Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Rain

                         

                   

Annimacwww.annimac.com.au

2004 APOGCE

Meeting Needs – Leading Change 19 October 2004 1400-1530

Speaker

Special Session Future Trends

Special Session Future Trends

The Three Wise MonkeysThe Three Wise Monkeys

• The Oil Companies : The Oil Companies : - hear no depletion - hear no depletion

• Governments & International Agencies :Governments & International Agencies : - see no depletion - see no depletion

• And all agree it would be best to :And all agree it would be best to : - talk no depletion - talk no depletion

Typical Oil Depletion Curve

Norway (North Sea)

Werner Zittel , LBST

2004

www.SimmonsCo-Intl.com

The Saudi Reserves are Seriously OverstatedMatthew Simmons. February 2004

Oil & Gas Journal April 12, 2004Douglas - Westwood Ltd

Cambridge UK

Study : World oil forecast

beset with reserves shortfalls

2004

2016

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Pro

du

cti

on

kb

/d

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Dis

co

very G

b (

sh

ad

ed

)

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

China

ASPO Newsletter 40, April 2004 www.PeakOil.netAssociation for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Oil discovery Oil production

Forecast ?

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

OGJ Reserves

2002 IHS Rpt

Data from IHS Energy and OGJ annual reports

IHS and O&GJ Remaining Reserves

Francis Harper ASPO 2004, Berlin

www.PeakOil.net

Why are oil depletion forecasts being down played?

" Do you wish to :

• Kill your careerKill your career

• Head the redundancy listHead the redundancy list

• Be blamed for starting the panic ? Be blamed for starting the panic ? ""

Chris SkrebowskiChris Skrebowski

Institute of Petroleum Institute of Petroleum www.PeakOil.netwww.PeakOil.net

Rate of ChangeRate of Change

• every 5 seconds : new web siteevery 5 seconds : new web site

• every 5 minutes : new technologyevery 5 minutes : new technology

• every 5 days : new product / service

Amount of change now in one day

our Grandparents had in one year

Technology : in 2020

70 % of types of jobs do not exist now

because

80% of technology not yet conceived

Driving all Drivers of ChangeDriving all Drivers of Change

Gap widening : Knowledge

• Haves / have nots

• Age generations

• Globally networked

Speed of Change : Social TrendsSpeed of Change : Social Trends

Based on Technology

• Access

• Skill

• Not wealth

50 % population no phone call

Gap : Haves - Have Nots Gap : Haves - Have Nots

Gap : Age GenerationsGap : Age Generations

Four generations : Three worlds

• Baby Boomers 45 – 60 yrs Materialism• authority : in - defer• economic rationalists : profit• material values : tangibles• science as religion : rational

• Generation X 30 – 45 yrs• clones of Boomers : materialists• copy younger : sustainability

Four generations : Three worlds

• DotComs 15 - 30 yrs Sustainability• global identity• co opitalism• relationships• holistic win - win – win

• Ferals 0 – 15 yrs Virtual• no limits no boundaries• parallel universes • beyond our imagining • create what need

Gap : Age GenerationsGap : Age Generations

Gap : Globally NetworkedGap : Globally Networked

• access all knowledge

• empowered

• confident

• passionately committed

• global view future

Impact for OG IndustryImpact for OG Industry• transiting two worlds - accelerating

• values attitude shifts sustainability

• Big Rollover value driven

• cooperation not competition

• young non negotiators

• relationships : consumers partners innovators

Thank youThank you www.annimac.com.au

Very special note of appreciation to

Bruce Robinson

www.STCwa.org.au

for his impeccable knowledge

regarding global Oil Depletion and his

generosity in sharing it.

Thank you, Bruce.

annimac