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MAP D-PHASE
• Forecast Demonstration Project• Instrument of WWRP • Last phase of MAP
Mathias Rotach, MeteoSwiss
What is an FDP?
WWRP instrument> Forecast of weather of international relevance
high-impact weather
> Clear evaluation protocols
> Expectation of success
> Clear advance in operational forecast. Proposal to WWRP
Components of MAP FDP
Forecast heavy precipitation events in the alps Include assimilation schemes (e.g., for radar
data) Coupling hydro/meteo models End-user specific products
develop and verify on MAP cases experience with operational MC-2 (3km resolution during MAP SOP)
Forecast Demonstration period
General Goals
Demonstrate ability for improved forecast of heavy precipitation in the alps
High-resolution atmospheric modelling ensemble forecast technique
Radar data (assimilation)
Hydrological modeling End users involved (end user needs, e.g.
probabilistic forecasts) Evaluation protocols (yet to be determined)
D-PHASE….
Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric
Simulation of Flooding Events in the Alps
D-PHASE essentials
Forecast (warning) chain for heavy precipitation events in the alps
Test in pre-defined ‘Forecast Period’ MAP season (Sept to November): 2006 (7?) extension to COPS (DFG field program on QNV in summer 07)?
Joint Target area: Lago Maggiore – various sub-areas
Strategy for D-PHASE
Atmosphere - Multi-component approach:
1. Local EPS systems (COSMO-LEPS, LAMEPS, PEPS,..) 3-5 days probabilistic forecast likelihood of ‘event’
Probability maps for 24 h precipitation
André Walser & COSMO-LEPS
Strategy for D-PHASE
Atmosphere - Multi-component approach:
1. Local EPS systems (COSMO-LEPS, LAMEPS, PEPS,..) 3-5 days probabilistic forecast likelihood of ‘event’
2. ‘standard’ deterministic models at high resolution (1-3km) short-range, targeted coupled hydrological models latest radar information assimilated
3. A possible ‘micro-LEPS’ made up as a poor man’s EPS from the above probabilistic information on hydrol. patterns.
Strategy for D-PHASE
Hydrosphere:
1. Hydrological models distributed coupled
2. Assimilation of latest information radar composites rain gauges
3. Probabilistic forcing from atmospheric models from radar (obs) uncertainty
Using COSMO-LEPS for hydrological forecasting
COSMO-LEPS Setup:
quasi-operational since November 2002
initial and boundary cond. from ECMWF EPS
Integration period: 120 h
Model: Lokal Modell (LM)
Grid-spacing: 10 km, 32 levels
Hydrological Model Setup:
Rhine upstream of Rheinfelden (34550 km2)
Model: PREVAH (Gurtz et al. 1999)
Driven by LM / COSMO-LEPS
A few test cases with 51 EPS members
AARE(Thun) ILL
(Gisingen)
Mark Verbunt, Christoph Schär ETH Zürich & COSMO-LEPS crew
Deterministic Runoff Forecast
observedrunoff
Ru
no
ff [
mm
/h]
Aare - Thun (2490 km2)
1970:~400 m3/s
1999:~570 m3/s
initialization
deterministic forecast
hydrological model driven bysurface observations
surface observations
simulated runoff
Mark Verbunt, Christoph Schär ETH Zürich & COSMO-LEPS crew
Deterministic versus Probabilistic Forecast
Ru
no
ff [
mm
/h]
AARE - Thun (2490 km2)
51 member LEPS forecast
hydrological model driven bysurface observations
surface observations
no precip
initialization
(Mark Verbunt, ETH Zürich)Mark Verbunt, Christoph Schär ETH Zürich & COSMO-LEPS crew
Deterministic versus Probabilistic Forecast
Ru
no
ff [
mm
/h]
ILL – Gisingen
51 member LEPS forecast
hydrological model driven bysurface observations
surface observations
initialization
Mark Verbunt, Christoph Schär ETH Zürich & COSMO-LEPS crew
Representative membersR
un
off
[m
m/h
]
5 EPS members (COSMO-LEPS clustering)
10 EPS members (COSMO-LEPS clustering)
51 EPS members
Ru
no
ff [
mm
/h]
Ru
no
ff [
mm
/h]
(Mark Verbunt, ETH Zürich)
ILL – Gisingen
Mark Verbunt, Christoph Schär ETH Zürich & COSMO-LEPS crew
Strategy for D-PHASE
End users:
1. Authorities civil protection river/lake management
2. THEIR needs thresholds cost/loss
--> end-to-end flood forecasting system
Event?Where?
yes
HI-ressimulation
Alert
Day -4
ECMWF EPS
LAMEPS
Day 0Latest obs.
Nowcasting
Latest obs.Latest obs.
Action
Tim
e
regionalLEPS(COSMO) LEPS
Days -3, -2, -1Sub-domain X
no
no
HI-ressimulationHI-res
simulationHI-res
simulationHI-res
simulation
Confir-mation
ECMWF EPS
LAMEPSregionalLEPS(COSMO) LEPS
HI-resLEPS
Hydrol. simulation
Contributions
Many (more than one..) LEPS SYSTEMS Many high-res (1-4km) deterministic models
--> most covering ‚the alps‘
Contributions
Many (more than one..) LEPS SYSTEMS Many high-res (1-4km) deterministic models
--> most covering ‚the alps‘ Many hydrol. Models
--> each for one (more) catchment
Contributions
Many (more than one..) LEPS SYSTEMS Many high-res (1-4km) deterministic models
--> most covering ‚the alps‘ Quite a few hydrol. Models
--> each for one (more) catchments End users: to be determined & involved
Time table
Evaluation etc. 2007 Demonstration period: Aug to Nov 2006 (Jun/Jul
desirable) Test chain ready summer 2006 High res. models tested: end 2005 Hydrol. Models tested: end 2005 Test cases defined: May 2005 Definition of user needs: May 2005 Set up of organisation end 2005 (done) Financial resources:
Start summer 2005application asap (dependent on
what/where/etc)
Proposal WWRP: spring 2005 Start: May 2004
Time
June to Nov 2007 ??
Thank you for your attention
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