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PLAN WARRENTON 2040This is YOUR town. This is YOUR neighborhood. This is YOUR plan.
Public Workshop #2August 28, 2019
Next Steps
Agenda
6:05pm Welcome
6:15pm Presentation and Scenario Preferences
7:15pm Open House style feedback on Scenarios
8:00pm Workshop adjourns
The Plan update involves…
• Assessing existing conditions and trends
• Confirming and consolidating recommendations and policies from other recent planning efforts
• Identifying areas in need of additional study
• Confirming the vision and developing scenarios
• Creating the policy updates
• Identifying the implementation mechanisms
• Adopting the updated plan
We are here…
• Assessing existing conditions and trends
• Confirming and consolidating recommendations and policies from other recent planning efforts
• Identifying areas in need of additional study
• Confirming the vision and developing scenarios
• Creating the policy updates
• Identifying the implementation mechanisms
• Adopting the updated plan
TRENDS & ISSUES
COMPREHENSIVEPLAN UPDATE
Population growth has slowed in Warrenton compared with peer communities, and we are getting older as a community
Pop. Growth
2000-2017
+625
55+
-72
0-45
0.8%
’00-’10 ‘10-’17
4.1%
Age Change
2010-2017
Warrenton’s job sector growth
and decline matches
surrounding areas, but job
growth overall in Town is below
peer communities
Average House Values By Year Built
$303,374
’00-’09 ‘10-’18’80-’89 ‘90-’99
$358,476$374,110
$228,563
The Town’s existing housing
stock is almost exclusively
single family housing (91% of
land; 94% of building s.f.)
COMPREHENSIVEPLAN UPDATE
Growth Dynamics
Town 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040
Warrenton 4,830-6,670
(38.1%)6,670-9,611
(44.1%)9,611-10,008
(4.1%)10,008-10,415
(4.0%)10,415-10,815
(3.8%)
Culpeper 8,581-9,664
(12.6%)9,664-16,379
(69.5%)16,379-19,132
(16.8%)19,132-21,932
(14.6%)21,932-24,732
(12.7%)
Winchester 21,947-23,585
(7.5%)23,585-26,203
(11.1%)26,203-28,804
(9.9%)28,804-31,005
(7.6%)31,005-32,770
(5.7%)
Leesburg 16,202-28,311
(74.7%)28,311-42,616
(50.5%)42,616-56,675
(32.9%)56,675-70,802
(25.0%)70,802-84,928
(20.0%)
COMPREHENSIVEPLAN UPDATE
National Trends
• Silver Tsunami – aging
population
• Major disruption in
traditional retail
• Housing affordability
• New transportation
technologies
• Hyper-connected
COMPREHENSIVEPLAN UPDATE
Other Local Taxes
State revenues
Use of balance
Charges for services
General property
taxes
Other local revenue Federal revenue
The Town’s revenues predominantly (45%) rely on retail and commercial taxes coming commercial corridors
Approximately 61% of people living in Warrenton work outside of the Town with commutes that exceed 30 minutes one-way
Residents consistently cite the need for more active transportation options such as walking and biking in the community
$
COMPREHENSIVEPLAN UPDATE
Insights from analysis and public
engagement to date
COMPREHENSIVEPLAN UPDATE
• We want to retain our historic character and preserve existing places and landscapes
• We want more vitality in Warrenton• Not enough restaurants, not enough things to do for kids
• No local entertainment, or higher end grocery/retail destinations – we have to leave Town to access these
• We want new development so long as it is distinctive in character and form - and doesn’t look like everywhere else
What we heard from you:
COMPREHENSIVEPLAN UPDATE
• We want to see our existing local businesses thrive and grow
• We want to see our commercial corridors redevelop
• We want Old Town to flourish with more places to shop, eat, enjoy culture and socialize
• We need more public amenities related to parks, trails and recreation opportunities for all ages
• We want to retain our rural buffers around Town
• We want more walkability
• We want to retain and add more canopy trees
What we heard from you:
COMPREHENSIVEPLAN UPDATE
How can the Comp Plan support these goals?
