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Future Hype:The Myths of Technology

Change

Hi thereHi there

Technology ChangeIncreases Exponentially

“I was born in the middle of human history.… Almost as much has happened since I was born as happened before.”

— Kenneth Boulding, quoted in Future Shock (1970)

High Tech Myth #1


AirplaneAirplane

RailroadRailroad

TelephoneTelephoneElectricityElectricity

Car, TruckCar, Truck

SkyscraperSkyscraper

BooksBooks

PC + WebPC + Web


“… America is addicted to oil.”

— Pres. Bush, State of the Union address, 1/31/06

“… America is addicted to oil.”

— Pres. Bush, State of the Union address, 1/31/06

America is addicted to fossil fuel

Fuel cell 1839Fuel cell 1839

Solar cell 1850sSolar cell 1850s

Battery 1799Battery 1799

Lead-acidLead-acidbattery 1859battery 1859

IncandescentIncandescentbulb 1880bulb 1880

First 60mph car (electric) 1899First 60mph car (electric) 1899

Technology ChangeIncreases ExponentiallyBUSTED

Technology is changingTechnology is changingno faster todayno faster today

than it has since thethan it has since theIndustrial RevolutionIndustrial Revolution

Technology isInevitableHigh Tech Myth #2

“You’re either part of the steamrolleror part of the road.”

— Stuart Brand, author

Technology isInevitable



TV? 3D TV!TV? 3D TV!

Weather prediction?Weather prediction?Weather control!Weather control!

Telephone? Videophone!Telephone? Videophone!


TV? 3D TV!

Weather prediction?Weather control!

Telephone? Videophone!

Home robotsHome robots

EbooksEbooks

Moon basesMoon bases

Self-driving carsSelf-driving cars

Paperless officesPaperless offices

NuclearNucleareverythingeverythingMovingMoving

sidewalkssidewalks

IrradiatedIrradiatedfoodfood

Paper clothesPaper clothes

RotaryRotaryengineengine

FreezeFreezedryingdrying

SmartSmartcardscards

FaxFaxnewspapersnewspapers

MHDMHD

55thth generation generationcomputerscomputers

ArtificialArtificialintelligenceintelligence

MetricMetric

Technology isInevitableBUSTED

The next The next shiny new technologyshiny new technology

is is notnot inevitable inevitable

“When you get the urge to predict the future,better lie down until the feeling goes away.”

— Forbes, 1978

“It must be obvious to anyone with any senseof history and any awareness of human naturethat there will be SSTs.And Super SSTs. And Super-Super SSTs.Mankind is simply not going to sit backwith the Boeing 747 and say,‘This is as far as we go.’”

— Spiro Agnew, US Vice President, 1972

This is not anThis is not anacademic issueacademic issue

Today’s TechnologyEclipses All

“[The Internet is] the most transforming technological eventsince the capture of fire.I used to think it was just the biggest thing since Gutenberg,but now I think you have to go back farther.”

— John Perry Barlow,an Electronic Frontier Foundation founder (1995)

High Tech Myth #3


The Internet’sThe Internet’simportant applications important applications

aren’t newaren’t newand the new ones and the new ones aren’t importantaren’t important


Ecommerce:Ecommerce:$70 billion in 2004$70 billion in 2004

$70 billion



Non-store sales $350 billion



Retail sales $3.6 trillion


catalogscatalogsphone, mailphone, mail

libraries, encyclopediaslibraries, encyclopedias

fast printing pressesfast printing presses


“The Internet changes everything.”

— director at Hambrecht & Quist, 1995

Space travel changes everything (’60s)

Nuclear power changes everything (’50s)


1815: Battle of New Orleans1815: Battle of New Orleans1844: Morse telegraph1844: Morse telegraph1860: 100K miles of line1860: 100K miles of line1866: transatlantic cable1866: transatlantic cable


Moore’s LawMoore’s Lawis amazing,is amazing,

but it’s but it’s onlyonly amazing amazing


Cost changes 1981–2006:Cost changes 1981–2006: • • computing power: 0.02%computing power: 0.02% •• PC: 25%PC: 25%


What benefit to a 100× faster PC?What benefit to a 100× faster PC?

Contrast with a truckContrast with a truck

Construction equipmentConstruction equipment Farming equipmentFarming equipment Factory machinesFactory machines … …

Today’s TechnologyEclipses AllBUSTED

The PC and InternetThe PC and Internetare valuable new technologies,are valuable new technologies,

but no more so thanbut no more so thanany other major technologyany other major technology

since the Industrial Revolutionsince the Industrial Revolution

Technology’sHidden Costs

Laptop costs:Laptop costs: • • $500 per year?$500 per year? •• No: $5000 per year! No: $5000 per year! (Gartner)(Gartner)

MaintenanceMaintenance Software upgradesSoftware upgradesDowntimeDowntime TrainingTrainingUser supportUser support Tweaking: $100B/yearTweaking: $100B/year


How much do businesses worldwideHow much do businesses worldwidespend on Information Technology?spend on Information Technology?

$2,700,000,000,000every year!every year!


The Wild, Wild InternetThe Wild, Wild Internet

>50% of email is spam>50% of email is spam SpywareSpyware

ScamsScamsViruses cost $50 billion/yearViruses cost $50 billion/year

Spam costs $22 billion/yearSpam costs $22 billion/year

Personal web surfing costs $300 billion/yearPersonal web surfing costs $300 billion/year

MisinformationMisinformation


StressStress

HappinessHappiness

Guidelines for theTechnology Consumer

1. Be Skeptical1. Be Skeptical

2. Beware Predictions2. Beware Predictions

3. Permission Slip3. Permission Slip

4. Debate4. Debate

5. Relax!5. Relax!

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