Evelyn Wright & Dan Loughlin APB/APPCD/NRMRL/ORD/USEPA

Presentation to NESCAUM

December 18th, 2003

Example Application:Example Application:Modeling TrainsModeling Trains

in Regional MARKALin Regional MARKAL

Regional Transportation: Trains

Types of Demand

Regional Transportation: Trains

Types of DemandInter-city Trains

Regional Transportation: Trains

Types of DemandCommuter Trains

Regional Transportation: Trains

Types of DemandIntra-City Transit

Regional Transportation: TrainsBuild Database

Type Fuel Efficiency(bil-pass-mi/PJ)

Cost($bil/bil-pass-mi)

Lifespan(years)

Demand(t)(bil-pass-mi/yr)

Light Duty Rail Electricity

0.82 … … TA(t)

Heavy Duty Rail Electricity

1.09 … … TA(t)

Commuter Rail Electricity

0.98 … … TB(t)

Diesel 0.44 … … TB(t)

Inter-city Rail Electricity

0.66 … … TC(t)

Diesel 0.39 … … TC(t)

Regional TransportationDefine RES

TA

TB

TC

DemandTechnologyEnergy

Heavy Rail

Light Rail

Commuter RailElectric

Commuter RailDiesel

Inter-City RailElectric

Inter-City RailDiesel

Electricity

Diesel

Intercity Demand

Commuter Demand

Intracity Demand

Regional TransportationWhat does the model do?

TA

TB

TC

DemandTechnologyEnergy

Heavy Rail

Light Rail

Commuter RailElectric

Commuter RailDiesel

Inter-City RailElectric

Inter-City RailDiesel

Electricity

Diesel

Intercity Demand

Commuter Demand

Intracity Demand

Regional Transportation: TrainsScenarios

Base case: * technology choices (types of trains, investment cost, etc.) * fuel usage by type * fuel prices * emissions * ? local emissions ? – depends on detail * ? economic impacts ? – depends on linkage to econ model Construct scenarios to evaluate effects of: * technology changes and emergence of new technologies * changes in energy prices * subsidized ticket prices and/or infrastructure * additional capacity * changes in prices for other transportation modes * mode changes – depends on elasticities, travel demand

Regional Transportation: TrainsIssues

Competition

Inter-city Rail: Competes with planes, buses, and autos

Commuter Rail: Competes with buses, taxis, and autos

Intra-city Rail: Competes with buses, taxis, and autos

Could feed same demand pools. Use price elasticities to determine demand for each mode.Need info on purpose of auto, bus travel.

Regional Transportation: TrainsIssues

Time of day: (peak vs. off-peak)

Specify peak and off-peak demandProvide peak capacities

Rush hour Rush hour

Time

Regional Transportation: TrainsIssues

Geographical Constraints

* Limited capacity in existing lines * Limited availability of land for new systems

Place constraints in model representing capacity constraints

Regional Transportation: TrainsConclusions

* Try simple representation first * Characterize -> what is missing -> does it matter? * If “yes”, Prioritize and refine * Level of detail required is a function of objectives -> be flexible, but -> define as early in the process as possible * Remember, /good/ modeling is inherently iterative