• The Town needs more people and more diverse housing options to support these desired outcomes in a manner that retains its unique character• The town needs to change its development policies to encourage more
people to locate here
• Rooftops alone won’t drive enough new foot traffic – need to look at other economic drivers for business growth• The town needs to change its development policies and rules and focus its
economic development efforts to attract more job-creating activities that match the local assets (history, culture, agriculture, recreation, IT and healthcare)
• Getting the type of development we want also means changing the development review processes to ensure we retain the Warrenton character
Feedback confirms the three major
themes for the Comprehensive Plan
COMMUNITY CHARACTER
The way our buildings,
natural spaces, public art and public
places look and feel
contributes to our overall
sense of place
COMMUNITY HEALTH
How we develop our community impacts our
physical, mental and social well-
being
ECONOMIC & FISCAL HEALTH
How we develop and
focus our economic
development efforts
influences our quality of life
and access to opportunity
Feedback shaped the Warrenton Scenarios
Warrenton Scenarios
• Alternative stories about the future based on goals shared by the public and market opportunities in the region
• Built on plausible assumptions about growth rates, economic development opportunities and physical capacity for infill/redevelopment
• Each scenario assumes different rates of growth, location of that growth and mixture of uses
• All scenarios tested for fiscal resilience (how can we afford more people and jobs)
Conceptual Scenarios
A B C D
SCENARIO B - BECOME A STRONGER LIVABLE COMMUNITY
BECOME A STRONGER LIVABLE COMMUNITY
Support local retail, bring more diverse housing to town and strengthen local amenities. Grow at a rate like our neighboring communities
BECOME A STRONGER LIVABLE COMMUNITY SCENARIO
BECOME A STRONGER LIVABLE COMMUNITY
BECOME A STRONGER LIVABLE COMMUNITY
BECOME A STRONGER LIVABLE COMMUNITY
SCENARIO C -BECOME A LIVABLE DESTINATION COMMUNITY
BECOME A DESTINATION IN THE REGION
Support local businesses and
events that attract people to
town from across the region.
Strengthen unique
experiences in Warrenton
around history, unique
restaurants and the arts. Grow
at a rate similar to the region
BECOME A DESTINATION IN THE REGION
BECOME A DESTINATION IN THE REGION
BECOME A DESTINATION IN THE REGION
BECOME A DESTINATION IN THE REGION
BECOME A DESTINATION IN THE REGION
SCENARIO D - BECOME REGIONAL LIVE/WORK COMMUNITY
BECOME REGIONAL LIVE/WORK COMMUNITY
Support job growth to
attract major new
employers and strengthen
livable amenities and
housing diversity to grow
and attract talented
workforce. Gain a greater
share of regional growth
and outpace neighboring
areas.
BECOME A STRONG LIVE/WORK COMMUNITY
BECOME A STRONG LIVE/WORK COMMUNITY
Transforming a flood plain into a public amenity
BECOME A STRONG LIVE/WORK COMMUNITY
A B C D
BASELINE Concept 1 Concept 2 Concept 3
FISCAL TREND LINEBase Scenario Compared to Concepts
What did we learn? (PRELIMINARY!)
A. The ‘don’t change’ base scenario will have adverse impacts on the Town’s fiscal health
B. The mix of uses and intensity of development matters
C. Balancing residential development with commercial growth will be critical from a financial feasibility perspective
Net Difference
from Baseline
Warrenton Scenarios
Base A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D
Discussion
A. More jobs and business growth locally (12)
B. Old Town gets more foot traffic (11)
C. More housing options (14)
D. Preserving existing neighborhoods (2)
E. Revitalizing commercial corridors (Broadview, Lee Highway)(5)
F. More destinations (places to play, shop, socialize) locally (12)
G. More local amenities related to parks, trails and recreation options (8)
Based on the major themes of the scenarios – what are the top two
elements that you think we should focus on to help bring new vitality to our
Town?
Community selected preferences from August 28th workshop
A. Base Scenario (0)
B. Stronger Livable Community Scenario (4)
C. Livable Destination Community Scenario (6)
D. Regional Live/Work Community Scenario (18)
Based on the major themes of the scenarios – what scenario direction
resonates the most with you?
Community selected scenario preferences from August 28th workshop
Next Steps
Tonight: Open house style feedback on the scenarios
Next five months:
• Town Council Presentation (Sept.)
• Comprehensive Plan Policy Updates drafted (Sept.-Oct.)
• Comprehensive Plan Update Draft For Comment (Nov.-Dec.)• Last round of public meetings
• Comprehensive Plan Adoption (Jan. 2020)• Final plan adoption public hearings
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