View
26
Download
2
Category
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
2004 APOGCE Meeting Needs – Leading Change 19 October 2004 1400-1530. Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Rain. Special Session Future Trends. Speaker. Annimac www.annimac.com.au. The Three Wise Monkeys. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Rain
Annimacwww.annimac.com.au
2004 APOGCE
Meeting Needs – Leading Change 19 October 2004 1400-1530
Speaker
Special Session Future Trends
Special Session Future Trends
The Three Wise MonkeysThe Three Wise Monkeys
• The Oil Companies : The Oil Companies : - hear no depletion - hear no depletion
• Governments & International Agencies :Governments & International Agencies : - see no depletion - see no depletion
• And all agree it would be best to :And all agree it would be best to : - talk no depletion - talk no depletion
Typical Oil Depletion Curve
Norway (North Sea)
Werner Zittel , LBST
2004
www.SimmonsCo-Intl.com
The Saudi Reserves are Seriously OverstatedMatthew Simmons. February 2004
Oil & Gas Journal April 12, 2004Douglas - Westwood Ltd
Cambridge UK
Study : World oil forecast
beset with reserves shortfalls
2004
2016
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Pro
du
cti
on
kb
/d
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Dis
co
very G
b (
sh
ad
ed
)
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
China
ASPO Newsletter 40, April 2004 www.PeakOil.netAssociation for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Oil discovery Oil production
Forecast ?
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
OGJ Reserves
2002 IHS Rpt
Data from IHS Energy and OGJ annual reports
IHS and O&GJ Remaining Reserves
Francis Harper ASPO 2004, Berlin
www.PeakOil.net
Why are oil depletion forecasts being down played?
" Do you wish to :
• Kill your careerKill your career
• Head the redundancy listHead the redundancy list
• Be blamed for starting the panic ? Be blamed for starting the panic ? ""
Chris SkrebowskiChris Skrebowski
Institute of Petroleum Institute of Petroleum www.PeakOil.netwww.PeakOil.net
Rate of ChangeRate of Change
• every 5 seconds : new web siteevery 5 seconds : new web site
• every 5 minutes : new technologyevery 5 minutes : new technology
• every 5 days : new product / service
Amount of change now in one day
our Grandparents had in one year
Technology : in 2020
70 % of types of jobs do not exist now
because
80% of technology not yet conceived
Driving all Drivers of ChangeDriving all Drivers of Change
Gap widening : Knowledge
• Haves / have nots
• Age generations
• Globally networked
Speed of Change : Social TrendsSpeed of Change : Social Trends
Based on Technology
• Access
• Skill
• Not wealth
50 % population no phone call
Gap : Haves - Have Nots Gap : Haves - Have Nots
Gap : Age GenerationsGap : Age Generations
Four generations : Three worlds
• Baby Boomers 45 – 60 yrs Materialism• authority : in - defer• economic rationalists : profit• material values : tangibles• science as religion : rational
• Generation X 30 – 45 yrs• clones of Boomers : materialists• copy younger : sustainability
Four generations : Three worlds
• DotComs 15 - 30 yrs Sustainability• global identity• co opitalism• relationships• holistic win - win – win
• Ferals 0 – 15 yrs Virtual• no limits no boundaries• parallel universes • beyond our imagining • create what need
Gap : Age GenerationsGap : Age Generations
Gap : Globally NetworkedGap : Globally Networked
• access all knowledge
• empowered
• confident
• passionately committed
• global view future
Impact for OG IndustryImpact for OG Industry• transiting two worlds - accelerating
• values attitude shifts sustainability
• Big Rollover value driven
• cooperation not competition
• young non negotiators
• relationships : consumers partners innovators
Very special note of appreciation to
Bruce Robinson
www.STCwa.org.au
for his impeccable knowledge
regarding global Oil Depletion and his
generosity in sharing it.
Thank you, Bruce.
annimac
Recommended