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Ch. Doulgeris1, D. Papadimos1 and J. Kapsomenakis2
27 – 28 March 2014
Filoxenia Conference Centre
Nicosia, Cyprus
INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCEAdaptToClimate
Assessing the impact of climate change on thehydroperiod of two Natura 2000 sites in Northern Greece
1 The Goulandris Natural History Museum, Greek Biotope/Wetland Centre2 Research Center of Atmospheric Physics and Climatology, Academy of Athens
Lake Cheimaditida
Lake Kerkini
Description of the study area
Description of the study area - Lake Cheimaditida
Lake’s surface : 10 km2
Max water level: 592 m a.m.s.l
Lake Cheimaditida
Lake Kerkini
Description of the study area - Lake Kerkini
Lake’s surface : 73.2 km2
Max water level: 35.8 m a.m.s.l
Description of the study area - Lake Kerkini
L. Kerkini
Strymonas River
Description of the study area - Lake Kerkini
Description of the study area - Lake Kerkini
100.000 ha arable land84.000 ha are irrigated54.400 are irrigated from Lake Kerkini & Strymonas River
The concept
Simulation of the lake’s water balance
Estimation of the lake’sWater volume
hypsographic curves
Lake’s Surface - Water Level
Historical climatic data
Future climatic data
Past & Present Future
Methods and Tools
Si+1 = Si + Qin + P – E – I – Qus - Qout
S : volume of water stored in the lake in time step i and i+1Qin : catchment runoff into the lake at time step i
P : precipitation on the lake’s surface in time step i
E : evaporation from the lake’s surface in time step i
Qus : water outflow from the lake to the users in time step i
Qout : water outflows downstream the lake in time step i
- Time step : monthly- The terms are expressed in m3
I : Infiltration from the lake’s bottom in time step i
Methods and Tools
Si+1 = Si + Qin + P – E – I – Qus - Qout
S : volume of water stored in the lake in time step i and i+1Qin : catchment runoff into the lake at time step i
P : precipitation on the lake’s surface in time step i
E : evaporation from the lake’s surface in time step i
Qus : water outflow from the lake to the users in time step i
Qout : water outflows downstream the lake in time step i
- Time step : monthly- The terms are expressed in m3
I : Infiltration from the lake’s bottom in time step i
Methods and Tools
For the simulation of rainfall – runoff in thelakes’ catchments
MIKE BASIN isa GIS tool suitable for water resources management and planning
MIKE BASIN (NAM)was applied in bothcatchments
NAM a module of MIKE BASIN isa deterministic, lumped hydrological model which represents variouscomponents of rainfall-runoff process
NAM hydrological models of the lakes’ catchments were calibrated on observed time series of the lakes’ water level
Methods and Tools
Si+1 = Si + Qin + P – E – I – Qus - Qout
S : volume of water stored in the lake in time step i and i+1Qin : catchment runoff into the lake at time step i
P : precipitation on the lake’s surface in time step i
E : evaporation from the lake’s surface in time step i
Qus : water outflow from the lake to the users in time step i
Qout : water outflows downstream the lake in time step i
- Time step : monthly- The terms are expressed in m3
I : Infiltration from the lake’s bottom in time step i
Available Data
Monthly values of Temperature & Precipitation
Cheimaditida’s catchment January 1979 - December 1998
Kerkini’s catchment January 2001 - December 2006
Historical climatic data
Available Data
Monthly values of Temperature & Precipitation
Emissions Scenarios A1B : 2020 – 2050A1B and A2 : 2070 - 2100
