy 0.58%

Based on A/C only – no mixed mode (C rating with)

H 176-200

I 201-225

J 226-250

K 251-275 269

Computer Model

C/D

Actual Energy

G ++

Considering Real Energy Consumption

EPC v actual consumption

EPC Ratings

Actual energy consumption

No correlation between EPC (design) and

measured energy consumption

(reality)

Source: A Tale of Two Buildings, JLL / BBP, 2012

19.8%

17%

4.2%

10.6%

0

5

10

15

20

25

TAS IES IES SBEM ISBEM

TAS

IES

IES SBEM

ISBEM

Energy Modelling

Approved Software comparison

Energy Modelling

81%

Refurb / Cat A fitoutevery 15 years, excludes

Cat B fitout

77%

Need to consider Actual energy not modelled energy – i.e. LEED could be

50% lower

5,515m2 Campus Service Centre

Constructed for <AED 4,000/m2

Solar Hot Water Heating - 5 Years payback

Mini District Cooling System - 6 Years payback

Sun Pipes - 10 Years payback

Building Energy Performance ≈190kWh/m2/annum UK ECON 19 347 kWh/m2/annum 195kWh/m2/annum

EGBC Green Building of Year 2015

30

% S

avin

gs3

0%

Sav

ings

5,515m2 Campus Service Centre

Constructed

Solar Hot Water Heating payback

American University of Sharjah

Can I harness the power of my dancing?

Dancing energy

Don’t get distracted by gimmicks

London Olympic games trialone million people

generated“72 million joules of energy”

This equates to 20 kWhsaving £2 in electricity

8.5 Ws per footfall

Example1,000 people x 260 days

= 0.61 kWh per year.

6p per year cost savingOne 50W halogen lamp

for 12 hours / yearDo the maths!

Local and Sustainable Food

Food Supplies

• Over 7 billion people

• 200 thousand born every day

• Millions starve vs increasing obesity & diabetes.

Local and Sustainable Food

27% attributed to food

Carbon Footprint

Cheese v Chicken?

Food Carbon Footprint Comparison

Myth

Fact

Low carbon Hoofprint

Innovation required

30% reduction in carbon emission as a result of modified feed.

Food seasonality and low carbon diet thoughts

SEASON OF FRUIT AND VEGETABLES

F

R

U

I

T

WINTER SPRING SUMMER AUTUMN

Dec. Jan. Feb. March Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.

Apples

Apples (Bramley)

Apples (cox)

Rhubarb

Blackcurrants

Cherries

Damson

Pears

Plums

Quince

Strawberries

Raspberries

Blackberries

Food seasonality and low carbon diet thoughts

SEASON OF FRUIT AND VEGETABLES

V

E

G

E

T

A

B

L

E

S

WINTER SPRING SUMMER AUTUMN

Dec. Jan. Feb. March Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.

Cabbage

Asparagus

Beetroot

Brussels Sprouts

Broccoli

Carrots

Cauliflower

Celery

Celeriac

Leeks

Marrow

Potatoes (Maincrop)

Lettuce

Parsnip

Peas

Runner Beans

Swede

Sweetcorn

To Bee or not to bee

To Bee or not to bee

Honey EaterHoverfly

Ant

Butterflies Moths Beetles

Effective Land Use

Effective Land Use

Organic farming uses 20-25% more land for the same output as Conventional methods with no proven health benefits. Could that land be better used?

Effective Land Use

Summary

How many planets are you?

I am 3.6 PlanetsRichard Stratton

One Planet Living

What can I do?What can we do?We need a sense of urgency

Documents

Sustainability Myths - Cundall · Solar KEY Observed Solar 95% Confidence ... Heat to power output ratio = 1.5 Efficiency = 75% No heat rejected Emission factors (kgCO 2e/kWh) Recycled