9th International Forum OAPEC on Energy for …...9th International Forum on Energy for Sustainable Development 2 Kyiv, Ukraine, 12-15 November 2018 Agenda Developments of the Arab

OAPEC

The Contribution of Natural Gas to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Arab Countries Case

9th International Forum

on Energy for Sustainable Development

Gas Industries Expert

Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC)

9th International Forum on Energy for Sustainable DevelopmentKyiv, Ukraine, 12-15 November 20182

Agenda

Developments of the Arab Gas Sector: Upstream and Downstream

Growing Significance of Gas in the Arab Energy Sector

Contribution of Gas to Sustainable Energy Goals: Tracking Progress Towards SDG7

Gas and Renewables: Future Plans and Activities to Meet the Growing Demand on Energy

1

2

3

4


Proven Gas Reserves in the Arab Countries

28% Share of proven gas reserves in the Arab countries

1

01Distribution of the World’s TotalProven Gas Reserves, 2017

Source: OAPEC, Oil & Gas Journal, Cedigaz

North America6%

C& S. America

4%

Europe/Euroasia

33%

Asia Pacific8%

Other Middle

East21%

Arab

Countries28%

5.4%

Gross production

11.5 41

Added reserves

5.4% Annual growth rate of gas production in the Arab countries in 1990-2017

355% Compensation ratio of the cumulative gross gas production!

49%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 20162017

Reserves @ 2017

Reserves @ 1990

25.3 54.8

Unit: Trillion Cubic Meters (TCM)


LNG plant in full operationStopped LNG plant

LNG plant in partial operation

Gas Export Pipeline

AlgeriaEgyptLibya

UAE

Spain

Italy

Iran Syria

Jordan

Turkey

Iraq

Development of gas/LNG infrastructure and exports1

01Arab Countries invested billions of $ in export

infrastructure to deliver its gas to consumers

in Asia & Europe (20% of global gas trade)

Itay38%

Spain20%

Other Europe

5%

Intra-trade 37%

Piplines' Exports

03Arab region is second largest source

of gas exports through pipelines to

Europe behind Russia.

04Arab countries play a key global role to

provide efficient, cleaner & sustainable

energy source to its consumers

02Arab region is a major LNG supplier to

Asia and Europe and emerging markets

within the MENA region.

Asia63%

Europe27%

Americas2%MENA

8%

LNG Exports


100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

milliom toe/yBillion $

5

Coupling between economic growth and energy demand

GDP (2010 US$)

Primary energy consumption

ECONOMIC CAGR1990-2017

ENERGY DEMAND CAGR1990-2017

Economic growth is still coupled with the growing demand on energy (decoupling is a challenge)

2

Source: data compiled from world bank, OAPEC

Development of GDP (constant 2010 US$) & Primary Energy

Consumption in the Arab countries


The role of Oil & Gas sector in GDP2

O & G sector plays a key role in GDP in the Arab

countries. However, its share declined in the recent

years due to low oil price.

1

Such role makes O & G sector one of the key input to

Sustainable development in the Arab countries in

consistent with SDG 8

3

74% 72%66%

54%

40%43%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Oil & Gas Sector% in Public Revenues Oil & Gas Sector% in GDP

Source: economic statistical bulletin of Arab countries

O & G sector is the major part of public revenues and

helps to promote the economy in many Arab

countries

240% 41%

38%34%

22%19%

22%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Oil & Gas Sector% in GDPOil & Gas Sector% in Public Revenues


44%

53.1%

1.3%

2%

1990

Gas

Oil

Coal

Renewables

51%

2017

Gas

Oil

Coal

Renewables

Growing significance of Gas in the Arab Energy Sector: Primary Mix

Gas took market share away from oil where its share in the primary mix increased from

44% to 51% in 1990-2017

Although Renewables’ share in primary mix is declining (1.3% to 0.7%), it’s a good signal

of reduced dependence on biomass

2

44% 51%Source: OAPEC


2

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4

4.2

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

kg p

er k

g o

f o

il e

qu

ival

ent e

ner

gy u

se

Arab Countries World Linear (Arab Countries) Linear (World)

Source: data complied from world bank

Gas impact on CO2 intensity (kg Co2 per kg of oil equivalent energy use)

1CO2 intensity (kg CO2 per kg of oil equivalent energy use)

33% reduction

Increasing gas share in primary energy mix

effectively contributed to reduce CO2 intensity

from 4.2 to 2.8 kgCO2 per kg of oil equivalent

energy use in 1980-2014

1

Globally, CO2 intensity has been slightly rising

over the long term to reach 2.6 kgCO2 per kg of

oil equivalent energy use in 2014

2

2


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1990 2000 2005 2010 20162017*

