Global Warming Here at Home: How Lake Michigan is Faring · “GLOBAL WARMING HERE AT HOME:GLOBAL...

“GLOBAL WARMING HERE AT HOME:GLOBAL WARMING HERE AT HOME:HOW LAKE MICHIGAN IS FARING”

OUR CLIMATE MATTEROctober 20, 2007October 20, 2007

Glenview, IL

Derek Winstanley, D.Phil.ChiefChief

Illinois State Water Survey

AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments• Ken Kunkel, ISWSKen Kunkel, ISWS • Xin-Zhong Liang, ISWS• Jim Angel ISWS• Jim Angel, ISWS• Steve Hilberg, ISWS

L li E ISWS• Leslie Ensor, ISWS• Vern Knapp, ISWS• Al Wehrmann, ISWS• Doug Wilcox, USGS

OUTLINEOUTLINE

• Water cycle and water budgetsWater cycle and water budgets

Hi t i l li t d l k l l• Historical climate and lake level records

• Future climate and lake level changesg

GREAT LAKESGREAT LAKEShttp://tigger.uic.edu/~diane/GreatLakes1.jpg

THE WATER CYCLE:CLIMATE SURFACE WATER andCLIMATE, SURFACE WATER, and

GROUNDWATER ARE ALL LINKED

HISTORICAL CLIMATE CHANGES

Global WarmingS H dl C UKSource: Hadley Centre, UK

58.5

58.0

57.5

erat

ure

(F)

56.5

57.0

Tem

p

Global Average

56.01850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Annual Smoothed

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Illinois Temperature: Annual SmoothedpSource: Jim Angel, Illinois State Water Survey

56

54

52atur

e(F

)

50

52

Tem

pera

ILLINOIS

50

481850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Annual Temperature: Marengo (Jim Angel)Long Term Temperature Time Series

54

50

52

48

Marengo

44

46

42

40

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Illinois and Central USA Temperature Illinois and Central USA Temperature Changes Differ from Global TrendsChanges Differ from Global TrendsChanges Differ from Global TrendsChanges Differ from Global Trends

Ken Kunkel Ken Kunkel et al.et al.

)m

aly

(°C

)ur

e A

nom

empe

ratu

GlobalGlobalCentral USACentral USA

Te

Year

ANNUAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS

HISTORICAL VARIATIONSHISTORICAL VARIATIONS IN LAKE LEVEL

LAKE MICHIGAN/HURON LAKE LEVEL (USACE)LAKE LEVEL (USACE)

OCTOBEROCTOBERCurrent 577.0 ft

Long-term average 578.9 ftLong term average 578.9 ftSeasonal variation 1.3 ft

Lowest (1964) 576.4 ftHighest (1986) 582.3 ft

NOAA/GLERL

Great Lakes Annual Precipitation Departure

2

hes)

-4

-2

0recipitatio

n Dep

arture (inc

he

38 12

Mississippi River at Keokuk, IA

-61890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Year

Pre

33

34

35

36

37

on 10-year moving average (inches)

8

9

10

11

w, 10-year moving average (inches)

average watershed precipitation (3 gages)

streamflow at Keokuk

Mississippi River at Keokuk, IA

28

29

30

31

32

1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Annual Precipitation

4

5

6

7

Annual Streamflow,

r = 0.878

Great Lakes Annual Temperature Departure

1.5

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

empe

rature Dep

arture (°F)

-1.5

-1.0

1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Year

Tem

Great Lakes Annual Precipitation Departure

-2

0

2

nDeparture (inches)

-6

-4

1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Year

Precipitation

U.S. 1-day duration, 1-yr return1.4

1 1

1.2

1.3

Inde

x

0.9

1

1.1

cipi

tatio

n

0 6

0.7

0.8

Prec

0.61855 1875 1895 1915 1935 1955 1975 1995

Year

Increasing Floods in NE Illinois• Combination of increasing frequency of

heavy precipitation events andheavy precipitation events and urbanization of watersheds.

Great Lakes Ice CoverNOAA/GLERL

FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGES

Ken Kunkel et al.http://www sws uiuc edu/wsp/climate/ClimateTom scenarios asphttp://www.sws.uiuc.edu/wsp/climate/ClimateTom_scenarios.asp

Ken Kunkel et al.http://www.sws.uiuc.edu/wsp/climate/ClimateTom_scenarios.aspp p _ p

GLOBAL CLIMATE IS A COMPOSITE OF REGIONAL CLIMATESREGIONAL CLIMATES …..

… BUT GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS DO NOT DO A GOOD JOB AT SIMULATINGNOT DO A GOOD JOB AT SIMULATING REGIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANGES

CONCLUSIONS1. SHORT AND LONG-TERM CHANGES IN

CLIMATE AFFECT LAKE LEVELCLIMATE AFFECT LAKE LEVEL2. RECENT LOW LAKE LEVEL PROBABLY DUE

TO A COMBINATION OF LOW PRECIPITATION AND WARM TEMPERATURES

3. FUTURE CLIMATE AND LAKE LEVELS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN – POSSIBILITY OF MAJOR CHANGESMAJOR CHANGES

4. SWS DEVELOPING A NEW CRYSTAL BALL –A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL TOA REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL – TO PROVIDE A BETTER PLANNING TOOL

THANK YOUTHANK YOU

HAVE A NICE DAY!

http://www.sws.uiuc.edudwinstan@uiuc.edu

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