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Rui Pinho Secretary General, GEM Foundation Global Earthquake Model: Calculating and Communicating Earthquake Risk

Global Earthquake Model - OECD · earthquake risk around the world ... Global Ground-Motion Prediction Equations ... India, Australia, New Zealand, Nepal, Bangladesh, France,

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Rui Pinho Secretary General, GEM Foundation

Global Earthquake

Model: Calculating and Communicating

Earthquake Risk

  Assess and monitor risk globally, especially in less well served regions, and following a uniform approach

  Raise risk awareness

  Stimulate risk mitigation

  Save lives, reduce losses and distribute the financial burden better

The common goal is the reduction of earthquake risk worldwide, by converting knowledge into action..

GOALS

  Dynamic: an (updatable) model, not a map

  Global: cover also less developed/monitored areas (uniform standards)

  Open Access: a (transparent) tool to use for everybody

  Public-Private Partnership: combining the strengths (and objectives) of both sectors

An internationally sanctioned program initiated by the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development), aiming to build an independent, open standard to calculate and communicate earthquake risk around the world

MAIN FEATURES

PUBLIC FOUNDERS

GERMANY GFZ Helmholtz Centre Potsdam

ITALY Department of civil protection

SINGAPORE Nanyang Technoligical University

SWITZERLAND Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich

TURKEY Bogazici University

BELGIUM Belgium Science Policy

COUNTRY’S CONTRIBUTION

PRIVATE FOUNDERS

5 Mill. €

3 Mill. €

1 Mill. €

1 Mill. €

1.6 Mill. €

FIVE YEAR BUILD-UP FUNDING PLAN

Private Founders: 11.6 Mill. € Munich Re, Zurich Financial Services, AIR Worldwide, Willis, EUCENTRE

Public Founders: 3.4 Mill. € Italy, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium, Turkey, Singapore

Regional Programmes: 5.4 Mill. € Not under direct control, but tightly coordinated with GEM

Secretariat Facilities: 2.4 Mill. € Eucentre in-kind contribution

PRESENT FUNDING

FOUNDING ASSOCIATE PARTICIPANTS

OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

THE WORLD BANK Disaster Risk Management Group

UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization

IASPEI International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior

IAEE International Association of Earthquake Engineering

A non-profit foundation (GEM Foundation) incorporated on 9 March 2009

Future aim is to create an Intergovernmental Organisation (IGO) Higher outreach and leverage Long-term structuring and integration objectives

LEGAL ENTITY

  Title and Location   Objectives and Activities of GEM   Founders and Participants   Assets and Financial Resources   Duration   Organisation   Governing Board, Scientific Board, Executive Committee, Board of Auditors, Secretary General, Scientific and Administrative Secretariat   Adhesion of Countries to GEM   Amendment of the Statute   Rules and Regulations   Termination of the Foundation   Creation of an IGO

STATUTE

ORGANISATION & STRUCTURE

1.  Expert elicitation and community participation

2.  Regional programmes and national participation

3.  Global components

4.  GEM1

5.  Co-operation with international agencies

START-UP OPERATIVE ACTIVITIES

Global Meetings:

engaging the community

START-UP OPERATIVE ACTIVITIES

  Cover whole regions and all countries in each region   Independently funded, bottom-up initiatives   Nation-to-nation and regional partnerships   “Approved” by GEM   Adopt GEM standards and computational infrastructure   Contribute regional and national data to global models   Contribute to build the GEM global components

REGIONAL PROGRAMMES

  EMME: Earthquake Model for the Middle East, on-going   SHARE: Seismic Hazard Harmonization for Europe, on-going   GEM implementation in Central Asia, under discussion   GEM implementation in South Asia, under discussion   GEM implementation in South America, under discussion   GEM implementation in SE Asia, under discussion   GEM implementation in NE Asia, under discussion   GEM implementation in Africa, under discussion

ACTIVE OR PLANNED RPs

RPs REGIONAL OVERVIEW

GLOBAL COMPONENTS

  5 RfPs released in mid-May 2009 (submission mid-July)   Currently under peer-review   Selection by end-October and start 2010   Integration with regional programmes

Global Historical Catalogue and Database Global Instrumental Seismic Catalogue Global Active Fault and Seismic Source Database Global Geodetic Strain Rate Model Global Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs)

HAZARD GCs

  First topic list for RfPs under preparation   First dedicated meeting took place in Cambridge   Scoping meeting took place in September   Expert elicitation on draft RfPs through online commenting to be

implemented October - November 2009   RfPs expected by end 2009

Global Ontology and Taxonomy Global Consequences Database Global Exposure Database Global Inventory Data Capture Tools Global Vulnerability Functions

VULNERABILITY/RISK GCs

  First kick-off workshop, organised in collaboration with UNU-EHS, held in Munich

  Brainstorming dedicated meeting, organised by OECD and World Bank took place mid-september

  Multidisciplinary working group drafting roadmap to be ready December 2009

  Refined strategy and RfPs to be developed in early 2010

SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT GCs

  GEM1 is a focused pilot project to generate GEM’s first products and develop GEM’s initial IT infrastructure

  GEM1 will provide core capabilities for the present and key knowledge for future development of the full GEM computing environment and product set

  The lessons learned during GEM1 will be an integral part of future GEM development

GEM1

  Budget 1.8M Euro   Start: Jan. 1, 2009 - End: March 31, 2010   14 positions of full time staff, plus senior staff   5 Core institutions, numerous subcontracts

GEM1 IN NUMBERS

  GEM1 is collecting a worldwide ‘inventory’ of the existing hazard and risk models, software and data. We will have a preliminary global hazard map and first risk applications.

  Important focus on the IT framework, the data models, the data exchange formats etc; fundamental for subsequent GEM activities and developments.

  GEM1 includes furthermore a user-need assessment and validation and testing activities.

GOALS OF GEM1

  Deliver a final, authoritative hazard & risk model

  Create a hazard & risk software for general use

  Have a web interface that allows the public to browse hazard & risk results

  Perform seismic hazard or risk code cross-validation experiments

  Work extensively on economic impact

GEM1 WILL NOT

www.globalquakemodel.org

FURTHER INFORMATION

Business Plan

  Updated version currently being finalised

  Once approved (end September), it will be widely disseminated

FURTHER INFORMATION

  Enhance national participation in GEM; on-going discussions with US, China, Japan, India, Australia, New Zealand, Nepal, Bangladesh, France, Portugal and Luxembourg

  Finalise global components programmes for risk and socio-economic impact

  Define and kick-start regional programmes for “missing regions”   Continue progress within GEM1   Continue dissemination and outreach activities

  Increase the community of GEM believers and supporters…

IMMEDIATE FUTURE ACTIONS