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Solving the Global EconomicPolitics of Peak Oil with Renewables
Presented by
Stephen L. Rush
CEO of For Fuel Freedom (3F Inc.),
Contrary Economist & Business Strategist
World Green Energy Symposium
October 22, 2010
Copyright 2010 © Wise Landfill Recycling & Mining, Inc.
TM TM
OverviewPolitical-economics of future Oil Supply
Resulting Economics of Peak OilDecision Time for Governments
Fossil Fuel Transition PlanImplementing Transition to RenewablesHow we arrived here
Economic ChoicesTechnology Choices AvailableSolving the Bio-fuel Supply Equation
10-10-10 Copyright 2010 © Wise Landfill Recycling & Mining, Inc. Page 1
The Politics of PetroleumPeak Oil
Requires more Money and Energy to extract Kuwaiti Economists
Global Oil Will Peak: Tetonic 20142014Hubbert Model (abiotic)
Oil is Already Becoming ScarceUnnecessary & unstable Deep Ocean Drilling
Oil Scarcity Can Be Prevented By TransitionTo Renewables
Panic can lead to War Renewables can lead to Trade &
Peace 10-10-10
2010 © Wise Landfill Recycling & Mining, Inc. Page 2
Peak Oil Predictions
10-10-10 Copyright 2010 © Wise Landfill Recycling & Mining, Inc. Page 3
Economics of Scarcity
10-10-10 Copyright 2010 © Wise Landfill Recycling & Mining, Inc. Page 4
The Time Is NowTo avert a Crisis
This is the Last Chance to Transition from OilTo determine Economic Options
Plan to implement Best Technologies within 3 months
Act Now to Avoid Economic DisparityDevelop a Fossil-fuel Transition Plan
A Well thought-out Plan will Stabilize MarketsKing Abdullah of Saudi Arabia said,
“All of us must get used to a different lifestyle.” Copyright 2010 © Wise Landfill Recycling & Mining, Inc. Page 5
Fossil Fuel Transition PlanDetermine your Level of Market
ParticipationExpect Oil Shortfall to be 7.3%
Estimated Production Loss is 3.4%3.9% is Compounded Economics(How scarcity affects the breakdown of oil supply)
Evaluate Fuel and Energy Supply Select Economically Sustainable Technology
Assess Local Renewable ResourcesCompare resources to your Energy Needs3 months from now is latest to Start Development
10-10-10 Copyright 2010 © Wise Landfill Recycling & Mining, Inc. Page 6
Lessons of the Xinho Indians of So. America
Food on the table vs. Survival
Scarcity vs. Abundance
10-10-10 Copyright 2010 © Wise Landfill Recycling & Mining, Inc. Page 7
Sources of Energy Making Smart Energy Choices
Unsustainable Energy Sources Sources:
Oil Dams Geo-thermalCoal, Nat’l GasNuclear Petrol-chemical Wireless
Grid
Lethal Drawbacks:Desertification Seismic Disturbance Poor HealthOcean Acidificaton Famine Conditions Disease
Sustainable Options can prevent calamityRenewables are here to save the day 10-10-10
Copyright 2010 © Wise Landfill Recycling & Mining, Inc. Page 9
Energy Demand Comparison
10-10-10 Copyright 2010 © Wise Landfill Recycling & Mining, Inc. Page 10
Economic ConsiderationsTransitional Energy Solutions
Power Plant Oxy-fuel Process CO2 Capture For Algae Bio-products
Coal Power Plant Toxins Filter for Eco-productsSuch as Vehicle Battery lead, mercury for Cool Light
OtherDC Current EfficienciesHarnessing the TideGreen Buidling System
Renewable Energy SolutionsBio-compost Bio-gas Bldg-integrated Energy Non-fossil fuel Wind Solar Cellulosic Fuels
10-10-10 Copyright 2010 © Wise Landfill Recycling & Mining, Inc. Page 11
Renewable Fuel DirectionsSustainable Bio-fuels Options
Bio-fuels and By-products from AlgaeBiodiesel Jet Grade Bio-fuel Bio-plasticsBio-oil Food Suppliments Bio-pharma
Bio-fuels and By-products from WastesEthanol Bio-gas Bio-Fertilizer Glass AggregateHydrogen Bio-fuel Water Fuel Pellets
Solving Bio-fuel Supplies Economic EquationMarket for Renewable Products
Consumer Convenience and Ethanol 10-10-10
Copyright 2010 © Wise Landfill Recycling & Mining, Inc. Page 12
