INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE...

Ch. Doulgeris1, D. Papadimos1 and J. Kapsomenakis2

27 – 28 March 2014

Filoxenia Conference Centre

Nicosia, Cyprus

INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCEAdaptToClimate

Assessing the impact of climate change on thehydroperiod of two Natura 2000 sites in Northern Greece

1 The Goulandris Natural History Museum, Greek Biotope/Wetland Centre2 Research Center of Atmospheric Physics and Climatology, Academy of Athens

Lake Cheimaditida

Lake Kerkini

Description of the study area

Description of the study area - Lake Cheimaditida

Lake’s surface : 10 km2

Max water level: 592 m a.m.s.l

Lake Cheimaditida

Lake Kerkini

Description of the study area - Lake Kerkini

Lake’s surface : 73.2 km2

Max water level: 35.8 m a.m.s.l

Description of the study area - Lake Kerkini

L. Kerkini

Strymonas River

Description of the study area - Lake Kerkini

Description of the study area - Lake Kerkini

100.000 ha arable land84.000 ha are irrigated54.400 are irrigated from Lake Kerkini & Strymonas River

The concept

Simulation of the lake’s water balance

Estimation of the lake’sWater volume

hypsographic curves

Lake’s Surface - Water Level

Historical climatic data

Future climatic data

Past & Present Future

Methods and Tools

Si+1 = Si + Qin + P – E – I – Qus - Qout

S : volume of water stored in the lake in time step i and i+1Qin : catchment runoff into the lake at time step i

P : precipitation on the lake’s surface in time step i

E : evaporation from the lake’s surface in time step i

Qus : water outflow from the lake to the users in time step i

Qout : water outflows downstream the lake in time step i

- Time step : monthly- The terms are expressed in m3

I : Infiltration from the lake’s bottom in time step i

Methods and Tools

Si+1 = Si + Qin + P – E – I – Qus - Qout

S : volume of water stored in the lake in time step i and i+1Qin : catchment runoff into the lake at time step i

P : precipitation on the lake’s surface in time step i

E : evaporation from the lake’s surface in time step i

Qus : water outflow from the lake to the users in time step i

Qout : water outflows downstream the lake in time step i

- Time step : monthly- The terms are expressed in m3

I : Infiltration from the lake’s bottom in time step i

Methods and Tools

For the simulation of rainfall – runoff in thelakes’ catchments

MIKE BASIN isa GIS tool suitable for water resources management and planning

MIKE BASIN (NAM)was applied in bothcatchments

NAM a module of MIKE BASIN isa deterministic, lumped hydrological model which represents variouscomponents of rainfall-runoff process

NAM hydrological models of the lakes’ catchments were calibrated on observed time series of the lakes’ water level

Methods and Tools

Si+1 = Si + Qin + P – E – I – Qus - Qout

S : volume of water stored in the lake in time step i and i+1Qin : catchment runoff into the lake at time step i

P : precipitation on the lake’s surface in time step i

E : evaporation from the lake’s surface in time step i

Qus : water outflow from the lake to the users in time step i

Qout : water outflows downstream the lake in time step i

- Time step : monthly- The terms are expressed in m3

I : Infiltration from the lake’s bottom in time step i

Available Data

Monthly values of Temperature & Precipitation

Cheimaditida’s catchment January 1979 - December 1998

Kerkini’s catchment January 2001 - December 2006

Historical climatic data

Available Data

Monthly values of Temperature & Precipitation

Emissions Scenarios A1B : 2020 – 2050A1B and A2 : 2070 - 2100

Were produced from the historical ones, which multiplied by theirexpected rates of change in the future due to climate change

Future climatic data

Expected rates of change of Rainfall and Temperature

Emissions Scenarios

Season Rainfall Rate of Change

(%)

