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RISK ASSESSING THE ‘PERFECT MURDER`
Alan Smith
Director | Matrix Risk Control
IADC SAPC
16 February 2017
A RISK ASSESSMENT AS WE KNOW IT?
TIMELINE OF A
MURDER
March 22nd Fraser arrested for Att murder
April 5th Car set on fire April 28th
Arlene vanishes
April 26th Fraser +2 charged
January 7th Murder Trial No. 1
January 29th Fraser Convicted Of murder January 30th
Fraser begins life Sentence May 25th
Conviction quashed
April 23rd Murder Trial No. 2
May 30th Fraser convicted For second time
Premeditated murder is the crime of wrongfully and intentionally causing the death of another human being…
This particular High RiskTask = The premeditated murder of his wife.
…after rationally considering the timing or method of doing so, in order to either increase the likelihood of success, or to evade detection or apprehension
PREMEDITATED CRIMES SPONTANEOUS CRIMES
In the UK 98% of murders are spontaneous
Nat Fraser
SO WHY? - HIGH TARIFF REWARD
MONEY
Impending divorce settlement
FREEDOM
Facing lengthy prison sentence
CONTROL
Of his life and what’s in it
NAT FRASERS 4PS
PREPARATION PLANNING
PEOPLE PROCESS
Selecting Team / Roles / Method Body Disposal /
Alibi
Team Briefings – Covert meetings – His TBT !
Loyal, trustworthy and incentivised / Logistics /
Execution
De-Risking Police from a Murder Investigation (High) to a Missing person Enquiry
(Med/Low)
Investigative Challenges
NO BODY NO CRIME SCENE
NO CONFESSION
NO DIRECT WITNESSES
FRASER`S
MISTAKES
ALIBI
INSIDE
KNOWLEDGE
DRUG
STAGING
LIBRARY
VISIT
ACCOMPLICE
CAR
SOURCING
MEDICINES
& GLASSES
ARLENE’S
RINGS
FRASER`S
MISTAKES
ALIBI
INSIDE
KNOWLEDGE
DRUG
STAGING
LIBRARY
VISIT
ACCOMPLICE
CAR
SOURCING
MEDICINES
& GLASSES
ARLENE’S
RINGS
FRASER`S
BEHAVIOUR
OVERKILL RESPONSE
THE KIDS WILL BE FINE
MONEY STASH
AVOIDED CONTACT
WITH ACCOMPLICES
PRISON VISIT CCTV
MATCHED FAMILY
REWARD
INTERACTION WITH FAMILY
SHUNNED SOME
FRIENDS
FRASER`S
BEHAVIOUR
OVERKILL RESPONSE
THE KIDS WILL BE FINE
MONEY STASH
AVOIDED CONTACT
WITH ACCOMPLICES
PRISON VISIT CCTV
MATCHED FAMILY
REWARD
INTERACTION WITH FAMILY
SHUNNED SOME
FRIENDS
TYPICAL INCIDENT CAUSES
RARELY SINGLE MAJOR
MISTAKE
ACCUMULATION OF MINOR
ERRORS
FAILURE TO FOLLOW
PROCEDURES
UNEXPECTED CHANGE
POOR HUMAN
FACTORS
POOR INVESTIGATIONS
AND RCA
LESSONS NOT
LEARNED
NO ORGANISATIONAL
IMPROVEMENT
A toolset and learning experience
to get to the ROOT CAUSES of problems
more quickly and efficiently.
Uses proven INVESTIGATION techniques
grounded in forensic practices
to generate the optimum input data.
Utilises unique COMET ROOTMAPS
to identify root causes.
Assists in creating PREVENTIVE ACTIONS
to deal with the root cause preventing repeat
failure.
Application Areas
…any situation where you need to know why something went
wrong and how to prevent it again.
Safety Incidents Environmental Incidents
Project reviews Business strategy failures
Performance improvement Process failure
Market / Product failures Equipment failure
Accidents and injuries. Spillages, leaks and damage.
Learning lessons on failure to deliver. Understanding ‘lost’ and ‘wrong’ strategies.
Losses and inefficiencies. Non-adherence and ineffective.
Unable to achieve intended results. Costly shutdowns and outages
COMET Phases of Investigation &
Analysis…
What we see…
Today I’m fishing!
Committed JV Drilling COMET lens project partner Serious about improving sector safety and performance
Enthusiastic about investigation, analysis and improvement
Willing to contribute Drilling industry technical knowledge to project development
Be a geographical and sector COMET Champion and Enablor
What am I fishing for?
Over to You.
Any Questions?
Show Designed by Eilidh Harding of
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