Non-Res Lighting Savings Forecast Project Timelines

September 6th

Non-Res Lighting Savings Forecast

Project Timelines

Hot Water

ETHAN MANTHEY

JESSICA AIONA

NON-RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING

MOMENTUM SAVINGS FORECAST

MODEL STRUCTURE AND SCOPE

3

Sectors

14

Applications

3

Purchase

Triggers

16

Technologies

CALCULATING MARKET SAVINGS

Baseline Stock

Consumption

Actual Stock

Consumption

Baseline = Frozen Baseline = Sales Mix Frozen at 2015 Efficiency

Market Savings

RAPID CHANGE EXPECTED

24% DECREASE IN

CONSUMPTION

372 aMW

MARKET SAVINGS

LED Sales Dominate in 2020

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

TLED

T5SO

T5HO

T12

Pin CFL

Metal Halide

Mercury Vapor

LED Luminaire

LED Lamp

Inc

High PressureSodiumHal

CFL

32W T8

28W T8

25W T8

57% LED Sales by 2020

Technology 2015 2020

25W T8 1.4% 0.5% 28W T8 6.3% 3.3% 32W T8 40.5% 21.5% CFL 3.5% 1.0% Hal 3.6% 1.9% High Pressure Sodium 0.7% 0.4% Inc 7.0% 1.7% LED Lamp 6.7% 12.9% LED Luminaire 4.8% 16.7% Mercury Vapor 0.0% 0.0% Metal Halide 2.1% 0.5% Pin CFL 8.1% 5.1% T12 6.5% 2.2% T5HO 4.6% 3.8% T5SO 1.3% 0.7% TLED 3.0% 27.8%

LED Stock Grows Quickly

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2,015 2,016 2,017 2,018 2,019 2,020

TLEDT5SOT5HOT12Pin CFLMetal HalideMercury VaporLED LuminaireLED LampIncHigh Pressure SodiumHalCFL32W T828W T825W T8

43% LED Stock by 2020

Technology 2015 2020

25W T8 2.2% 1.1% 28W T8 6.0% 5.2% 32W T8 47.4% 33.9% CFL 4.2% 0.8% Hal 1.1% 0.4% High Pressure Sodium 1.4% 0.5% Inc 1.8% 0.3% LED Lamp 6.3% 12.7% LED Luminaire 2.3% 13.6% Mercury Vapor 0.1% 0.0% Metal Halide 3.3% 1.0% Pin CFL 6.5% 4.1% T12 8.7% 3.4% T5HO 5.2% 5.0% T5SO 2.3% 1.4% TLED 1.1% 16.5%

JESSICA AIONA

BONNIE WATSON

ETHAN MANTHEY

16

TIMELINES

17

Lighting

Outdoor Lighting Stock Assessment (Planning Phase)

Kicked Off June 29

Data Collection Protocols Dec.-Jan. ’18 RTF Market Analysis Subcommittee Mar. ‘18 Outline of Research Approach Apr. ‘18

18

Lighting

Distributor Sales Data

In Contracting Kick Off in October

Engage Distributors Jan. - Apr. ’18 Data by July ’18

Res Lighting Model RBSA

Calibration and Capacity Integration

Scoping Fall-Jan. '18 Updating model Jan.-May/June '18 Complete June '18

19

HVAC

HVAC Market Intelligence Study

Kicked Off August 1 Technology Guide Nov. ’17 Expert Interviews Sept.–Oct. ‘17 AHR HVAC Trade Show Mar. ’18 NEEA Distributor Sales Data

Kicked Off Engaging with distributors Oct.-Nov. ’17 Sales Data Results Q1, ‘18

20

HVAC

Res HVAC Model Development

Planned to Kick Off in in October Model Method – Nov. ‘17 RTF Subcommittee – TBD Model Sprints – Dec. ‘17- Ongoing

Res HVAC Baseline Study Planning

Contract This Fall Research Plan – Early ‘18 Field Data Collection Protocol – Early ‘18

21

Data Centers

Market Intelligence and Scoping

Study Kick Off September 8 Review Existing Sources Sept. - Oct. ’18 Expert Interviews Dec. - Jan. ‘18 Model Scope & Method Apr. ‘18

Hot Water

Model Scoping

Kicked Off August 16

Model Inputs Research – Sept. ‘17 Methodology Working Session – Oct. ’17 RTF Subcommittee – Nov. ‘17 Model Method – Jan. ’18

Model Development

Contract this Fall

BONNIE WATSON

Deep Dive:

Hot Water Model

Scoping

WHY WE CARE

market shifts

high energy

use

savings potential

THE ULTIMATE GOAL

Understand how

total energy consumption

for residential hot water

is changing over time, and

estimate momentum savings

for the 7th Power Plan.

HOW WE GET THERE

1. Begin exploration of building a full-market

residential consumption model for the 7th

Power Plan time period

2. Figure out what data is available to us now

3. Assess data gaps

4. Develop plan for moving forward

THE TASKS Task 1. Model Inputs Research (September)

Review existing sources • 7th Power Plan, RTF workbooks, BPA and regional

program data, RBSA, others

Determine magnitude of potential momentum savings over the 7th Plan period

THE TASKS Task 2. Working Session (October)

Explore options to answer the questions in BPA’s four-question framework: • Question 1: What is the market? • Question 2: How big is the market? • Question 3: What are the total market savings? • Question 4: What are the program savings? Essentially – how do we think we are going to determine momentum savings for this market?

THE TASKS Task 3. RTF Market Analysis Subcommittee

(November)

We want input, review, and guidance • High level approach • Methodological questions

We very much value stakeholder SME review and feedback

THE TASKS Task 4. Model Scope and Method (January)

Builds off previous tasks, roadmap of where we are going. Documents the approach and calls out next steps (e.g., filling data gaps) Deliverable: written memo

NEXT PHASE

The next phase is to begin building out a hot water full market consumption model (Beginning in January)

THX!

See you October 4th!