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Participants:Participants:
• Dr. German Poveda (Co-PI)• Dr. German Poveda (Co-PI)
• Dr. Martha Lucia Quiñonez• Dr. Martha Lucia Quiñonez
• Dr. Ivan Dario Velez• Dr. Ivan Dario Velez
• Dr. Luz Elena Velásquez• Dr. Luz Elena Velásquez
• Dr. William Rojas• Dr. William Rojas
• Dr. Juan S. Zapata• Dr. Juan S. Zapata
Students:Students:
• Guilhermo Leon Rua (PhD student)• Guilhermo Leon Rua (PhD student)
• Daniel Ruiz (MsC student)• Daniel Ruiz (MsC student)
• Juan Santiago Zuluaga (MsC student)• Juan Santiago Zuluaga (MsC student)
• Olver Hernandez (undergraduate)• Olver Hernandez (undergraduate)
• Elisabeth Zapata (undergraduate)• Elisabeth Zapata (undergraduate)
• Eriko P. Alarcon (undergraduate)• Eriko P. Alarcon (undergraduate)
• Leysa J. Gomez (undergraduate)• Leysa J. Gomez (undergraduate)
Colombia Colombia
Colombia Colombia
• Development of a mathematical model to explain malaria incidence linked to climatic parameters.
• Development of a mathematical model to explain malaria incidence linked to climatic parameters.
• Studying the linkages between entomological and climatological variables through field and laboratory work.
• Studying the linkages between entomological and climatological variables through field and laboratory work.
• Creation of a Geographical Information System for Malaria in Colombia (SIGMA).
• Creation of a Geographical Information System for Malaria in Colombia (SIGMA).
Study Sites:Study Sites:• Endemic-epidemic regions for malaria in the
lowlands of Colombia:• Endemic-epidemic regions for malaria in the
lowlands of Colombia:
• Nuqui (northwestern Colombia).• Nuqui (northwestern Colombia).
• El Bagre (Pacific Coast).• El Bagre (Pacific Coast).
Findings:Findings:
• Temperature strongly affects the life cycle of An. albimanus, the main malaria vector.
• Temperature strongly affects the life cycle of An. albimanus, the main malaria vector.
• Modelling efforts confirm the importance of temperature in explaining malaria incidence.
• Modelling efforts confirm the importance of temperature in explaining malaria incidence.
Colombia Colombia
Publications:Publications:
WAYLEN, P., & POVEDA, G., 2002. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and aspects of Western South America Hydroclimatology. Hydrological Processes, 16, 1247-1260.
WAYLEN, P., & POVEDA, G., 2002. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and aspects of Western South America Hydroclimatology. Hydrological Processes, 16, 1247-1260.
POVEDA, G., 2002. Climate and ENSO Associations with Malaria Incidence in Colombia, En: Examples of ENSO-Society Interactions, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI), http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/societal/example/Poveda.html. On the web since Octuber 18,2002.
POVEDA, G., 2002. Climate and ENSO Associations with Malaria Incidence in Colombia, En: Examples of ENSO-Society Interactions, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI), http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/societal/example/Poveda.html. On the web since Octuber 18,2002.
• Three presentations at the Conference Climate Variability and Change and their Health Effects in the Caribbean: Information for Climate Variability and Change Adaptation Planning in the Health Sector. Pan American Health Organization / World Health Organization. Bridgetown, Barbados, mayo 21-22, 2002.
• Three presentations at the Conference Climate Variability and Change and their Health Effects in the Caribbean: Information for Climate Variability and Change Adaptation Planning in the Health Sector. Pan American Health Organization / World Health Organization. Bridgetown, Barbados, mayo 21-22, 2002.
Colombia Colombia
Publications:Publications:
RUIZ. D.; POVEDA, G.; QUIÑONEZ, M.L.; VÉLEZ, I.D.; RÚA, G.; ROJAS, W.; ZULUAGA, J.S. Modelling entomological-climatic interaction of malaria transmission. Study case: El Niño 1997-1998 and La Niña 1998-2000.
RUIZ. D.; POVEDA, G.; QUIÑONEZ, M.L.; VÉLEZ, I.D.; RÚA, G.; ROJAS, W.; ZULUAGA, J.S. Modelling entomological-climatic interaction of malaria transmission. Study case: El Niño 1997-1998 and La Niña 1998-2000.
RÚA, G.; QUIÑONEZ, M.L.; VÉLEZ, I.D.; ROJAS, W.; POVEDA, G.; ZULUAGA, J.S.; RUIZ. D. Effect of temperature on the gonotrophic cycle of Anofeles albimanus (Diptera: Culicidae) in relation with the event El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
RÚA, G.; QUIÑONEZ, M.L.; VÉLEZ, I.D.; ROJAS, W.; POVEDA, G.; ZULUAGA, J.S.; RUIZ. D. Effect of temperature on the gonotrophic cycle of Anofeles albimanus (Diptera: Culicidae) in relation with the event El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
RÚA, G.; QUIÑONEZ, M.L.; VÉLEZ, I.D.; ROJAS, W.; POVEDA, G.; ZULUAGA, J.S.; RUIZ. D.; MANTILLA, R. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related to malaria transmission, density and parity of Anofeles albimanus and An. darlingi (Diptera: Culicidae) in two areas in Colombia.
RÚA, G.; QUIÑONEZ, M.L.; VÉLEZ, I.D.; ROJAS, W.; POVEDA, G.; ZULUAGA, J.S.; RUIZ. D.; MANTILLA, R. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related to malaria transmission, density and parity of Anofeles albimanus and An. darlingi (Diptera: Culicidae) in two areas in Colombia.
Colombia Colombia
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Date [DD/MM/YY]
Mal
aria
inci
de
nce
27,0
27,5
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30,0
T [
°C]
IFEP Prev T [°C]Host population
Climatic patterns
Mosquito population
Egg Larva Pupa Adult male
Susceptiblevector
Infectedvector
Infectiousvector
Susceptible Infected Infectious
Immune
BLOODMEAL
Gametocytesingestion
DT
DP
RH
SM
WPBLOODMEAL
Sporozoitesinoculation
Breeding placesavailability model
Predator-prey-foodmodels
Pre-imago stages
Left: Main linkages and feedbacks between diverse components of the mathematical model.
Left: Main linkages and feedbacks between diverse components of the mathematical model.
Right: Time series of model results for base scenario.
Right: Time series of model results for base scenario.
Colombia Colombia
Graphical interface module for simultaneous malaria and climate records
Graphical interface module for simultaneous malaria and climate records
Colombia Colombia
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