PLAN WARRENTON 2040€¦ · (2) E. Revitalizing commercial corridors (Broadview, Lee Highway)(5) F. More destinations (places to play, shop, socialize) locally (12) G. More local

PLAN WARRENTON 2040This is YOUR town. This is YOUR neighborhood. This is YOUR plan.

Public Workshop #2August 28, 2019

Next Steps

Agenda

6:05pm Welcome

6:15pm Presentation and Scenario Preferences

7:15pm Open House style feedback on Scenarios

8:00pm Workshop adjourns

The Plan update involves…

• Assessing existing conditions and trends

• Confirming and consolidating recommendations and policies from other recent planning efforts

• Identifying areas in need of additional study

• Confirming the vision and developing scenarios

• Creating the policy updates

• Identifying the implementation mechanisms

• Adopting the updated plan

We are here…

• Assessing existing conditions and trends

• Confirming and consolidating recommendations and policies from other recent planning efforts

• Identifying areas in need of additional study

• Confirming the vision and developing scenarios

• Creating the policy updates

• Identifying the implementation mechanisms

• Adopting the updated plan

TRENDS & ISSUES

COMPREHENSIVEPLAN UPDATE

Population growth has slowed in Warrenton compared with peer communities, and we are getting older as a community

Pop. Growth

2000-2017

+625

55+

-72

0-45

0.8%

’00-’10 ‘10-’17

4.1%

Age Change

2010-2017

Warrenton’s job sector growth

and decline matches

surrounding areas, but job

growth overall in Town is below

peer communities

Average House Values By Year Built

$303,374

’00-’09 ‘10-’18’80-’89 ‘90-’99

$358,476$374,110

$228,563

The Town’s existing housing

stock is almost exclusively

single family housing (91% of

land; 94% of building s.f.)


Growth Dynamics

Town 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040

Warrenton 4,830-6,670

(38.1%)6,670-9,611

(44.1%)9,611-10,008

(4.1%)10,008-10,415

(4.0%)10,415-10,815

(3.8%)

Culpeper 8,581-9,664

(12.6%)9,664-16,379

(69.5%)16,379-19,132

(16.8%)19,132-21,932

(14.6%)21,932-24,732

(12.7%)

Winchester 21,947-23,585

(7.5%)23,585-26,203

(11.1%)26,203-28,804

(9.9%)28,804-31,005

(7.6%)31,005-32,770

(5.7%)

Leesburg 16,202-28,311

(74.7%)28,311-42,616

(50.5%)42,616-56,675

(32.9%)56,675-70,802

(25.0%)70,802-84,928

(20.0%)


National Trends

• Silver Tsunami – aging

population

• Major disruption in

traditional retail

• Housing affordability

• New transportation

technologies

• Hyper-connected


Other Local Taxes

State revenues

Use of balance

Charges for services

General property

taxes

Other local revenue Federal revenue

The Town’s revenues predominantly (45%) rely on retail and commercial taxes coming commercial corridors

Approximately 61% of people living in Warrenton work outside of the Town with commutes that exceed 30 minutes one-way

Residents consistently cite the need for more active transportation options such as walking and biking in the community

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Insights from analysis and public

engagement to date


• We want to retain our historic character and preserve existing places and landscapes

• We want more vitality in Warrenton• Not enough restaurants, not enough things to do for kids

• No local entertainment, or higher end grocery/retail destinations – we have to leave Town to access these

• We want new development so long as it is distinctive in character and form - and doesn’t look like everywhere else

What we heard from you:


• We want to see our existing local businesses thrive and grow

• We want to see our commercial corridors redevelop

• We want Old Town to flourish with more places to shop, eat, enjoy culture and socialize

• We need more public amenities related to parks, trails and recreation opportunities for all ages

• We want to retain our rural buffers around Town

• We want more walkability

• We want to retain and add more canopy trees

What we heard from you:


How can the Comp Plan support these goals?

