Upload
dexter-matthewson
View
216
Download
1
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Electric Power Sector Emissions Forecast and RES Analysis
Peter CiborowskiApril 15, 2013
ForecastHistoric
GHG Electric Power Emission Sources
In-stateCombustion fossil CO2, CH4, N2O
Flue gas desulphurization fossil CO2
Coal storage CH4
Hydroelectric reservoirs CH4
Transmission SF6
Out-of-stateCombustion fossil CO2, CH4, N2O
General Approach
In-state GenerationMWH MMBtu input emissionsHeat rateEmission rateFuel energy content fuel useCapacity factor capacity
Out-of-state GenerationMWH emissionsEmission rate
Sources for Net Generation Forecast
Nonrenewable generationXCEL, MP, OTP, ISP, GRE, MPC, SMMPA: 2012 MN Annual Electric Report
- covers 97% of nonrenewable net generationOther (mainly municipals with associated district heating): 3-year historic average, 2009-2011
Renewable generationExisting facilities: Mostly 3-year historic average, 2009-2011 or, for reporting utilities, 2012 Annual Electric Report forecastPlanned facilities: Most recent Integrated resource plans, characteristic capacity factorsFurther expansion under out-year RES requirements: RES requirements assessment, 40% wind capacity factor, location based on historic in-state vs out-of-state deployment
Why Minnesota Annual Electric Report Forecast?
• model-based economic dispatch • internal consistency on a utility-by-utility basis
between forecasted electric demand and forecasted unit dispatch and purchases
• near-comprehensive coverage of GHG-emitting generation sources
• ease of annual update to the forecast
RES Assessment Components
• Retail sales forecast, utility by utility• % RES requirement (MN, WI, MT), utility by utility• Forecasted generation, capacity and capacity factors at existing
and planned units• Unit retirements
• RES requirements satisfied if:-generation from existing or planned units in any one year plus REC
purchases that year minus REC sales that year plus banked RECs (4-yr shelf life) = REC retirement requirement
-if not, add wind capacity in 5 MW increments until deficit disappears
RES Assessment (cont.)
• Utility or utility groups with MN RES obligations: XCEL, MP, OTP, ISP, GRE, DPC, MPC, East River, L&O, MRES, Heartland, CMMPA, MMPA, SMMPA
• Mandatory RES requirements affecting MN utilities: MN RES, WI RPS, MT RPS
• State-specific RPS requirements: see documentation• Geographical scope for REC generation: M-RETs region
• Source for retail sales forecasts, 2012-2025: 2012 MN Annual Electric Report and, for nonreporting utilities, least square fit to retail sales data, 2001-2011
• Source for RECs ownership: RES compliance filings• Future use of purchased REC purchases: none
Note: forecast line with red triangles is forecast
used in this analysis
Net Imports
• Net imports before losses = Retail sales minus in-state net generation
• T&D losses typically 5 to 7%
• 2010 Minnesota example: Retail sales 67,800 GWhIn-state net genn 52,663 GWhLine loss 4,573 GWhDeficit before line loss 15,137 GWhSource: EIA, Minnesota Electricity Profile 2010 (2012)
Unit Retirements
XCEL Energy: Black Dog units 3-4, Wilmarth units 1-2, Red Wing units 1-2, Key City, Granite CityMinnesota Power: Sappi unit 5Otter Tail Power: Hoot Lake units 2-3Rochester Public Utilities: Silver LakeAustin Utilities: Austin NE: unit 1 (converson to natural gas)
Unit Additions (cumulative MW increase from 2012)
• Simple cycle gas turbine: 9 MW 2013, 33 MW 2014, 132 MW 2015, 224 MW 2018
• Combined cycle gas turbine: 195 MW 2018, 390 MW 2019, 585 2020, 780 MW 2023, 975 MW 2024, 1,807 MW 2025
• Wind: 40 MW 2013, 53 MW 2014, 74 MW 2015, 87 MW 2016, 124 MW 2017, 133 MW 2019, 285 MW 2020, 296 MW 2021, 300 MW 2022, 719 MW 2023, 915 MW 2024, 928 MW 2025
ForecastHistoric
Forecast
Historic
EIA 2013 Annual Energy Outlook MRO-west Net Generation Forecast
2010 2025 % change
Renewable Energy (million MWH)
Wind 20.25 32.12 +59%
Photovoltaic 0 0 0%
Biomass 0.67 1.19 +78%
MMSW 1.39 0.48 -65%
Hydroelectric 10.9 10.23 -6%
subtotal 33.21 44.12 +33%
Other (million MWH)
Coal 125.66 127.26 +1%
Oil 0.16 0.43 +169%
Natural gas 6.22 8.3 +33%
