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Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
WelcomeBienvenidos
Presenter:Stacy Harwood
Scenario Planning What do you think might happen in Los Llanos and Cañitas in the future?
Planificación de Escenarios¿Qué piensan que puede pasar en el futuro en Los Llanos y Cañitas?
Symposium June 27, 2003
Simposio 27 de junio de 2003
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Presentation Outline Esquema de la Presentación
Presenter: Yelias Bender
I. Project Overview and Introduction /
II. Study Area /
III. Inventory and Analysis /
IV. Projected Growth and Implications /
V. Introduction to Scenarios Building /
VI. Next Steps /
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Presentation Outline Esquema de la Presentación
Presenter: Marisa Zapata
I. Project Overview and Introduction /
II. Study Area /
III. Inventory and Analysis /
IV. Projected Growth and Implications /
V. Introduction to Scenarios Building /
VI. Next Steps /
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Introduction Introducción
Presenter: Marisa Zapata
• Scenario planning basics/
• Why scenario planning in monteverde/
• Project context/
• Project goals/
• Project objectives/
• Identifying assumptions and uncertainties (inventory of data}/
• Scenarios Developed
• Project Assumptions
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Scenario Planning Basics IntroductionBasicos de plan de escenario Introducción
• Scenario planning is the process of creating “reasonably plausible, but structurally different” outcomes for the future *
• Scenario planning helps communities conceptualize how their future may unfold under a given set of criteria
• Scenario building versus visioning
* Heijden, as quoted in Avin and Dembner
Presenter: Marisa
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
•Undergoing significant change with uncertain outcomes Sufre cambios significativos con resultados inciertos
• Community interest in long term planning for the region
Comunidad interesada en planificación a largo plazo
• Diversity of values and views about the future Diversidad en valores y visiones del futuro
Why scenario planning in Monteverde Zone? ¿Por que la planificación de escenarios en Monteverde?
Introduction
Introducción
Presenter: Marisa Zapata
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Project Context Introduction
Contexto de Proyecto Introducción
Scenario Planning in the Monteverde Zone
• 2001: Monteverde, Cerro Plano
• 2002: Santa Elena
• 2003: Los Llanos, Cañitas
• 2004: San Luis, La Lindora …
Presenter: Marisa Zapata
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Presenter: Marisa Zapata
Project Goals IntroductionMetas del Proyecto Introducción
• To visualize alternative futures for land-use development in Los Llanos & Cañitas.
Para visualizar futuros alternativos para el desarrollo del uso de la tierra en Los Llanos & Cañitas.
• To develop design guidelines for conservation and development in the Monteverde Region over the next few years.
Para desarrollar el diseño de directrices de conservación y desarrollo para la región de Monteverde para los próximos años.
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Project Objectives Introduction Objectivos del Proyecto Introducción
Presenter: Marisa Zapata
• To develop an understanding of the history of land-use development in Los Llanos & Cañitas.Para desarrollar una comprensión de la historia del desarrollo del uso de la tierra en Los Llanos & Cañitas.
• To generate a map of current conditions of the study area using existing resources and group obeservations and measurements Para producir un mapa de las condiciones actuales de parte de la zona a través del uso de los mapas existentes, fotografías aéreas, observaciones desde el suelo y medidas, planos, etc.
• To develop alternative scenarios for Los Llanos & Cañitas -- using history of development and current conditions as the basis for future projections.Para desarrollar escenarios alternativos para Los Llanos & Cañitas -- usando la historia del desarrollo y las condiciones actuales como base para las proyecciones futuras.
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Inventory of Data Introduction Inventario del Proyecto Introducción
• Research and Documentation Patterns of Development & Land-use Investigación y Documentación de los Patrones de Desarrollo
• Historic maps and Interviews with Local Leaders and Organizations about Development History Mapas históricos y entrevistas a líderes locales y organizaciones
• Projections of Structures and Population for 2010 and 2020Proyecciones de estructuras y población para el 2010 y el 2020
• Traffic StudyConteo de tráfico
Presenter: Marisa Zapata
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Scenarios Developed Introduction
Escenarios Desarrollados Introducción
• Scenario 1: Business as Usual
• Scenario 2: Ecotourism and Conservation
• Scenario 3: Diversification of Economic Base and Community Life
Presenter: Marisa Zapata
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Project Assumptions IntroductionSuposiciones del Proyecto Introducción
• Continued population growth (migration and natural increase) Crecimiento poblacional continuo (inmigración y crecimiento natural)
• Tourism remains main economic engine of the region El turismo seguirá siendo el motor de la economía regional
• Continued efforts at conservationContinuarán los esfuerzos por la conservación
• Paving of the road and expansion of public transportation systemSe pavimentará el camino y se ampliará el transporte público
• Increasing local government capacitySe incrementará la capacidad de gobierno local
Presenter: Marisa Zapata
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Presentation Outline Esquema de la Presentación
Presenter: Yelias Bender
I. Project Overview and Introduction /
II. Study Area /
III. Inventory and Analysis /
IV. Projected Growth and Implications /
V. Introduction to Scenarios Building /
VI. Next Steps /
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Community Background Study Area
Presenter: Jane Padelford
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Presenter: Jane Padelford
Study AreaArea del Estudio
Political Context
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Community Background Study Area
Cañitas, Guanacaste
• Cañitas was founded in the 1920’s by Don Rafael Trejos
• Electricity and running water came to Cañitas in 1950. At this time there were two dairy fincas.
