Mapping foresight in Europe and the rest of the world

Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology

Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making

28th- 29th September 2006Mapping foresight in Europeand the rest of the world

Michael Keenan (PREST)Maurits Butter (TNO)Graciela de la Fuente (PREST)Rafael Popper (PREST

Mapping foresight in Europe and the rest of the world

Introduction to the EFMN

Main aim:

Systematically monitor foresight activities and identify future emergingissues and innovations as input for innovation policy and strategy

Objectives:

•Global platform for FTA information•Foresight briefs•Foresight mapping

•Identify key emerging issues•Annual workshops•Information management infrastructure


2: CORRESPONDENTS workingwith CONSORTIUM members

1: An internationalNETWORK of policyprofessionals, foresightexperts & practitioners 3: Periodic provision of

CONTENT

4: An annualISSUE ANALYSISWORKSHOP

5: A WEBSITE forinformation transfer

MAPPING

BRIEFS



management:TNO

mapping:Prest

issue analysis:VDI

briefs:ARC-sys

information:CKA

Correspondents

Partners

Core partners



Mapping foresights

Approach

•Identification of new future initiatives by correspondents, EFMN- partners•Mapping of initiatives by dedicated EFMN experts•Quality control by contact persons of the specific initiatives•Information managed in the Dynamo expert system

Results 2006:

•1410 future initiatives identified and collected•820 future initiatives mapped


Mapping foresights

Approach

•Identification of new future initiatives by correspondents, EFMN- partners•Mapping of initiatives by dedicated EFMN experts•Quality control by contact persons of the specific initiatives•Information managed in the Dynamo expert system

Results 2006:

•1410 future initiatives identified and collected•820 future initiatives mapped

0 50 100 150 200

AfricaAsia

ChinaIndia

JapanSouth Korea

AustraliaNew Zealand

EuropeEU-25EU-15

AustriaBelgium

DenmarkFinlandFrance

GermanyGreeceIreland

ItalyLuxembourgNetherlands

PortugalSpain

SwedenUnited Kingdom

EU New member statesCyprus

Czech RepublicEstonia

HungaryLatviaMalta

PolandSlovakia

EU candidatesBulgaria

RomaniaTurkey

NorwaySlovenia

SwitzerlandUkraine

IsraelMoldova, Republic of

ArmeniaAmerica

United StatesCanada

South AmericaColombia

PeruBrazil

VenezuelaSaudi ArabiaInternational

Other countries


Mapping dimensions

– Audience– Sponsor– Content domain– Country– World region– Territorial scale– Market

– Methods– Number of

participants– Output– Time horizon– Year of completion– Research– Industry


World regions

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Afri

ca

Asi

a

Aus

tralia

EU-1

5+

Euro

peot

her

Tran

sEu

rope

Latin

Am

eric

a

Nor

ther

nA

mer

ica

Research

NGOs

IGO

Government

Business

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Afri

ca

Asi

a

Aus

tralia

EU-1

5+

Euro

peot

her

Tran

sEu

rope

Latin

Am

eric

a

N- A

mer

ica

Trades Unions

Trade Bodies / IndustrialFederationsResearch Community

NGOs

Intermediary organizations

Govt Agencies / Depts

Firms

Sponsors

Target audience


World regions

Methods used

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0TRM

Delphi

Essays

Futures Workshops

Key Technologies

Scenarios

Africa

Asia

Australia

EU-15+

Europe other

Trans Europe

Latin America

Northern America


World regions

Multi usage of methods

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Afri

ca

Asi

a

Aus

tralia

EU-1

5+

Euro

pe o

ther

Tran

s Eu

rope

Latin

Am

eric

a

N-A

mer

ica

Technology RoadmapsScenariosResearch and Other PrioritiesPolicy RecommendationsLists of Key TechnologiesForecastsAnalysis of Trends and Drivers

0,0

100,0

200,0

300,0

400,0

500,0

600,0

Afric

a

Asia

Aust

ralia

EU-1

5+

Euro

pe o

ther

Tran

s Eu

rope

Latin

Am

eric

a

North

ern

Amer

ica

Expert Panels

Questionnaire / Survey

Literature ReviewInterviews

Brainstorming

Trend Extrapolation

SWOT Analysis

Modelling & simulation

Megatrend Analysis

Scenarios

Key Technologies

Futures Workshops

Essays

Delphi

TRM

Outputs


World regions

Territorial scope

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Africa

Asia

Australia

EU-15+

Europe other

Trans Europe

Northern AmericaSub-national

National

Supra national

Transborder

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Sub-national National Supra national Transborder


Just another appetizer

Frequency of methods used

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Backcas

ting

Delphi

Essays

Futures

Works

hops

Key Tec

hnolo

gies

Scenari

os

Techno

logy R

oadmapp

ing

Environ

mental

Scanning

Megatre

nd Anal

ysis

Modelli

ng an

d simula

tion

SWOT Anal

ysis

Trend Extr

apola

tion

Brainst

orming

Expert

Panels

Interv

iews

Literatu

re Revi

ew

Questionn

aire /

Survey

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11



0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Busi

ness

Gov

ernm

ent

IGO

NG

Os

Oth

ersp

onso

rs

Res

earc

h


Literature Review

Interviews

Expert Panels

Brainstorming

Trend Extrapolation

SWOT Analysis

Modelling and simulation

Megatrend Analysis

Environmental Scanning

Technology Roadmapping

Scenarios

Key Technologies

Futures Workshops

Essays

Delphi

Sponsors



Methods used vs time horizon

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Technology Roadmapping

Delphi

Essays

Futures Workshops

Key Technologies

Scenarios

Megatrend Analysis

Modelling & simulation

SWOT Analysis

Trend Extrapolation

Interviews

Literature Review


Expert Panels

Brainstorming 2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2050


Further results

•Content perspective•Perspective of participation, audience and sponsors•Methodological perspective•Outlook perspective•Time horizon

EFMN Annual Mapping reportwww.efmn.eu


Concluding

•Rich source of information•But just a first start•More work to do on quality and quantity

Become a EFMN correspondent

Documents

Mapping foresight in Europe and the rest of the world