Neue PowerPoint Template · 2020-02-06 · trends to your budget, you’ll be better prepared to...

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2/5/2020

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©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!

Being proactively reactive with your

budget and strategic plan

Julie CinkExecutive Director of Business ServicesPrior Lake-Savage ISD 719

Bob ManikasSr. Account ExecutiveForecast5 Analytics

©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!

Prepare

P r o j e c t i n g f u n d b a l a n c e

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

($40,000,000)

($20,000,000)

$0

$20,000,000

$40,000,000

$60,000,000

$80,000,000

$100,000,000

$120,000,000

$140,000,000

2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-20

RevisedBudget

20-21

Projected

21-22

Projected

22-23

Projected

23-24

Projected

24-25

Projected

Unassigned Fund Balance as % of Expenditures (+125 students/year)

Fund 01 Expenditures Total Unassigned Fund Balance Fund Balance Percentage

©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!

Prepare

B A S I C F O R M U L A

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©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!

School district budgets have many moving pieces. Analyzing changes to enrollment, staffing, revenues, and expenses are a normal part of managing the yearly budget.

By analyzing and benchmarking historical revenue and expenditure

trends to your budget, you’ll be better prepared to react to the unexpected and reallocate resources well before fiscal year end.

What’s more, by creating and comparing various “what-if” scenarios, districts can remain nimble as they plan for future years.

In this session, we will review successful strategies for being proactively reactive in your budget and strategic planning with an eye on the role of

the School Board in this process.

Strategies for being Proactive

©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!

What do we know about budgets and forecasts? ❑ Complex❑ Confusing❑ Imperative

➢ How do communicate the critical assumptions in the forecast?

What does the community know about budgets and forecasts? ❑ What we tell them❑ What they can find

➢ How do we best tell our story along with the data?

©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!

Fi rs t s teps in be ing proact ively react i ve

D ev e l op g r ou p o f p eer s t o b en c h m ar k ag a i n s t

A s k t h e c r i t i c a l q u es t i on s :

W ha t a r e t he f i na nc i a l t r e nd s t ha t m i g ht

i m p a c t o ur f u t ur e ?

H o w d o t ho s e t r e nd s c o m p a r e t o o t he r s c ho o l s d i s t r i c t s t ha t a r e l i k e us ?

U n d er s t an d y ou r h i s t o r y

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©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!

Histor ica l Trends and Benchmarks

Being Proactively Reactive With

©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!

Histor ica l Trends

Total enrollment growth 2007-2019

©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!

Histor ica l Trends

7,529

7,840

8,307

8,561

8,796 8,838

7,491

7,872

8,277

8,503

8,697

51

45

41

38

54

7,000

7,200

7,400

7,600

7,800

8,000

8,200

8,400

8,600

8,800

9,000

2014-15

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

ENROLLMENT OCT 1 TO END OF YEAR COMPARISONS

Oct 1 Enrollment Served EOY Enrollment Served Tuition Students

Open Enrollment limited to 75 in Kindergarten and 1% grades 1-12

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©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!

Histor ica l Trends

E n r o l l m e n t H i s t o r y – E O Y A D M

©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!

Histor ica l Trends

I m p a c t o f O p e n

E n r o l l m e n t

N e t i m p a c t o f i n b o u n d

v s . o u t b o u n d

L i v e e x a m p l e s

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Histor ica l Trends

I m p a c t o f Op e n E nr o l l m e nt

N et i m p ac t o f i n b ou n d v s . ou t b ou n d

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Histor ica l Trends

I m p a c t o f C h a n g i n g

D e m o g r a p h i c s

B u i l d i n g l e v e l

d e m o g r a p h i c t r e n d s

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Histor ica l Trends

F r e e a n d R e d u c e d

L u n c h T r e n d v s . To t a l E n r o l l m e n t T r e n d

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Histor ica l TrendsF r e e a n d R e d u c e d L u n c h T r e n d

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Histor ica l Trends

Growth in staff FTE vs. growth in enrollment

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Histor ica l Trends

R a t i o A D M S t a f f p e r S t u d e n t

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Histor ica l Trends

E n r o l l m e n t v s . Te a c h e r F T E C h a n g e

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Histor ica l Trends

E n r o l l m e n t v s . A l l F T E C h a n g e

©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!

Histor ica l Trends

R e v e n u e a n d E x p e n s e p e r S t u d e n t

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Histor ica l Trends

R e v e n u e , E x p e n s e , a n d F u n d B a l a n c e

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Histor ica l Trends

C o m p e n s a t o r y R e v e n u e C o m p a r i s o n

©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!

Histor ica l Trends

R e f e r e n d u m A u t h o r i t y

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Histor ica l Trends

Te c h L e v y

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Histor ica l Trends

S p e n d i n g o v e r t i m e

©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!

Histor ica l Trends

S p e n d i n g o v e r t i m e o n a

p e r s t u d e n t b a s i s v s b e n c h m a r k p e e r g r o u p

L i v e e x a m p l e s

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Histor ica l TrendsS p e c i a l E d u c a t i o n S p e n d i n g P e r

A D M C o m p a r i s o n F Y 2 0 1 8

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©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!

Current Year Surve i l lance of the Budget

Being Proactively Reactive With

©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!

Current Year Analys is

P r o j e c t m o n t h l y f u n d - b a l a n c e DEMO DATA

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Current Year Analys is

H i s t o r i c a l a c t u a l s a n d s p e n d i n g t r e n d

DEMO DATA

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©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!

Current Year Analys is

I d e n t i f y h i s t o r i c a l a n o m a l i e s

DEMO DATA

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Current Year Analys is

P r o j e c t m o n t h l y a c t u a l s

DEMO DATA

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Current Year Analys is

Va r i a n c e a n a l y s i s DEMO DATA

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©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!

Current Year Analys is

P r o j e c t e d y e a r - e n d f i n a n c i a l s

DEMO DATA

©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!

“W hat - i f ” Scenar io Analys i s

Being Proactively Reactive With

©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!

Prepare

P r o j e c t i n g f u n d b a l a n c e

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

($40,000,000)

($20,000,000)

$0

$20,000,000

$40,000,000

$60,000,000

$80,000,000

$100,000,000

$120,000,000

$140,000,000

2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-20RevisedBudget

20-21Projected

21-22Projected

22-23Projected

23-24Projected

24-25Projected

Unassigned Fund Balance as % of Expenditures (+125 students/year)

Fund 01 Expenditures Total Unassigned Fund Balance Fund Balance Percentage

34

35

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©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!

Prepare

F u n d B a l a n c e S c e n a r i o C o m p a r i s o n

DEMO DATA

©2019 Forecast5 Analy tics. All Rights Reserved. 2019 National Conf erence - All Sy stems Go!

Thank you!

Questions?

Julie CinkExecutive Director of Business ServicesPrior Lake-Savage ISD 719

Bob ManikasSr. Account ExecutiveForecast5 Analytics

37

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