Note TH Drought Situation 20150709 Final

Disclaimer: The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither we nor any of our respective affiliates, employees or representatives make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained in this report, and we and our respective affiliates, employees or representatives expressly disclaim any and all liability relating to or resulting from the use of this report or such information by the recipient or other persons in whatever manner. Any opinions presented herein represent our subjective views and our current estimates and judgments based on various assumptions that may be subject to change without notice, and may not prove to be correct. This report is for the recipients information only. It does not represent or constitute any advice, offer, recommendation, or solicitation by us and should not be relied upon as such. We, or any of our associates, may also have an interest in the companies mentioned herein.

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() (El Nino) 0.4% El Nino

El Nino 25 2015 20 .. ..

46%1 45%

2

- ( ) 7.7 2% 4% 31-33 32 (1) 25% 5

1

15 2015 2

25 2015

9 2015

Disclaimer: The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither we nor any of our respective affiliates, employees or representatives make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained in this report, and we and our respective affiliates, employees or representatives expressly disclaim any and all liability relating to or resulting from the use of this report or such information by the recipient or other persons in whatever manner. Any opinions presented herein represent our subjective views and our current estimates and judgments based on various assumptions that may be subject to change without notice, and may not prove to be correct. This report is for the recipients information only. It does not represent or constitute any advice, offer, recommendation, or solicitation by us and should not be relied upon as such. We, or any of our associates, may also have an interest in the companies mentioned herein.

(2) - 7 50% 50% .. .. 8.6 1.5% 3,800

3 1) ..-.. 2) 3) (...) 84 - 500 1-1.3 3,400

15 2015 90% El Nino 2015 85% 2016 (Yield) 2005 10 (3) 16,000 2015 2005

-

Disclaimer: The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither we nor any of our respective affiliates, employees or representatives make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained in this report, and we and our respective affiliates, employees or representatives expressly disclaim any and all liability relating to or resulting from the use of this report or such information by the recipient or other persons in whatever manner. Any opinions presented herein represent our subjective views and our current estimates and judgments based on various assumptions that may be subject to change without notice, and may not prove to be correct. This report is for the recipients information only. It does not represent or constitute any advice, offer, recommendation, or solicitation by us and should not be relied upon as such. We, or any of our associates, may also have an interest in the companies mentioned herein.

3.45 16,500 75% 90,000 8.6 ( 1 3 )

El Nino El Nino (4) () () ( ) ( )

Implication

1-2% 30% 0.4%

Disclaimer: The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither we nor any of our respective affiliates, employees or representatives make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained in this report, and we and our respective affiliates, employees or representatives expressly disclaim any and all liability relating to or resulting from the use of this report or such information by the recipient or other persons in whatever manner. Any opinions presented herein represent our subjective views and our current estimates and judgments based on various assumptions that may be subject to change without notice, and may not prove to be correct. This report is for the recipients information only. It does not represent or constitute any advice, offer, recommendation, or solicitation by us and should not be relied upon as such. We, or any of our associates, may also have an interest in the companies mentioned herein.

1: 2014

25 . . 2015

:

-28%

-13%

-

-24%-26%

-13%

20132012 20152014

4 9 13 19 12

(% )

25 . . 2015

:

-4%

-21%

-11%

-6%

-2%

-

2015

2014

2013

2012

32 128 185 190

( )

: EIC

2:

: EIC

Disclaimer: The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither we nor any of our respective affiliates, employees or representatives make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained in this report, and we and our respective affiliates, employees or representatives expressly disclaim any and all liability relating to or resulting from the use of this report or such information by the recipient or other persons in whatever manner. Any opinions presented herein represent our subjective views and our current estimates and judgments based on various assumptions that may be subject to change without notice, and may not prove to be correct. This report is for the recipients information only. It does not represent or constitute any advice, offer, recommendation, or solicitation by us and should not be relied upon as such. We, or any of our associates, may also have an interest in the companies mentioned herein.

3: 1997 - 2010

: EIC

4: El Nino : EIC Financial Time Research

: (teerayut.thaiturapaisan@scb.co.th)

SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) EIC Online: www.scbeic.com