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Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006. Mapping foresight in Europe and the rest of the world. Michael Keenan (PREST) Maurits Butter (TNO) Graciela de la Fuente (PREST) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology
Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making
28th- 29th September 2006Mapping foresight in Europeand the rest of the world
Michael Keenan (PREST)Maurits Butter (TNO)Graciela de la Fuente (PREST)Rafael Popper (PREST
Mapping foresight in Europe and the rest of the world
Introduction to the EFMN
Main aim:
Systematically monitor foresight activities and identify future emergingissues and innovations as input for innovation policy and strategy
Objectives:
•Global platform for FTA information•Foresight briefs•Foresight mapping
•Identify key emerging issues•Annual workshops•Information management infrastructure
Mapping foresight in Europe and the rest of the world
2: CORRESPONDENTS workingwith CONSORTIUM members
1: An internationalNETWORK of policyprofessionals, foresightexperts & practitioners 3: Periodic provision of
CONTENT
4: An annualISSUE ANALYSISWORKSHOP
5: A WEBSITE forinformation transfer
MAPPING
BRIEFS
Introduction to the EFMN
Mapping foresight in Europe and the rest of the world
management:TNO
mapping:Prest
issue analysis:VDI
briefs:ARC-sys
information:CKA
Correspondents
Partners
Core partners
Introduction to the EFMN
Mapping foresight in Europe and the rest of the world
Mapping foresights
Approach
•Identification of new future initiatives by correspondents, EFMN- partners•Mapping of initiatives by dedicated EFMN experts•Quality control by contact persons of the specific initiatives•Information managed in the Dynamo expert system
Results 2006:
•1410 future initiatives identified and collected•820 future initiatives mapped
Mapping foresight in Europe and the rest of the world
Mapping foresights
Approach
•Identification of new future initiatives by correspondents, EFMN- partners•Mapping of initiatives by dedicated EFMN experts•Quality control by contact persons of the specific initiatives•Information managed in the Dynamo expert system
Results 2006:
•1410 future initiatives identified and collected•820 future initiatives mapped
0 50 100 150 200
AfricaAsia
ChinaIndia
JapanSouth Korea
AustraliaNew Zealand
EuropeEU-25EU-15
AustriaBelgium
DenmarkFinlandFrance
GermanyGreeceIreland
ItalyLuxembourgNetherlands
PortugalSpain
SwedenUnited Kingdom
EU New member statesCyprus
Czech RepublicEstonia
HungaryLatviaMalta
PolandSlovakia
EU candidatesBulgaria
RomaniaTurkey
NorwaySlovenia
SwitzerlandUkraine
IsraelMoldova, Republic of
ArmeniaAmerica
United StatesCanada
South AmericaColombia
PeruBrazil
VenezuelaSaudi ArabiaInternational
Other countries
Mapping foresight in Europe and the rest of the world
Mapping dimensions
– Audience– Sponsor– Content domain– Country– World region– Territorial scale– Market
– Methods– Number of
participants– Output– Time horizon– Year of completion– Research– Industry
Mapping foresight in Europe and the rest of the world
World regions
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Afri
ca
Asi
a
Aus
tralia
EU-1
5+
Euro
peot
her
Tran
sEu
rope
Latin
Am
eric
a
Nor
ther
nA
mer
ica
Research
NGOs
IGO
Government
Business
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Afri
ca
Asi
a
Aus
tralia
EU-1
5+
Euro
peot
her
Tran
sEu
rope
Latin
Am
eric
a
N- A
mer
ica
Trades Unions
Trade Bodies / IndustrialFederationsResearch Community
NGOs
Intermediary organizations
Govt Agencies / Depts
Firms
Sponsors
Target audience
Mapping foresight in Europe and the rest of the world
World regions
Methods used
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0TRM
Delphi
Essays
Futures Workshops
Key Technologies
Scenarios
Africa
Asia
Australia
EU-15+
Europe other
Trans Europe
Latin America
Northern America
Mapping foresight in Europe and the rest of the world
World regions
Multi usage of methods
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Afri
ca
Asi
a
Aus
tralia
EU-1
5+
Euro
pe o
ther
Tran
s Eu
rope
Latin
Am
eric
a
N-A
mer
ica
Technology RoadmapsScenariosResearch and Other PrioritiesPolicy RecommendationsLists of Key TechnologiesForecastsAnalysis of Trends and Drivers
0,0
100,0
200,0
300,0
400,0
500,0
600,0
Afric
a
Asia
Aust
ralia
EU-1
5+
Euro
pe o
ther
Tran
s Eu
rope
Latin
Am
eric
a
North
ern
Amer
ica
Expert Panels
Questionnaire / Survey
Literature ReviewInterviews
Brainstorming
Trend Extrapolation
SWOT Analysis
Modelling & simulation
Megatrend Analysis
Scenarios
Key Technologies
Futures Workshops
Essays
Delphi
TRM
Outputs
Mapping foresight in Europe and the rest of the world
World regions
Territorial scope
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Africa
Asia
Australia
EU-15+
Europe other
Trans Europe
Northern AmericaSub-national
National
Supra national
Transborder
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Sub-national National Supra national Transborder
Mapping foresight in Europe and the rest of the world
Just another appetizer
Frequency of methods used
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Backcas
ting
Delphi
Essays
Futures
Works
hops
Key Tec
hnolo
gies
Scenari
os
Techno
logy R
oadmapp
ing
Environ
mental
Scanning
Megatre
nd Anal
ysis
Modelli
ng an
d simula
tion
SWOT Anal
ysis
Trend Extr
apola
tion
Brainst
orming
Expert
Panels
Interv
iews
Literatu
re Revi
ew
Questionn
aire /
Survey
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Mapping foresight in Europe and the rest of the world
Just another appetizer
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Busi
ness
Gov
ernm
ent
IGO
NG
Os
Oth
ersp
onso
rs
Res
earc
h
Questionnaire / Survey
Literature Review
Interviews
Expert Panels
Brainstorming
Trend Extrapolation
SWOT Analysis
Modelling and simulation
Megatrend Analysis
Environmental Scanning
Technology Roadmapping
Scenarios
Key Technologies
Futures Workshops
Essays
Delphi
Sponsors
Mapping foresight in Europe and the rest of the world
Just another appetizer
Methods used vs time horizon
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Technology Roadmapping
Delphi
Essays
Futures Workshops
Key Technologies
Scenarios
Megatrend Analysis
Modelling & simulation
SWOT Analysis
Trend Extrapolation
Interviews
Literature Review
Questionnaire / Survey
Expert Panels
Brainstorming 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2050
Mapping foresight in Europe and the rest of the world
Further results
•Content perspective•Perspective of participation, audience and sponsors•Methodological perspective•Outlook perspective•Time horizon
EFMN Annual Mapping reportwww.efmn.eu
Mapping foresight in Europe and the rest of the world
Concluding
•Rich source of information•But just a first start•More work to do on quality and quantity
Become a EFMN correspondent
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