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Northwest Power and Conservation Council. Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts. Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council Generating Resource Advisory Committee Meeting Portland, OR January 22, 2009. Outline. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan
Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts
Maury Galbraith
Northwest Power and Conservation CouncilGenerating Resource Advisory Committee Meeting
Portland, ORJanuary 22, 2009
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
2Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Outline
1. Recap of Major AURORA Updates
2. Update of Regional Portfolio Standard (RPS) Resource Development
3. Partial Update of New Generating Resource Options
4. Forecast Wholesale Power Market Prices
3Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Major AURORA Updates
Reduction in the number of load-resource zones used to model the Western Interconnect
Updated transmission links between the modeled load-resource zones Updated demand forecasts for each of the load-resource zones Updated fuel price forecasts for each of the zones Updated hydro condition modeling for the Northwest zones Updated inventory of existing generating resources in each of the
zones Updated estimates of future Regional Portfolio Standard
resource development by zone Updated inventory of candidate resources for future development
by zone Improved dispatch parameter for combined cycle combustion
turbines Updated carbon dioxide price forecasts
4Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Higher Natural Gas PricesMedium Long-term Trend Forecasts for PNW Zones
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
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7.00
8.00
9.00
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20
06
$/M
MB
Tu
Draft 6th Plan - PNW Westside
Draft 6th Plan - PNW Eastside
Interim Forecast - PNW Westside
Interim Forecast - PNW Eastside
5Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Carbon Dioxide Emission PricesAll Zones
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
20
06
$/s
ho
rt t
on
of
CO
2
Interim Base Case
High CO2 Price Case
5th Plan Average CO2 Prices
6Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
WECC Load & Resource Balance – EnergyEconomic Dispatch Basis Under Average Hydro Conditions
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
An
nu
al
Av
era
ge
En
erg
y (
MW
a)
Demand Curtailment
New AURORA Resources
RPS Resources
Existing Resources
Requirements
7Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
PNW Load & Resource Balance – EnergyEconomic Dispatch Basis Under Average Hydro Conditions
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
An
nu
al
Av
era
ge
En
erg
y (
MW
a)
Demand Curtailment
Imports
New AURORA Resources
RPS Resources
Existing Resources
Requirements
8Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Incremental RPS Energy by State
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
En
erg
y (
MW
a)
WA
OR
NV
NM
MT
CO
CA
BC
AZ
9Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
CA Incremental RPS Energy Mix
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
En
erg
y (
MW
a)
PV
WND
HYD
GEO
CSP
BIO
Target First Achieved in 2015
10Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
WA Incremental RPS Energy Mix
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
En
erg
y (
MW
a)
PV
WND
HYD
GEO
CSP
BIO
Full Target Achievement
11Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
OR Incremental RPS Energy Mix
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
En
erg
y (
MW
a)
PV
WND
HYD
GEO
CSP
BIO
Full Target Achievement
12Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
MT Incremental RPS Energy Mix
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
En
erg
y (
MW
a)
PV
WND
HYD
GEO
CSP
BIO
Full Target Achievement
13Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
WECC New AURORA Resource Energy by Technology
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
En
erg
y (
MW
a)
NR 500 MW Wind - MT to PNW
NR 100 MW Wind - Local
NR 2x45 Aero GT
NR 415 MW Adv CC
14Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
PNW New AURORA Resource Energy by Technology
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
En
erg
y (
MW
a)
NR 500 MW Wind - MT to PNW
NR 100 MW Wind - Local
NR 2x45 Aero GT
NR 415 MW Adv CC
15Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Energy SummaryPreliminary Results – More Resources Options in Future Runs
• “Forced” Incremental RPS Resources Additions– WECC: 12,500 MWa by 2030
– PNW: 2,070 MWa by 2030
– RPS Resource Technologies Vary by State
– CA Begins to Achieve Targets in 2015
– MT, OR, and WA Achieve All RPS Targets
• “Simulated” New AURORA Resource Additions– WECC: 25,000 MWa by 2030
– PNW: 2,430 MWa by 2030
– PNW Additions begin in 2029
16Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
WECC Load & Resource Balance – CapacitySustained Peaking Capability
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Ca
pa
cit
y (
MW
)
New AURORA Resources
RPS Resources
Existing Resources
Peak Hour Demand
Reserve Margin Target
17Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
PNW Load & Resource Balance – CapacitySustained Peaking Capability
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Ca
pa
cit
y (
MW
)
New AURORA Resources
RPS Resources
Existing Resources
Peak Hour Demand
Reserve Margin Target
18Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
WECC Incremental RPS Capacity and Peak Contribution
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Ca
pa
cit
y (
MW
)
Capacity
Peak Contribution
19Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
WECC New AURORA Resource Capacity by Technology
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Ca
pa
cit
y (
MW
)
NR 500 MW Wind - MT to PNW
NR 100 MW Wind - Local
NR 2x45 Aero GT
NR 415 MW Adv CC
20Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
WECC New AURORA Resource Peak Contribution by Technology
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Pe
ak
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n (
MW
)
NR 500 MW Wind - MT to PNW
NR 100 MW Wind - Local
NR 2x45 Aero GT
NR 415 MW Adv CC
21Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
PNW New AURORA Resource Capacity by Technology
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Ca
pa
cit
y (
MW
)
NR 500 MW Wind - MT to PNW
NR 100 MW Wind - Local
NR 2x45 Aero GT
NR 415 MW Adv CC
22Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
PNW Total RPS and New AURORA Resource Capacity
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Ca
pa
cit
y (
MW
)
Natural Gas
Other Renewable
Wind
23Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Capacity SummaryPreliminary Results – More Resources Options in Future Runs
• “Forced” Incremental RPS Resources Additions– WECC: 37,800 MW by 2030
– PNW: 6,370 MW by 2030
– 30% Average Contribution to Meeting Planning Reserve Margin
• “Simulated” New AURORA Resource Additions– WECC: 61,640 MW by 2030
– PNW: 5,590 MW by 2030
– PNW Additions begin in 2029
– 70% Average Contribution to Meeting Planning Reserve Margin
24Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Historic Mid-C Average Monthly On- and Off-Peak Prices Source: IntercontinentalExchange (ICE)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
20
06
$/M
Wh
On-peak Off-peak
$45.00/MWh$41.50/MWh
$60.00/MWh
$45.20/MWh $50.00/MWh $56.00/MWh
25Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Forecast Mid-C Average Monthly On- and Off- Peak Prices AO_6P_11112008_NEWRES_HD
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
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80
90
100
110
120J
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$/M
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On-peak Off-peak
26Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Impact of AURORA Updates on Mid-CWholesale Power Price Forecast
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2008
2010
2012
2014
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2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Mid
-C P
ow
er
Pri
ce
s (
20
06
$/M
Wh
)
Interim Price Forecast
Updated Demand/ Fuel
Updated RPS
Updated New Resources
27Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Next Steps
Updated transmission links between the modeled load-resource zones
Updated hydro condition modeling for the Northwest zones
Improved dispatch parameter for combined cycle combustion turbines
Updated carbon dioxide price forecasts