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© OECD/IEA 2018
International Energy Developments: Focus on the Eastern PartnershipPaul Simons, Deputy Executive Director, International Energy Agency
Eastern Partnership Business Forum
Vienna, 6 December 2018
IEA
© OECD/IEA 2018
Today’s energy context
Mixed signals about the pace & direction of change in global energy:
Oil markets are entering a period of renewed uncertainty & volatility
Natural gas is on the rise: China’s rapid demand growth is erasing talk of a ‘gas glut’
Solar PV has the momentum while other key technologies & efficiency policies need a push
Our assessment points to energy-related CO2 emissions reaching a historic high in 2018
For the first time, the global population without access to electricity fell below 1 billion
Electricity is carrying great expectations, but questions remain over the extent of its
reach in meeting demand & how the power systems of the future will operate
© OECD/IEA 2018
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The new geography of energy
Energy demand
In 2000, more than 40% of global demand was in Europe & North America and some20% in developing economies in Asia. By 2040, this situation is completely reversed.
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By 2040, this situation is completely reversed.
© OECD/IEA 2018
Oil
Advanced
economies
Developing
economies
Gas
Advanced
economies
Developing
economies
Fuelling the demand for energy
The increase in demand would be twice as large without continued improvementsin energy efficiency, a powerful tool to address energy security & sustainability concerns
Coal
Advanced
economies
Developing
economies
Change in global energy demand, 2017-2040
-600
-300
0
300
600
900
1 200
1 500Renewables &
nuclearMtoe
Advanced
economies
Developing
economies
Ren
ew
ab
les
Nuclear
Industry
Other
Power
Cars
Other
Petro-
chemical
Cars
Power
Other
Power
© OECD/IEA 2018
Global emissions are set to increase in 2018 - again
The world is not moving towards the Paris goals, but rather away from them
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2018 (TCEP): Historical data basis
CO2 emissions
Increase in 2017
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Gt CO2
© OECD/IEA 2018
Renewables and energy efficiency essential to sustainable future
A wide variety of technologies are necessary to meet goals,
with energy efficiency and renewables playing lead roles
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
16
20
24
28
32
36
2010 2020 2030 2040
Central Scenario
Sustainable
Development Scenario
Efficiency
Renewables
Fuel-switching
CCS
Other
Nuclear
44%
36%
2%6%9%2%
Gt CO2
2
© OECD/IEA 2018
Can we unlock a different energy future?
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
Coal plants make up one-third of CO2 emissions today and half are less than 15 years old; policies are needed to support CCUS, efficient operations and technology innovation
12
18
24
30
2017 2025 2030 2035 2040
Gt CO2 36
Sustainable
Development Scenario
Coal-fired power plants
Increased
room to
manoeuvre
6
New Policies Scenario
Existing and under constructionpower plants, factories, buildings etc.
© OECD/IEA 2018© OECD/IEA 2017
EU4Energy Programme Overview: 2016-2020
• Eastern Partnership
- Belarus
- Moldova
- Ukraine
- Armenia
- Azerbaijan
- Georgia
• Central Asia
- Kazakhstan
- Kyrgyzstan
- Tajikistan
- Turkmenistan
- Uzbekistan
1 Support the sound
development and
implementation of evidence-
based, medium-to-long-term
energy policies…
2 …based on improved use of
statistics
3…and sharing of best policy and
other practices and EU
experience in the Eastern
Partnership and Central Asia
11 Focus Countries
© OECD/IEA 2018© OECD/IEA 2017
IEA for EU4Energy by the numbers
222people trained by IEA for EU4Energy593
attendees at IEA for EU4Energy
events11
countries participating in the IEA
for EU4Energy
Programme
153statisticians
attended events
10 events combiningpolicy fora & training
lasting 2-5 days each
11topics covered
75participants per
fora
Average of
© OECD/IEA 2018
Comprehensive slate of policy events covering Energy Efficiency and Renewables
Astana: Energy Efficiency
and Renewables, June
2017
Odesa: Renewables
Policy
Recommendations and
Sustainable Transport,
March 2018
Tbilisi: Energy
Efficiency Training
Week, October 2017
Vienna:
Bioenergy, April
2018
Minsk: Grid Integration
of Variable Renewables,
November 2017
Kiev: Renewable
Heat, September
2017
NB: This map is without prejudice to the status of sovereignty
over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and
boundaries, and to the name of any territory, city or area.
Samarkand: Solar
Energy, Renewables
Policy
Recommendations,
October 2018
Moldova: Grid
Integration of Variable
Renewables, November
2018
© OECD/IEA 2018© OECD/IEA 2017
EU4Energy Renewables Events Directly Inform Deliverables
Events, discussions with country
delegations, and country expert work
leading to the October launch of the IEA’s
20 Renewable Energy Policy
Recommendations
These will also be used as a base for our
upcoming country roadmaps and In-
Depth Country Reviews in Year Four of
the Programme
© OECD/IEA 2018
Energy Efficiency: Virtuous circle between events and deliverables
By-Country
Energy
Efficiency One-
pagers
Energy
Efficiency Policy
Fora
By-country and by-
stream EE
Recommendations
IEA for EU4Energy deliverables both lead into and are a result of policy
fora…and are the basis for more in-depth work as the Programme continues
© OECD/IEA 2018© OECD/IEA 2017
• Cross-sectoral approach to energy efficiency captures holistic view, with
statistics underpinning each sector
• Inclusion of statistics strengthens policymaking across sectors
• Inception missions and the Tbilisi Energy Efficiency Training Week
introduce the sectoral themes, then
per-sector analytical approach
commences, with policy fora devoted
to each sector
A sectoral approach to Energy Efficiency
Buildings
Transport
IndustryLighting &
appliances
Statistics
© OECD/IEA 2018
Improved energy data dissemination: making energy statistics visible
From infographics created at the IEA…
Helping statisticians with national dissemination is key
….to infographics produced by statistical offices
http://www.belstat.gov.by/upload-belstat/upload-belstat-
excel/Oficial_statistika/year-ru-energy-2018-15.xlsxTranslated by statisticians in all national languages
http://www.belstat.gov.by/upload-belstat/upload-belstat-excel/Oficial_statistika/year-ru-energy-2018-15.xlsx
© OECD/IEA 2018
EU4Energy: Linking data & policy
Why :
• Helps raise the profile of statistics within
the country
• Find budget support
(for training events, for data collection)
• Requires adapting communication
How:
• National energy statistics working groups with data
producers and users exist in 9 countries now
• Media articles showing the use of data for policies
• Next: Evidence-based policies? Example: Armenia:
energy statistics will be used in building the
country’s energy strategy through 2036
© OECD/IEA 2018
Conclusions
• Renewables penetration – together with energy efficiency and other clean energy technologies - must accelerate in all sectors to meet long-term
sustainability goals.
• Even with ongoing cost reductions for renewables, government policy remains crucial to attract investment, ensure appropriate market design and reliable and
cost-effective system integration – but industry has an important role making
this investment , developing technology and spurring innovation
• Efficiency opportunities are cost-effective and use only technology available today, but require a significant step up in policy action
• IEA looks forward to strengthening its relationships with Eastern Partnership countries on renewables and efficiency through the EU4Energy project.
© OECD/IEA 2018
www.iea.orgIEA
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