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Evelyn Wright & Dan Loughlin APB/APPCD/NRMRL/ORD/USEPA
Presentation to NESCAUM
December 18th, 2003
Example Application:Example Application:Modeling TrainsModeling Trains
in Regional MARKALin Regional MARKAL
Regional Transportation: Trains
Types of Demand
Regional Transportation: Trains
Types of DemandInter-city Trains
Regional Transportation: Trains
Types of DemandCommuter Trains
Regional Transportation: Trains
Types of DemandIntra-City Transit
Regional Transportation: TrainsBuild Database
Type Fuel Efficiency(bil-pass-mi/PJ)
Cost($bil/bil-pass-mi)
Lifespan(years)
Demand(t)(bil-pass-mi/yr)
Light Duty Rail Electricity
0.82 … … TA(t)
Heavy Duty Rail Electricity
1.09 … … TA(t)
Commuter Rail Electricity
0.98 … … TB(t)
Diesel 0.44 … … TB(t)
Inter-city Rail Electricity
0.66 … … TC(t)
Diesel 0.39 … … TC(t)
Regional TransportationDefine RES
TA
TB
TC
DemandTechnologyEnergy
Heavy Rail
Light Rail
Commuter RailElectric
Commuter RailDiesel
Inter-City RailElectric
Inter-City RailDiesel
Electricity
Diesel
Intercity Demand
Commuter Demand
Intracity Demand
Regional TransportationWhat does the model do?
TA
TB
TC
DemandTechnologyEnergy
Heavy Rail
Light Rail
Commuter RailElectric
Commuter RailDiesel
Inter-City RailElectric
Inter-City RailDiesel
Electricity
Diesel
Intercity Demand
Commuter Demand
Intracity Demand
Regional Transportation: TrainsScenarios
Base case: * technology choices (types of trains, investment cost, etc.) * fuel usage by type * fuel prices * emissions * ? local emissions ? – depends on detail * ? economic impacts ? – depends on linkage to econ model Construct scenarios to evaluate effects of: * technology changes and emergence of new technologies * changes in energy prices * subsidized ticket prices and/or infrastructure * additional capacity * changes in prices for other transportation modes * mode changes – depends on elasticities, travel demand
Regional Transportation: TrainsIssues
Competition
Inter-city Rail: Competes with planes, buses, and autos
Commuter Rail: Competes with buses, taxis, and autos
Intra-city Rail: Competes with buses, taxis, and autos
Could feed same demand pools. Use price elasticities to determine demand for each mode.Need info on purpose of auto, bus travel.
Regional Transportation: TrainsIssues
Time of day: (peak vs. off-peak)
Specify peak and off-peak demandProvide peak capacities
Rush hour Rush hour
Time
Regional Transportation: TrainsIssues
Geographical Constraints
* Limited capacity in existing lines * Limited availability of land for new systems
Place constraints in model representing capacity constraints
Regional Transportation: TrainsConclusions
* Try simple representation first * Characterize -> what is missing -> does it matter? * If “yes”, Prioritize and refine * Level of detail required is a function of objectives -> be flexible, but -> define as early in the process as possible * Remember, /good/ modeling is inherently iterative
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