Oil Oil Oil Oil Oil Oil

Gas

GasGas

Gas

Gas Gas

Renewables

Ele

ctri

city

Genera

tion,

TW

H

Renewables

Coal

Gas

Oil

Development of Electricity Generation, TWH

Contribution of Gas to Sustainable Energy : Tracking Progress in Power Sector3

Source: data complied from AUE, IEA & OAPEC

Oil27%

Gas68%

Coal2% Renewables

3%

5393

17

80

2007 2017

Construction of gas/ CCGT in the Arab countries, GW

Gas turbines CCGT

160 GW~ 60% of total

installed capacity

Electricity Generation Mix, 2017

Renewables have a share 5% of installed capacity & 3%

of generated electricity.1

Modernization and replacement of less efficient plants

are still ongoing2

3 Gas availability is the main factor behind power

sector expansion using CCGT


31%

36%

48%

68%

724

639

620

640

660

680

700

720

740

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

1990 2000 2005 2010 2017

Efficiency %

Gas Share%

Emissions (gCO2/KWH)

Contribution of Gas to Sustainable Energy : Tracking Progress in Power Sector

The impact of the expanded gas usage in the power sector on

1990 2016Source: Data compiled from WB, WEO 2017, Global Tracking Framework

Report 2018

Access Rate Access to Electricity, % of Arab Population

10

3

Lower Fuel Consumption-Average thermal efficiency

increased from 31% to 36%

efficiency

Source: data calculated from AUE, IEA & OAPEC

Gas share%

Better Air QualityGas produces fewer emissions

(ex. CO, PM, Nox, Sox,)

3 2 1

Lower CO2 Emissions per MWH-from 725 to 639 kgCO2/MWH

Emissions index


Contribution of Gas to Sustainbable Energy: Tracking Progress in Residential Sector

01Gas Penetration into the Residential Sector

in the Arab Countries, 1990-2017

3

55%25%

20%

Oil Products Gas Bio Fuels/Wastes

2017

Gas penetrated the residential sector and its share in fuel consumption is growing rapidly1

Meanwhile, the solid wastes share in fuel consumption is declining2

70%1%

30%

Oil Products Gas Bio Fuels/Wastes

1990

3a good indicator of providing modern energy services for all

Source: Global Tracking Framework Report 2018

Access Rate to Clean Fuels and Technologies for Cooking, % of Arab Population

2000

2016


Gas and Renewables: Forecasted Demand on Electricity

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

20112013

2017F2022F

2027F

87

7

967 1,3

17

1,6

31

2,1

46

Ele

ctri

city

Genera

tion,

TW

H

Electricity generation will climb by almost “6% per year” through to 2027

65% is the total increase in electricity generation by 2027

Such growth will require annual capacity additions of about 20 GW

Gas and Renewable Sources will play the main role to meet this demand growth

01Electricity Generation Outlook in the Arab

Countries, TWH

*F: Forecast

Source: AUE, 2016

4


Gas and Renewables: Current Activities and Plans

Gas development projects are expected to

come onstream in 2017-2022 at total

production capacity of 200 bcm/y (i.e.

35% of current gas production)

NATURAL GAS

22 Projects

Planned/ongoing Gas Development Projects in the Arab Countries

-Renewable energy projects under construction/planned.

RENEWABLE ENERGY

17 GW

130 GW-Total installed capacity of renewable energy sources according to announced targets

Source:RECREE

GW

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Alg

eri

a

Ba

hra

in

Djib

ou

ti

Egy

pt

Iraq

Jord

an

Ku

wa

it

Leb

an

on

Lib

ya

Ma

uri

t.

Mo

rocc

o

Qat

ar

KSA

Sud

an

Syri

a

Tu

nis

ia

UA

E

Om

an

Yem

en

R.E Targets

under construction R.E projects

4


Final Remarks

“Gas is and will continue to be a key component of the energy system in the Arab countries and a major contributor to attain SDGs (in particular SDG7 and SDG11). Its role is extended to be a key part, not only in the energy transition phase, but also in the sustainable energy future”.

“Although Renewable energy sources’ share is limited (in primary and final energy consumption), many Arab counties adopted ambitious targets to increase its share to reduce the great reliance placed on oil & gas and continue to be a major oil & gas supplier to the world”.

?


Questions?

67

8

121

2

5

9

10

11

4

3

Eng.Wael A.Moati

Gas Industries Expert, OAPEC

[email protected]

Documents

9th International Forum OAPEC on Energy for …...9th International Forum on Energy for Sustainable Development 2 Kyiv, Ukraine, 12-15 November 2018 Agenda Developments of the Arab