A Brief History of EthanolDevelopment of Ethanol
Roots in Persia, Appalacian Mtns, BrazilLiked for its Resemblence to Gasoline
Easy Vehicle Maintenance and Use
Persian Discoveries & Future EconomiesProven tech thru the ages updated for today’s usageDistilled Alcohol -> EthanolOptics and Electricity -> SolarWind Inventions -> Non-fossil fuel WindAstronomical Sci -> Int’l Space ParticipationCell Transplantation -> Umbilical Stem Cells
10-10-10 Copyright 2010 © Wise Landfill Recycling & Mining, Inc. Page 13
Political - Economics of EthanolEconomic Threshold of Grain Ethanol
Bio-fuels from FoodEcocologically unfriendly Eco-crops
Apocalyptic DeforestationWestern Climate and use of Corn
Commoditiy PricingEconomics of fertilizer vs. Bio-fertilizers
Supply Dilemma of EthanolEthanol from Cellulose
Sugar LimitationsProduction Threshold 10-10-10 Copyright 2010 © Wise Landfill Recycling . Page 14
Economic & Ecological EthanolNext Generation Cellulosic Systems
The use of MicrobesIncrease in feedstock or product
Reuse and Recycling of PulpBy-products and markets
Economics To Look ForEconomic Thresholds
Breakeven Profit AnalysisRaw Material to Product Output RatioRaw Material Supplies
10-10-10 Copyright 2010 © Wise Landfill Recycling & Mining, Inc. Page 15
Differences in Ethanol Production
10-10-10 Copyright 2010 © Wise Landfill Recycling & Mining, Inc. Page 16
How 3F Inc. Accellerates the Supply
10-10-10 Copyright 2010 © Wise Landfill Recycling & Mining, Inc. Page 17
What Fits Your Transition PlanUtilizing Integrated By-products with Ethanol
Does The System Provide Renewable Energy?Bio-compost Bio-gas Bio-oil Bio-plasticsBldg-integrated Energy CO2 Sales Bio-FertilizerFood Suppliments Glass Aggregate Wind PowerHydrogen Bio-fuel Jet Grade Bio-fuel Oxy-fuelBio-pharma Solar Non-coal Fuel Pellets Water
The Need for Bio-fuels and RenewablesCost to install Renewables in Iran?
vs. Costs of Nuclear facilities, or War?
10-10-10 Copyright 2010 © Wise Landfill Recycling & Mining, Inc. Page 18
Solving Supply EconomicsBio-fuels needed to meet Oil Shortfall
U.S. average fuel demand is 3,898,886,420 brls.112,348,162,808 gallons gasoline 51,405,066,828 gallons diesel
E85 is 72% and Bio-diesel is 86% of the energy in petroleum
Replace the 7.3% shortfall7.3% of the current U.S. fuel demand is equal to
23.5b gallons of ethanol, bio-diesel, jet fuel, bio-oil & bio-plastics
Equal to 103 of 3F Inc’s facilities in the first yearAt a cost of $40.53b US; decreasing scale after
Copyright 2010 © Wise Landfill Recycling & Mining, Inc. Page 19
Refining Cost vs Bio-fuel Capital CostOperating Costs to run U.S. Refineries
Total operating expenses for U.S. oil refineries:$1.465 trillion U.S. dollars
Could use it to buy 4,000+ Plants Next generation bio-fuel systemsProduce renewable energy in concert
Global Operating CostsGlobal operating expenses for oil refineries:
$10.7 trillion dollars (estimated)Could buy 20,000 Plants
10-10-10 Copyright 2010 © Wise Landfill Recycling & Mining, Inc. Page 20
Next Steps In The PlanSustainable Renewable Choices
This is the opportunity to explore your optionsAssess your best economic & technological fit
Rate Economic Performance of these systemsFind your next-generation of Sustainable Fuels
Utilize Renewables Efficiently and EffectivelyIt is easy to Retrofit existing infrastructure
There is a huge market for it
Supplies can coincide with Economic Change If Expansion Phases are timed to bring Renewable
Systems to market quickly and methodically 10-10-10 Copyright 2010 © Wise Landfill Recycling & Mining, Inc. Page 21
Now is the Time to Plan Your Oil Transition
A healthy environment makes for a healthy people and a healthy economy.
Copyright 2010 © Wise Landfill Recycling & Mining, Inc.
A Presentation of
For Fuel Freedom (3F Inc.)
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