Nuclear 28.98 30.72 +6%
Pumped storage 0.32 0.32 0%
Distributed generation 0 0.13 NA
Carbon Dioxide (million tons) 149.01 151.9 +2%
RES Miscellanea 2015 2025
In-state renewable net generation (GWh)
11,859.7 14,735.8
Out-of-state renewable net generation (GWh)
8,760.3 10.009.8
RECs required to be retired under MN RES
9.998 million 20.205 million
Banked RECs 53.3 million 36.3 million
Ratio of Banked RECS to needed annual MN REC retirements
5.3: 1 1.8:1
Conclusions
• GHG emissions from the Minnesota power sector are likely to largely unchanged, 2013-2025
• Declining emissions from imports are largely offset by increasing emissions from expanded natural gas use
• By the end of 2012, 70% of the emission reductions in-state that might be expected under the RES are likely to already have been realized
• Electric power sector GHG emissions at 2015 will be 15% below 2005 levels, meeting the statutory target
Retirements
Coal Displacement: 2005-2011
2005 2008 2010 20112011 minus
2005% increase, 2005-2011
Net In-state Generation (million MWH)
Coal 34.302 31.177 27.540 27.698 (6.604) -19.25%
Nuclear 12.835 12.997 13.478 11.959 (0.877) -6.83%
MMSW and solid biomass 0.994 1.252 1.452 1.328 0.334 +33.65%
Natural gas-gas turbine 2.314 2.672 4.026 3.068 0.754 +32.58%
Hydroelectric 0.806 0.754 0.764 0.700 (0.106) -13.16%
Wind turbine 1.673 4.376 5.234 7.323 5.650 +337.61%
Other 1.127 0.519 0.447 0.446 (0.681) -60.44%
Total 54.05 53.75 52.94 52.52 (1.530) -2.83%
Imports (million MWH)
16.539 18.274
17.888
19.020 2.481 +15.00%
Imports as % of in-state plus out-of-state generation 23.43% 25.37% 25.25% 26.59%
Retail sales (million MWH) 66.019 68.159 67.205 67.852 1.833 +2.78%
Proposed RES Modeling Assumptions• Where not prescribed by a carve-out, wind is the
technology of choice• Natural gas back-up generation to wind be
calculated at 5 to 15% of wind generation• New wind capacity factors will rise to 40% by
2015• The location of additional wind capacity (in-state,
out-of-state) will follow historical patterns • Wind will displace either baseload coal or
imports; the calculation should be done both ways
2020 2025 2030
GHGs-avoided (CO2-e tons)
9,368,330 10,494,954 12,123,747
Renewable Energy Generation (MWH)
12,350,799 14,735,831 17,057,227
Renewable Energy Capacity Added
3,742 4,385 5,050
Emission-avoided Factor 0.76 0.71 0.71
In-state Coal Net Generation Fraction
0.48 0.44 NA
Coal plant Capacity Factor
0.88 0.81 NA
RES 27 (current policy) Emissions-avoided
forecasthistoric
RES and SES Scenarios
RES37: revised weighted RES of 37% at 2030 (30% at 2025, 24% at 2020)
RES37-accelerated: revised weighted RES of 37% at 2030 (34%% at 2025, 29% at 2025)
SES10: SES of 10% at 2030 (5% at 2025, 2% at 2020)
SES2: SES of 2% at 2020
RES and SES Analysis
2020 2025 2030
2030: in-state to out-of-state PV builds set at historic renewable levels
Incremental GHGs-avoided (CO2-e tons)
RES37 (8,490) 86,999 2,130,586 NA
RES37-accelerated 278,163 2,577,742 2,950,568 NA
SES10 954,974 1,333,778 4,611,241 3,038,263
SES2 1,140,022 1,125,681 1,162,900 793,706
incremental additional renewable energy MWH-generated
RES37 (10,804) 118,846 2,947,523 NA
RES37-accelerated 356,538 3,540,840 4,081,343 NA
SES10 1,191,576 1,787,060 6,379,343 4,203,234
SES2 1,425,690 1,492,738 1,542,973 1,053,115
RES and SES Analysis (cont.)
2020 2025 2030
2030: in-state to out-of-state PV builds set at historic renewable levels
incremental additional renewable energy MW installed capacity
RES37 (5) 35 996 NA
RES37-accelerated 100 1,009 1,423 NA
SES10 805 1,205 4,288 2,827
SES2 962 1,007 1,041 712
emission-avoided factor (CO2-e tons/MWH-avoided)
RES37 0.79 0.73 0.72 NA
RES37-accelerated 0.78 0.73 0.72 NA
SES10 0.80 0.75 0.72 0.72
SES2 0.80 0.75 0.75 0.75
RES and SES Analysis (cont.)
2020 2025 2030
2030: in-state to out-of-state PV builds set at historic renewable levels
in-state coal net generation fraction (of in-state net generation)
RES37 0.48 0.44 NA NA
RES37-accelerated 0.48 0.41 NA NA
SES10 0.47 0.42 NA NA
SES2 0.47 0.43 NA NA
coal plant capacity factor
RES37 0.88 0.81 NA NA
RES37-accelerated 0.87 0.77 NA NA
SES10 0.87 0.79 NA NA
SES2 0.86 0.80 NA NA