• The Town needs more people and more diverse housing options to support these desired outcomes in a manner that retains its unique character• The town needs to change its development policies to encourage more

people to locate here

• Rooftops alone won’t drive enough new foot traffic – need to look at other economic drivers for business growth• The town needs to change its development policies and rules and focus its

economic development efforts to attract more job-creating activities that match the local assets (history, culture, agriculture, recreation, IT and healthcare)

• Getting the type of development we want also means changing the development review processes to ensure we retain the Warrenton character

Feedback confirms the three major

themes for the Comprehensive Plan

COMMUNITY CHARACTER

The way our buildings,

natural spaces, public art and public

places look and feel

contributes to our overall

sense of place

COMMUNITY HEALTH

How we develop our community impacts our

physical, mental and social well-

being

ECONOMIC & FISCAL HEALTH

How we develop and

focus our economic

development efforts

influences our quality of life

and access to opportunity

Feedback shaped the Warrenton Scenarios

Warrenton Scenarios

• Alternative stories about the future based on goals shared by the public and market opportunities in the region

• Built on plausible assumptions about growth rates, economic development opportunities and physical capacity for infill/redevelopment

• Each scenario assumes different rates of growth, location of that growth and mixture of uses

• All scenarios tested for fiscal resilience (how can we afford more people and jobs)

Conceptual Scenarios

A B C D

SCENARIO B - BECOME A STRONGER LIVABLE COMMUNITY

BECOME A STRONGER LIVABLE COMMUNITY

Support local retail, bring more diverse housing to town and strengthen local amenities. Grow at a rate like our neighboring communities

BECOME A STRONGER LIVABLE COMMUNITY SCENARIO




SCENARIO C -BECOME A LIVABLE DESTINATION COMMUNITY

BECOME A DESTINATION IN THE REGION

Support local businesses and

events that attract people to

town from across the region.

Strengthen unique

experiences in Warrenton

around history, unique

restaurants and the arts. Grow

at a rate similar to the region






SCENARIO D - BECOME REGIONAL LIVE/WORK COMMUNITY

BECOME REGIONAL LIVE/WORK COMMUNITY

Support job growth to

attract major new

employers and strengthen

livable amenities and

housing diversity to grow

and attract talented

workforce. Gain a greater

share of regional growth

and outpace neighboring

areas.

BECOME A STRONG LIVE/WORK COMMUNITY


Transforming a flood plain into a public amenity


A B C D

BASELINE Concept 1 Concept 2 Concept 3

FISCAL TREND LINEBase Scenario Compared to Concepts

What did we learn? (PRELIMINARY!)

A. The ‘don’t change’ base scenario will have adverse impacts on the Town’s fiscal health

B. The mix of uses and intensity of development matters

C. Balancing residential development with commercial growth will be critical from a financial feasibility perspective

Net Difference

from Baseline

Warrenton Scenarios

Base A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D

Discussion

A. More jobs and business growth locally (12)

B. Old Town gets more foot traffic (11)

C. More housing options (14)

D. Preserving existing neighborhoods (2)

E. Revitalizing commercial corridors (Broadview, Lee Highway)(5)

F. More destinations (places to play, shop, socialize) locally (12)

G. More local amenities related to parks, trails and recreation options (8)

Based on the major themes of the scenarios – what are the top two

elements that you think we should focus on to help bring new vitality to our

Town?

Community selected preferences from August 28th workshop

A. Base Scenario (0)

B. Stronger Livable Community Scenario (4)

C. Livable Destination Community Scenario (6)

D. Regional Live/Work Community Scenario (18)

Based on the major themes of the scenarios – what scenario direction

resonates the most with you?

Community selected scenario preferences from August 28th workshop

Next Steps

Tonight: Open house style feedback on the scenarios

Next five months:

• Town Council Presentation (Sept.)

• Comprehensive Plan Policy Updates drafted (Sept.-Oct.)

• Comprehensive Plan Update Draft For Comment (Nov.-Dec.)• Last round of public meetings

• Comprehensive Plan Adoption (Jan. 2020)• Final plan adoption public hearings

Documents

PLAN WARRENTON 2040€¦ · (2) E. Revitalizing commercial corridors (Broadview, Lee Highway)(5) F. More destinations (places to play, shop, socialize) locally (12) G. More local