Long Term Study Task Force Update ERCOT Long-Term Study Scenarios January 13, 2012

Long Term Study Task Force Update

ERCOT Long-Term Study Scenarios

January 13, 2012

Introduction

• The Long Term Study Task Force has been discussing scenarios since August, 2010.– Some potential scenarios were proposed by ERCOT staff.– Some were discussed in the context of a matrix of scenarios

developed with stakeholders input.

• We would like to focus on scenarios that are likely to display different transmission system needs

• Now is the time to finalize our scenario decisions, and we need your assistance.

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Current Scenarios and Status

• Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario– Resource Expansion (based on economic analysis) – DONE– Analysis of transmission needs for system reliability – DONE– Analysis of economic transmission projects – In Progress

• BAU with Production Tax Credit (PTC)– Resource Expansion (based on economic analysis) – First Cut

completed– We will not pursue further until we have new operational

reliability tools available• Draft RFP is discussed in another presentation today

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Extreme Drought Scenario

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• ERCOT is working with Sandia National Labs to develop a scenario that reflects the impact of a prolonged drought

• Sandia is anticipating having a final list of potential resources at risk by June 2012

• We are also working with Sandia to reflect impacts to system load from drought conditions in this scenario

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Renewable Resources Scenario

To bound the analysis of potential grid impacts from future resources, we would like to include a scenario with a significant build-out of renewable resources.•Expansion of renewable resources would likely result from:

– Continuation of Production Tax Credit– Higher natural gas prices

– National CO2 tax

– Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) (state or national)– or a combination of these or other factors.

•Thoughts/opinions? •ERCOT staff will incorporate stakeholder input, develop a proposal for this scenario and send to the LTSTF email list for comments.

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Additional Scenarios• ERCOT is working with the Demand-Side Working Group (DSWG)

and the Emerging Technologies Working Group (ETWG) to develop one or two scenarios with a significant build-out of other system resources, including:– Demand response

– Energy efficiency

– Distributed generation

– Energy storage (Compressed Air Energy Storage, pumped storage, batteries, etc.)

– If you want to participate in these scenario developments, please attend the next meetings of DSWG and ETWG (both on January 27)

• In addition to these scenarios, ERCOT will continue to work with stakeholders to develop sensitivities (changing one input assumption in any given scenario) for further analysis.

• ERCOT will work with transmission owners to develop sensitivities that will indicate potential costs and benefits of using emerging transmission technologies to meet system needs.

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QUESTIONS?

QUESTIONS/COMMENTS?

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