• The community raised funds to found the first school in 1967.
• Currently the community is building a community center.
Presenter: Jane Padelford
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Community Background Study Area
Los Llanos, Puntarenas
• The first developments in Los Llanos began in 1982, when two dairy farms existed.
• The school was founded in 1991, through funds and donations by local residents.
• The Bellbird Conservation Center was founded to protect critical habitat.
• The first tourism, a riding stable, arrived in 2000.
• Many housing developments have been built in the last 4 years, primarily along the main roads.
Presenter: Jane Padelford
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Environment Study Area
Presenter: Yelias Bender
PURPOSE• To provide a context for physical environment
• To help assess sustainability and conservation in broader context
METHODOLOGY• Cartography
• Interviews
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Environment Study Area
Presenter: Yelias Bender
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Environment Study Area
Presenter: Yelias Bender
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Environment Study Area
Presenter: Yelias Bender
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Environment
Presenter: Yelias Bender
Study Area
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Environment
Presenter: Yelias Bender
Study Area
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Environment
Presenter: Yelias Bender
Study Area
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Environment
Presenter: Yelias Bender
Study Area
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Environment
Presenter: Yelias Bender
Study Area
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Environment Study Area
Presenter: Yelias Bender
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Presentation Outline Esquema de la Presentación
Presenter: Yelias Bender
I. Project Overview and Introduction /
II. Study Area /
III. Inventory and Analysis /
IV. Projected Growth and Implications /
V. Introduction to Scenarios Building /
VI. Next Steps /
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Outline of Inventory and Analysis
• Demographics and Community Attitudes• Mapping Los Llanos and Cañitas• Traffic Study• Development Patterns
Presenter: Yelias Bender
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Demographics and Community Attitudes in the Monteverde Zone
Selective Results from the MVI Household Survey
DemographicsDemográficos
Inventory and Analysis
Inventario y Análisis
Presenter: Kathleen & Marisa
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Purpose• To better understand the social and
economic situation in the Monteverde Zone
• To compare the socio-economic indicators and resident attitudes of Cañitas and Los Llanos with the rest of the region
• To gather information that will help develop accurate scenarios
Presenter: KathleenWilson
Inventory and Analysis
Inventario y Análisis
DemographicsDemográficos
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Methodology:• Create summary statistics with selective
variables from the MVI Household Survey– Comparison of means and frequencies by
community.
