Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan

Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts

Maury Galbraith

Northwest Power and Conservation CouncilGenerating Resource Advisory Committee Meeting

Portland, ORJanuary 22, 2009

Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil

2Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil

Outline

1. Recap of Major AURORA Updates

2. Update of Regional Portfolio Standard (RPS) Resource Development

3. Partial Update of New Generating Resource Options

4. Forecast Wholesale Power Market Prices

Major AURORA Updates

Reduction in the number of load-resource zones used to model the Western Interconnect

Updated transmission links between the modeled load-resource zones Updated demand forecasts for each of the load-resource zones Updated fuel price forecasts for each of the zones Updated hydro condition modeling for the Northwest zones Updated inventory of existing generating resources in each of the

zones Updated estimates of future Regional Portfolio Standard

resource development by zone Updated inventory of candidate resources for future development

by zone Improved dispatch parameter for combined cycle combustion

turbines Updated carbon dioxide price forecasts

Higher Natural Gas PricesMedium Long-term Trend Forecasts for PNW Zones

10.00J

Draft 6th Plan - PNW Westside

Draft 6th Plan - PNW Eastside

Interim Forecast - PNW Westside

Interim Forecast - PNW Eastside

Carbon Dioxide Emission PricesAll Zones

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Interim Base Case

High CO2 Price Case

5th Plan Average CO2 Prices

WECC Load & Resource Balance – EnergyEconomic Dispatch Basis Under Average Hydro Conditions

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Demand Curtailment

New AURORA Resources

RPS Resources

Existing Resources

Requirements

PNW Load & Resource Balance – EnergyEconomic Dispatch Basis Under Average Hydro Conditions

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Demand Curtailment

Imports

RPS Resources

Existing Resources

Requirements

Incremental RPS Energy by State

10,000

12,000

14,000

CA Incremental RPS Energy Mix

Target First Achieved in 2015

WA Incremental RPS Energy Mix

Full Target Achievement

OR Incremental RPS Energy Mix

MT Incremental RPS Energy Mix

WECC New AURORA Resource Energy by Technology

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

NR 500 MW Wind - MT to PNW

NR 100 MW Wind - Local

NR 2x45 Aero GT

NR 415 MW Adv CC

PNW New AURORA Resource Energy by Technology

NR 2x45 Aero GT

NR 415 MW Adv CC

Energy SummaryPreliminary Results – More Resources Options in Future Runs

• “Forced” Incremental RPS Resources Additions– WECC: 12,500 MWa by 2030

– PNW: 2,070 MWa by 2030

– RPS Resource Technologies Vary by State

– CA Begins to Achieve Targets in 2015

– MT, OR, and WA Achieve All RPS Targets

• “Simulated” New AURORA Resource Additions– WECC: 25,000 MWa by 2030

– PNW: 2,430 MWa by 2030

– PNW Additions begin in 2029

WECC Load & Resource Balance – CapacitySustained Peaking Capability

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

RPS Resources

Existing Resources

Peak Hour Demand

Reserve Margin Target

PNW Load & Resource Balance – CapacitySustained Peaking Capability

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

RPS Resources

Existing Resources

Peak Hour Demand

Reserve Margin Target

WECC Incremental RPS Capacity and Peak Contribution

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Capacity

Peak Contribution

WECC New AURORA Resource Capacity by Technology

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

NR 2x45 Aero GT

NR 415 MW Adv CC

WECC New AURORA Resource Peak Contribution by Technology

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

NR 2x45 Aero GT

NR 415 MW Adv CC

PNW New AURORA Resource Capacity by Technology

NR 2x45 Aero GT

NR 415 MW Adv CC

PNW Total RPS and New AURORA Resource Capacity

10,000

12,000

14,000

Natural Gas

Other Renewable

Capacity SummaryPreliminary Results – More Resources Options in Future Runs

• “Forced” Incremental RPS Resources Additions– WECC: 37,800 MW by 2030

– PNW: 6,370 MW by 2030

– 30% Average Contribution to Meeting Planning Reserve Margin

• “Simulated” New AURORA Resource Additions– WECC: 61,640 MW by 2030

– PNW: 5,590 MW by 2030

– PNW Additions begin in 2029

– 70% Average Contribution to Meeting Planning Reserve Margin

Historic Mid-C Average Monthly On- and Off-Peak Prices Source: IntercontinentalExchange (ICE)

On-peak Off-peak

$45.00/MWh$41.50/MWh

$60.00/MWh

$45.20/MWh $50.00/MWh $56.00/MWh

Forecast Mid-C Average Monthly On- and Off- Peak Prices AO_6P_11112008_NEWRES_HD

On-peak Off-peak

Impact of AURORA Updates on Mid-CWholesale Power Price Forecast

Interim Price Forecast

Updated Demand/ Fuel

Updated RPS

Updated New Resources

Next Steps

Updated transmission links between the modeled load-resource zones

Updated hydro condition modeling for the Northwest zones

Improved dispatch parameter for combined cycle combustion turbines

Updated carbon dioxide price forecasts

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts

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