GOTV UNIVERSES

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GOTV UNIVERSES

Mo MaraqaNew Organizing Institute

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OBJECTIVEToday’s presentation will cover building Get Out the Vote (GOTV) universes, building capacity and

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AGENDAIntroductionBasic TermsBuilding UniversesCapacity, Capacity, Capacity…Instituting a TimelineMaking AdjustmentsQ&A

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Pilar Weiss

TODAY’S PRESENTER

Civic Engagement DirectorNew Organizing Institute

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• GOTV - Get Out The Vote refers to activities organizations and campaigns take in the run up to an election to maximize the number supporters that turn out to vote.

• Universe - The set of voters you will attempt to turn out to vote on election day

• Modeling Scores -

SOME BASIC TERMS

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TARGETING MATRIXSupporters Persuadable Opposition

Always

Vote

Supporters that

Always Vote

Persuadablethat

Always Vote

Opposition that

Always VotesSometim

es Vote

Supporters that

Sometimes Vote

Opposition that

Sometimes Votes

Never

Vote

Supporters that

Never Vote

Persuadable that

Never Vote

Opposition that

Never Votes

Persuadable that

Sometimes Vote

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BUILDING SUPPORT

MODELING

PARTISANSHIP

DEMOGRAPHICS

SUPPORT SCORE

VOTE HISTORY

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THE VOTE DEFICIT

Base VotersVoters that probably vote for you no matter what

Vote DeficitOH NO! Turnout minus base voters = defeat.

PersuadablesVoters that do not fall into the “Base” or

“Opponent” camps

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THE CALCULUS• Traditional Method of Estimating

Turnout

• Apply turnout to current registration

• Increase Expected Vote Rate

Turnout + Turnout + TurnoutRegistration + Registration + Registration

= Turnout Rate

Turnout Rate x Current VAP = Expected Vote

Expected Vote x (increase) = Turnout for this Cycle

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• Organizational Capacity– Staffers– Volunteers– Growth Potential

• Contact Method– Phonebank or Canvassing– Contact Rate Assumptions– Shift Length

BUILDING CAPACITY

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9,000 15% 50,000

CONTACT CALCULUS

Contact Goal

Contact Rate

Attempts Goal

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TIMELINE

Initial GOTV Passes

Initial GOTV Passes

Additional GOTV Passes

Early Vote/ VBM

Election Day

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50,000 80 625

VOLUNTEER CALCULUS

Calling Goal Calls per Shift Shifts Goal

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MAKING ADJUSTMENTS

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