• About the survey:– Sponsored by the Monteverde Institute – Door-to-door survey from August and September
2002– Open and closed-ended questions– 532 households and 93 tourist businesses surveyed – 74% of respondents were women, 26% men
Presenter: Kathleen Wilson
Inventory and Analysis
Inventario y Análisis
DemographicsDemográficos
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Household Size (Persons/Hh)Santa Elena 4.08Los Llanos 4.17Canitas 4.03Total 4.02
Total in Household EmployedSanta Elena 2.01Los Llanos 2.36Canitas 2.11Total 2.07
% Who Live in Zone PermanentlySanta Elena 84.6Los Llanos 96.7Canitas 90.6Total 88.1
% who own their homeSanta Elena 67.4Los Llanos 79.2Canitas 75.8Total 73.3
Basic Household Characteristics
Presenter: Kathleen Wilson
Inventory and Analysis
Inventario y Análisis
DemographicsDemográficos
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
% of households with a septic tankSanta Elena 99.5Los Llanos 93.9Canitas 92.3Total 96.8
% with a means of transportationSanta Elena 46.7Los Llanos 54.7Canitas 66.7Total 51.3
Santa Elena 80.9Los Llanos 45.3Canitas 78.8Total 72.8
% responding with a "positive" or "very positive" about tourism
Basic Household Characteristics
Presenter: Kathleen Wilson
Inventory and Analysis
Inventario y Análisis
DemographicsDemográficos
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
In Zone Since Birth
Born Outside the Zone
Same Community
Different Community
Santa Elena 27.9 7.7 64.5
Los Llanos 17 28.3 54.7
Cañitas 33.3 9.1 57.6
Total Zone 29.4 14.1 56.7
Residents’ Place of Birth (as a % of the total community)
Presenter: Kathleen Wilson
Inventory and Analysis
Inventario y Análisis
DemographicsDemográficos
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Santa Elena
Cerro Plano
Monte Verde Cañitas
Los Llanos Zone
Roads 73 64 67 82 80 66
Health Care 23 23 29 30 13 21
Recreation 19 18 39 24 34 23
Attitudes about Services(% responding “not adequate”)
Presenter: Kathleen Wilson
Inventory and Analysis
Inventario y Análisis
DemographicsDemográficos
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Employment in the MV Zone:
• 532 Households in sample• Average Household Size = 4.02• Total Number of People Represented = 2,139
• Average # of Workers per Household = 2.07• Total of Workers Represented = 1,101
• Total Number of Jobs Represented = 1,256• Average Number of Jobs per Worker = 1.14
Presenter: Marisa Zapata
Inventory and Analysis
Inventario y Análisis
DemographicsDemográficos
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Presenter: Marisa Zapata
Inventory and Analysis
Inventario y Análisis
DemographicsDemográficos
Artesania
La Familia Vargas
SE ¢ 85,000*
Lechería
MV¢45,000*
SE¢75,000*
Ama de casa
Artesanía*Payment per month
A working family in Monteverde
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
45% work in Los Llanos Monteverde
Cerro Plano
Santa Elena
Los LlanosLos Llanos
CañitasCañitas
14%
7%
26%
15%14%6%
51% work in Cañitas
Other
Other
3%
8%
Where do residents of Cañitas & Los Llanos go to work?
Presenter: Marisa Zapata
Inventory and Analysis
Inventario y Análisis
DemographicsDemográficos
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Next Steps:• Explore additional variables in the survey
– Occupational status
– Income and distribution of wealth in the region
– Year-round versus seasonal work
– Educational attainment and relation to economic opportunity
• Consider how socio-economic indicators may or may not change in the future
Presenter: Kathleen Wilson
Inventory and Analysis
Inventario y Análisis
DemographicsDemográficos
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Mapping Los Llanos & Cañitas Inventory and AnalysisDibujando Los Llanos y Cañitas Inventario y Análisis
Presenter: Brian Gillette
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Purpose / Propósito
• To inventory the existing land-use and development patterns in Los Llanos and Cañitas
• To create a GIS data base of existing conditions
• To project future grown based on current trends
Mapping Los Llanos & Cañitas Inventory and AnalysisDibujando Los Llanos y Cañitas Inventario y Análisis
Presenter: Brian Gillette
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Methodology:
• Major roads and streams based on aerial and past SF maps
• Structures and secondary roads/driveways based on physical inspection and photography
Mapping Los Llanos & Cañitas Inventory and AnalysisDibujando Los Llanos y Cañitas Inventario y Análisis
Presenter: Brian Gillette
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Regional Map Mapa de la Zona
Inventory and Analysis
Inventario y Análisis
Presenter: Brian Gillette
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Focus Map Mapa del foco
Inventory and Analysis
Inventario y Análisis
Presenter: Brian Gillette
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Centers of Community Mapa de los centros del communidad
Inventory and Analysis
Inventario y Análisis
Presenter: Brian Gillette
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Institutions Mapa de los instituciónes
Inventory and Analysis
Inventario y Análisis
Presenter: Brian Gillette
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Commercial Maps
Mapa del comercial Mapas
Presenter: Brian Gillette
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Residential Mapa residencial
Inventory and Analysis
Inventario y Análisis
Presenter: Brian Gillette
Scenario Planning
Sustainable Futures 2003
Plan de Escenario
Summary table Tabla Sumario
Structures by Community
(2001-2003)
Residential Commercial Institutional Other Total
Cañitas 50 5 6 2 63
Los Llanos 178 5 2 2 187
Santa Elena 404 96 21 16 537
Cerro Plano * 141 86 14 2 243
Monteverde 146 48 7 13 214
Total 919 240 50 35 1244
* from 2001 scenario planning report
Inventory and Analysis
Inventario y Análisis
Presenter: Brian Gillette
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