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“GLOBAL WARMING HERE AT HOME:GLOBAL WARMING HERE AT HOME:HOW LAKE MICHIGAN IS FARING”
OUR CLIMATE MATTEROctober 20, 2007October 20, 2007
Glenview, IL
Derek Winstanley, D.Phil.ChiefChief
Illinois State Water Survey
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments• Ken Kunkel, ISWSKen Kunkel, ISWS • Xin-Zhong Liang, ISWS• Jim Angel ISWS• Jim Angel, ISWS• Steve Hilberg, ISWS
L li E ISWS• Leslie Ensor, ISWS• Vern Knapp, ISWS• Al Wehrmann, ISWS• Doug Wilcox, USGS
OUTLINEOUTLINE
• Water cycle and water budgetsWater cycle and water budgets
Hi t i l li t d l k l l• Historical climate and lake level records
• Future climate and lake level changesg
GREAT LAKESGREAT LAKEShttp://tigger.uic.edu/~diane/GreatLakes1.jpg
THE WATER CYCLE:CLIMATE SURFACE WATER andCLIMATE, SURFACE WATER, and
GROUNDWATER ARE ALL LINKED
HISTORICAL CLIMATE CHANGES
Global WarmingS H dl C UKSource: Hadley Centre, UK
58.5
58.0
57.5
erat
ure
(F)
56.5
57.0
Tem
p
Global Average
56.01850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Annual Smoothed
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Illinois Temperature: Annual SmoothedpSource: Jim Angel, Illinois State Water Survey
56
54
52atur
e(F
)
50
52
Tem
pera
ILLINOIS
50
481850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Annual Temperature: Marengo (Jim Angel)Long Term Temperature Time Series
54
50
52
48
Marengo
44
46
42
40
1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Illinois and Central USA Temperature Illinois and Central USA Temperature Changes Differ from Global TrendsChanges Differ from Global TrendsChanges Differ from Global TrendsChanges Differ from Global Trends
Ken Kunkel Ken Kunkel et al.et al.
)m
aly
(°C
)ur
e A
nom
empe
ratu
GlobalGlobalCentral USACentral USA
Te
Year
ANNUAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS
HISTORICAL VARIATIONSHISTORICAL VARIATIONS IN LAKE LEVEL
LAKE MICHIGAN/HURON LAKE LEVEL (USACE)LAKE LEVEL (USACE)
OCTOBEROCTOBERCurrent 577.0 ft
Long-term average 578.9 ftLong term average 578.9 ftSeasonal variation 1.3 ft
Lowest (1964) 576.4 ftHighest (1986) 582.3 ft
NOAA/GLERL
Great Lakes Annual Precipitation Departure
2
hes)
-4
-2
0recipitatio
n Dep
arture (inc
he
38 12
Mississippi River at Keokuk, IA
-61890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Year
Pre
33
34
35
36
37
on 10-year moving average (inches)
8
9
10
11
w, 10-year moving average (inches)
average watershed precipitation (3 gages)
streamflow at Keokuk
Mississippi River at Keokuk, IA
28
29
30
31
32
1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Annual Precipitation
4
5
6
7
Annual Streamflow,
r = 0.878
Great Lakes Annual Temperature Departure
1.5
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
empe
rature Dep
arture (°F)
-1.5
-1.0
1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Year
Tem
Great Lakes Annual Precipitation Departure
-2
0
2
nDeparture (inches)
-6
-4
1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Year
Precipitation
U.S. 1-day duration, 1-yr return1.4
1 1
1.2
1.3
Inde
x
0.9
1
1.1
cipi
tatio
n
0 6
0.7
0.8
Prec
0.61855 1875 1895 1915 1935 1955 1975 1995
Year
Increasing Floods in NE Illinois• Combination of increasing frequency of
heavy precipitation events andheavy precipitation events and urbanization of watersheds.
Great Lakes Ice CoverNOAA/GLERL
FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGES
Ken Kunkel et al.http://www sws uiuc edu/wsp/climate/ClimateTom scenarios asphttp://www.sws.uiuc.edu/wsp/climate/ClimateTom_scenarios.asp
Ken Kunkel et al.http://www.sws.uiuc.edu/wsp/climate/ClimateTom_scenarios.aspp p _ p
GLOBAL CLIMATE IS A COMPOSITE OF REGIONAL CLIMATESREGIONAL CLIMATES …..
… BUT GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS DO NOT DO A GOOD JOB AT SIMULATINGNOT DO A GOOD JOB AT SIMULATING REGIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANGES
CONCLUSIONS1. SHORT AND LONG-TERM CHANGES IN
CLIMATE AFFECT LAKE LEVELCLIMATE AFFECT LAKE LEVEL2. RECENT LOW LAKE LEVEL PROBABLY DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF LOW PRECIPITATION AND WARM TEMPERATURES
3. FUTURE CLIMATE AND LAKE LEVELS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN – POSSIBILITY OF MAJOR CHANGESMAJOR CHANGES
4. SWS DEVELOPING A NEW CRYSTAL BALL –A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL TOA REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL – TO PROVIDE A BETTER PLANNING TOOL
