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Rui Pinho Secretary General, GEM Foundation
Global Earthquake
Model: Calculating and Communicating
Earthquake Risk
Assess and monitor risk globally, especially in less well served regions, and following a uniform approach
Raise risk awareness
Stimulate risk mitigation
Save lives, reduce losses and distribute the financial burden better
The common goal is the reduction of earthquake risk worldwide, by converting knowledge into action..
GOALS
Dynamic: an (updatable) model, not a map
Global: cover also less developed/monitored areas (uniform standards)
Open Access: a (transparent) tool to use for everybody
Public-Private Partnership: combining the strengths (and objectives) of both sectors
An internationally sanctioned program initiated by the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development), aiming to build an independent, open standard to calculate and communicate earthquake risk around the world
MAIN FEATURES
PUBLIC FOUNDERS
GERMANY GFZ Helmholtz Centre Potsdam
ITALY Department of civil protection
SINGAPORE Nanyang Technoligical University
SWITZERLAND Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich
TURKEY Bogazici University
BELGIUM Belgium Science Policy
Private Founders: 11.6 Mill. € Munich Re, Zurich Financial Services, AIR Worldwide, Willis, EUCENTRE
Public Founders: 3.4 Mill. € Italy, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium, Turkey, Singapore
Regional Programmes: 5.4 Mill. € Not under direct control, but tightly coordinated with GEM
Secretariat Facilities: 2.4 Mill. € Eucentre in-kind contribution
PRESENT FUNDING
FOUNDING ASSOCIATE PARTICIPANTS
OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
THE WORLD BANK Disaster Risk Management Group
UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
IASPEI International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior
IAEE International Association of Earthquake Engineering
A non-profit foundation (GEM Foundation) incorporated on 9 March 2009
Future aim is to create an Intergovernmental Organisation (IGO) Higher outreach and leverage Long-term structuring and integration objectives
LEGAL ENTITY
Title and Location Objectives and Activities of GEM Founders and Participants Assets and Financial Resources Duration Organisation Governing Board, Scientific Board, Executive Committee, Board of Auditors, Secretary General, Scientific and Administrative Secretariat Adhesion of Countries to GEM Amendment of the Statute Rules and Regulations Termination of the Foundation Creation of an IGO
STATUTE
1. Expert elicitation and community participation
2. Regional programmes and national participation
3. Global components
4. GEM1
5. Co-operation with international agencies
START-UP OPERATIVE ACTIVITIES
Cover whole regions and all countries in each region Independently funded, bottom-up initiatives Nation-to-nation and regional partnerships “Approved” by GEM Adopt GEM standards and computational infrastructure Contribute regional and national data to global models Contribute to build the GEM global components
REGIONAL PROGRAMMES
EMME: Earthquake Model for the Middle East, on-going SHARE: Seismic Hazard Harmonization for Europe, on-going GEM implementation in Central Asia, under discussion GEM implementation in South Asia, under discussion GEM implementation in South America, under discussion GEM implementation in SE Asia, under discussion GEM implementation in NE Asia, under discussion GEM implementation in Africa, under discussion
ACTIVE OR PLANNED RPs
5 RfPs released in mid-May 2009 (submission mid-July) Currently under peer-review Selection by end-October and start 2010 Integration with regional programmes
Global Historical Catalogue and Database Global Instrumental Seismic Catalogue Global Active Fault and Seismic Source Database Global Geodetic Strain Rate Model Global Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs)
HAZARD GCs
First topic list for RfPs under preparation First dedicated meeting took place in Cambridge Scoping meeting took place in September Expert elicitation on draft RfPs through online commenting to be
implemented October - November 2009 RfPs expected by end 2009
Global Ontology and Taxonomy Global Consequences Database Global Exposure Database Global Inventory Data Capture Tools Global Vulnerability Functions
VULNERABILITY/RISK GCs
First kick-off workshop, organised in collaboration with UNU-EHS, held in Munich
Brainstorming dedicated meeting, organised by OECD and World Bank took place mid-september
Multidisciplinary working group drafting roadmap to be ready December 2009
Refined strategy and RfPs to be developed in early 2010
SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT GCs
GEM1 is a focused pilot project to generate GEM’s first products and develop GEM’s initial IT infrastructure
GEM1 will provide core capabilities for the present and key knowledge for future development of the full GEM computing environment and product set
The lessons learned during GEM1 will be an integral part of future GEM development
GEM1
Budget 1.8M Euro Start: Jan. 1, 2009 - End: March 31, 2010 14 positions of full time staff, plus senior staff 5 Core institutions, numerous subcontracts
GEM1 IN NUMBERS
GEM1 is collecting a worldwide ‘inventory’ of the existing hazard and risk models, software and data. We will have a preliminary global hazard map and first risk applications.
Important focus on the IT framework, the data models, the data exchange formats etc; fundamental for subsequent GEM activities and developments.
GEM1 includes furthermore a user-need assessment and validation and testing activities.
GOALS OF GEM1
Deliver a final, authoritative hazard & risk model
Create a hazard & risk software for general use
Have a web interface that allows the public to browse hazard & risk results
Perform seismic hazard or risk code cross-validation experiments
Work extensively on economic impact
GEM1 WILL NOT
Business Plan
Updated version currently being finalised
Once approved (end September), it will be widely disseminated
FURTHER INFORMATION
Enhance national participation in GEM; on-going discussions with US, China, Japan, India, Australia, New Zealand, Nepal, Bangladesh, France, Portugal and Luxembourg
Finalise global components programmes for risk and socio-economic impact
Define and kick-start regional programmes for “missing regions” Continue progress within GEM1 Continue dissemination and outreach activities
Increase the community of GEM believers and supporters…
IMMEDIATE FUTURE ACTIONS
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