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Future Hype:The Myths of Technology
Change
Hi thereHi there
Technology ChangeIncreases Exponentially
“I was born in the middle of human history.… Almost as much has happened since I was born as happened before.”
— Kenneth Boulding, quoted in Future Shock (1970)
High Tech Myth #1
Technology ChangeIncreases Exponentially
AirplaneAirplane
RailroadRailroad
TelephoneTelephoneElectricityElectricity
Car, TruckCar, Truck
SkyscraperSkyscraper
BooksBooks
PC + WebPC + Web
Technology ChangeIncreases Exponentially
“… America is addicted to oil.”
— Pres. Bush, State of the Union address, 1/31/06
“… America is addicted to oil.”
— Pres. Bush, State of the Union address, 1/31/06
America is addicted to fossil fuel
Fuel cell 1839Fuel cell 1839
Solar cell 1850sSolar cell 1850s
Battery 1799Battery 1799
Lead-acidLead-acidbattery 1859battery 1859
IncandescentIncandescentbulb 1880bulb 1880
First 60mph car (electric) 1899First 60mph car (electric) 1899
Technology ChangeIncreases ExponentiallyBUSTED
Technology is changingTechnology is changingno faster todayno faster today
than it has since thethan it has since theIndustrial RevolutionIndustrial Revolution
Technology isInevitableHigh Tech Myth #2
“You’re either part of the steamrolleror part of the road.”
— Stuart Brand, author
Technology isInevitable
Technology isInevitable
Technology isInevitable
TV? 3D TV!TV? 3D TV!
Weather prediction?Weather prediction?Weather control!Weather control!
Telephone? Videophone!Telephone? Videophone!
Technology isInevitable
TV? 3D TV!
Weather prediction?Weather control!
Telephone? Videophone!
Home robotsHome robots
EbooksEbooks
Moon basesMoon bases
Self-driving carsSelf-driving cars
Paperless officesPaperless offices
NuclearNucleareverythingeverythingMovingMoving
sidewalkssidewalks
IrradiatedIrradiatedfoodfood
Paper clothesPaper clothes
RotaryRotaryengineengine
FreezeFreezedryingdrying
SmartSmartcardscards
FaxFaxnewspapersnewspapers
MHDMHD
55thth generation generationcomputerscomputers
ArtificialArtificialintelligenceintelligence
MetricMetric
Technology isInevitableBUSTED
The next The next shiny new technologyshiny new technology
is is notnot inevitable inevitable
“When you get the urge to predict the future,better lie down until the feeling goes away.”
— Forbes, 1978
“It must be obvious to anyone with any senseof history and any awareness of human naturethat there will be SSTs.And Super SSTs. And Super-Super SSTs.Mankind is simply not going to sit backwith the Boeing 747 and say,‘This is as far as we go.’”
— Spiro Agnew, US Vice President, 1972
This is not anThis is not anacademic issueacademic issue
Today’s TechnologyEclipses All
“[The Internet is] the most transforming technological eventsince the capture of fire.I used to think it was just the biggest thing since Gutenberg,but now I think you have to go back farther.”
— John Perry Barlow,an Electronic Frontier Foundation founder (1995)
High Tech Myth #3
Today’s TechnologyEclipses All
The Internet’sThe Internet’simportant applications important applications
aren’t newaren’t newand the new ones and the new ones aren’t importantaren’t important
Today’s TechnologyEclipses All
Ecommerce:Ecommerce:$70 billion in 2004$70 billion in 2004
$70 billion
Today’s TechnologyEclipses All
Ecommerce:Ecommerce:$70 billion in 2004$70 billion in 2004
Non-store sales $350 billion
Today’s TechnologyEclipses All
Ecommerce:Ecommerce:$70 billion in 2004$70 billion in 2004
Retail sales $3.6 trillion
Today’s TechnologyEclipses All
catalogscatalogsphone, mailphone, mail
libraries, encyclopediaslibraries, encyclopedias
fast printing pressesfast printing presses
Today’s TechnologyEclipses All
“The Internet changes everything.”
— director at Hambrecht & Quist, 1995
Space travel changes everything (’60s)
Nuclear power changes everything (’50s)
Today’s TechnologyEclipses All
1815: Battle of New Orleans1815: Battle of New Orleans1844: Morse telegraph1844: Morse telegraph1860: 100K miles of line1860: 100K miles of line1866: transatlantic cable1866: transatlantic cable
Today’s TechnologyEclipses All
Moore’s LawMoore’s Lawis amazing,is amazing,
but it’s but it’s onlyonly amazing amazing
Today’s TechnologyEclipses All
Cost changes 1981–2006:Cost changes 1981–2006: • • computing power: 0.02%computing power: 0.02% •• PC: 25%PC: 25%
Today’s TechnologyEclipses All
What benefit to a 100× faster PC?What benefit to a 100× faster PC?
Contrast with a truckContrast with a truck
Construction equipmentConstruction equipment Farming equipmentFarming equipment Factory machinesFactory machines … …
Today’s TechnologyEclipses AllBUSTED
The PC and InternetThe PC and Internetare valuable new technologies,are valuable new technologies,
but no more so thanbut no more so thanany other major technologyany other major technology
since the Industrial Revolutionsince the Industrial Revolution
Technology’sHidden Costs
Laptop costs:Laptop costs: • • $500 per year?$500 per year? •• No: $5000 per year! No: $5000 per year! (Gartner)(Gartner)
MaintenanceMaintenance Software upgradesSoftware upgradesDowntimeDowntime TrainingTrainingUser supportUser support Tweaking: $100B/yearTweaking: $100B/year
Technology’sHidden Costs
How much do businesses worldwideHow much do businesses worldwidespend on Information Technology?spend on Information Technology?
$2,700,000,000,000every year!every year!
Technology’sHidden Costs
The Wild, Wild InternetThe Wild, Wild Internet
>50% of email is spam>50% of email is spam SpywareSpyware
ScamsScamsViruses cost $50 billion/yearViruses cost $50 billion/year
Spam costs $22 billion/yearSpam costs $22 billion/year
Personal web surfing costs $300 billion/yearPersonal web surfing costs $300 billion/year
MisinformationMisinformation
Technology’sHidden Costs
StressStress
HappinessHappiness
Guidelines for theTechnology Consumer
1. Be Skeptical1. Be Skeptical
2. Beware Predictions2. Beware Predictions
3. Permission Slip3. Permission Slip
4. Debate4. Debate
5. Relax!5. Relax!
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