Were produced from the historical ones, which multiplied by theirexpected rates of change in the future due to climate change
Future climatic data
Expected rates of change of Rainfall and Temperature
Emissions Scenarios
Season Rainfall Rate of Change
(%)
TemperatureRate of change
(%)A1B
2020 - 2050Spring
-7.56
12.50Summer 9.73Autumn 13.50Winter 41.26
A1B2070 – 2100
Spring -16.90 29.96Summer 20.20Autumn 26.96Winder 89.66
A22070 - 2100
Spring -16.5 39.86Summer 26.63Autumn 37.53Winder 144.30
Climate Change Impacts Study Committee, 2011
Methods and Tools
Si+1 = Si + Qin + P – E – I – Qus - Qout
S : volume of water stored in the lake in time step i and i+1Qin : catchment runoff into the lake at time step i
P : precipitation on the lake’s surface in time step i
E : evaporation from the lake’s surface in time step i
Qus : water outflow from the lake to the users in time step i
Qout : water outflows downstream the lake in time step i
- Time step : monthly- The terms are expressed in m3
I : Infiltration from the lake’s bottom in time step i
Available Data
The method of Thornthwaite was used for Potential Evapotranspiration
&Evaporation
Infiltration from the lakes’ bottom was considered:
Cheimaditida 5.1 mm/year
The irrigation demands per hahave been estimated
Cheimaditida Kerkini 5.560 m3/year 11.247 m3/year
Results and Discussion
589.5
590
590.5
591
591.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Noe Dec
Months
Wat
er le
vel a
.m.s
.l. (m
)
1979-1998Α1Β / 2020-2050
Α1Β / 2070-2100Α2 / 2070-2100
Mean monthly water level (WL) in Lake Cheimaditida
WLm = 591.2
WLm = 590.8 (-40 cm)
WLm = 590.45 (-75 cm)
WLm = 590.35 (-85 cm)
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Noe Dec
Months
Surfa
ce a
rea
(km
2 )
1979-1998
Α1Β / 2020-2050
Α1Β / 2070-2100
Α2 / 2070-2100
Results and Discussion
Mean monthly surface area (SA) of Lake Cheimaditida
SAm = 8.96 km2
SAm = 7.14 km2 (-20%)
SAm = 5.92 km2 (-34%)
SAm = 5.61 km2 (-37%)
Results and Discussion
Mean monthly catchment runoff x 106 (CR) into Lake Cheimaditida
CRm = 13.08 m3
CRm = 9.62 m3 (-26%)
CRm = 6.29 m3 (-52%)CRm = 6.03 m3 (-54%)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Noe Dec
Months
Dis
char
ge (m
3 /s)
1979-1998Α1Β / 2020-2050
Α1Β / 2070-2100Α2 / 2070-2100
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Noe Dec
Months
Wat
er le
vel a
.m.s
.l. (m
)
2001-2006
Α1Β / 2020-2050
Α1Β / 2070-2100
Α2 / 2070-2100
Results and Discussion
Mean monthly water level (WL) in Lake Kerkini
WLm = 32.6
WLm = 32.3 (-30 cm)
WLm = 31.9 (-70 cm)WLm = 31.8 (-80 cm)
30
40
50
60
70
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Noe Dec
Months
Surfa
ce a
rea
(km
2 )
2001-2006
Α1Β / 2020-2050
Α1Β / 2070-2100
Α2 / 2070-2100
Results and Discussion
Mean monthly surface area (SA) of Lake Kerkini
SAm = 55.44 km2
SAm = 52.88 km2 (-5%)
SAm = 48.9 km2 (-12%)
SAm = 47.7 km2 (-14%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Noe Dec
Months
Dis
char
ge (m
3 /s)
1979-1998Α1Β / 2020-2050
Α1Β / 2070-2100Α2 / 2070-2100
Results and Discussion
Mean monthly catchment runoff x 106 (CR) into Lake Kerkini
CRm = 1563 m3
CRm = 1172 m3 (-25%)
CRm = 817 m3 (-48%)
CRm = 812 m3 (-48%)
Ch. Doulgeris1, D. Papadimos1 and J. Kapsomenakis2
27 – 28 March 2014
Filoxenia Conference Centre
Nicosia, Cyprus
INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCEAdaptToClimate
Assessing the impact of climate change on thehydroperiod of two Natura 2000 sites in Northern Greece
1 The Goulandris Natural History Museum, Greek Biotope/Wetland Centre2 Research Center of Atmospheric Physics and Climatology, Academy of Athens