TemperatureRate of change

(%)A1B

2020 - 2050Spring

-7.56

12.50Summer 9.73Autumn 13.50Winter 41.26

A1B2070 – 2100

Spring -16.90 29.96Summer 20.20Autumn 26.96Winder 89.66

A22070 - 2100

Spring -16.5 39.86Summer 26.63Autumn 37.53Winder 144.30

Climate Change Impacts Study Committee, 2011

Methods and Tools

Si+1 = Si + Qin + P – E – I – Qus - Qout

S : volume of water stored in the lake in time step i and i+1Qin : catchment runoff into the lake at time step i

P : precipitation on the lake’s surface in time step i

E : evaporation from the lake’s surface in time step i

Qus : water outflow from the lake to the users in time step i

Qout : water outflows downstream the lake in time step i

- Time step : monthly- The terms are expressed in m3

I : Infiltration from the lake’s bottom in time step i

Available Data

The method of Thornthwaite was used for Potential Evapotranspiration

&Evaporation

Infiltration from the lakes’ bottom was considered:

Cheimaditida 5.1 mm/year

The irrigation demands per hahave been estimated

Cheimaditida Kerkini 5.560 m3/year 11.247 m3/year

Results and Discussion

589.5

590

590.5

591

591.5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Noe Dec

Months

Wat

er le

vel a

.m.s

.l. (m

)

1979-1998Α1Β / 2020-2050

Α1Β / 2070-2100Α2 / 2070-2100

Mean monthly water level (WL) in Lake Cheimaditida

WLm = 591.2

WLm = 590.8 (-40 cm)

WLm = 590.45 (-75 cm)

WLm = 590.35 (-85 cm)

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Noe Dec

Months

Surfa

ce a

rea

(km

2 )

1979-1998

Α1Β / 2020-2050

Α1Β / 2070-2100

Α2 / 2070-2100

Results and Discussion

Mean monthly surface area (SA) of Lake Cheimaditida

SAm = 8.96 km2

SAm = 7.14 km2 (-20%)

SAm = 5.92 km2 (-34%)

SAm = 5.61 km2 (-37%)

Results and Discussion

Mean monthly catchment runoff x 106 (CR) into Lake Cheimaditida

CRm = 13.08 m3

CRm = 9.62 m3 (-26%)

CRm = 6.29 m3 (-52%)CRm = 6.03 m3 (-54%)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Noe Dec

Months

Dis

char

ge (m

3 /s)

1979-1998Α1Β / 2020-2050

Α1Β / 2070-2100Α2 / 2070-2100

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Noe Dec

Months

Wat

er le

vel a

.m.s

.l. (m

)

2001-2006

Α1Β / 2020-2050

Α1Β / 2070-2100

Α2 / 2070-2100

Results and Discussion

Mean monthly water level (WL) in Lake Kerkini

WLm = 32.6

WLm = 32.3 (-30 cm)

WLm = 31.9 (-70 cm)WLm = 31.8 (-80 cm)

30

40

50

60

70

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Noe Dec

Months

Surfa

ce a

rea

(km

2 )

2001-2006

Α1Β / 2020-2050

Α1Β / 2070-2100

Α2 / 2070-2100

Results and Discussion

Mean monthly surface area (SA) of Lake Kerkini

SAm = 55.44 km2

SAm = 52.88 km2 (-5%)

SAm = 48.9 km2 (-12%)

SAm = 47.7 km2 (-14%)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Noe Dec

Months

Dis

char

ge (m

3 /s)

1979-1998Α1Β / 2020-2050

Α1Β / 2070-2100Α2 / 2070-2100

Results and Discussion

Mean monthly catchment runoff x 106 (CR) into Lake Kerkini

CRm = 1563 m3

CRm = 1172 m3 (-25%)

CRm = 817 m3 (-48%)

CRm = 812 m3 (-48%)

Ch. Doulgeris1, D. Papadimos1 and J. Kapsomenakis2

27 – 28 March 2014

Filoxenia Conference Centre

Nicosia, Cyprus

INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCEAdaptToClimate

Assessing the impact of climate change on thehydroperiod of two Natura 2000 sites in Northern Greece

1 The Goulandris Natural History Museum, Greek Biotope/Wetland Centre2 Research Center of Atmospheric Physics and Climatology, Academy of Athens