Energy Transitions for India- A perspectiverb/Professional Activities/2016_India22.pdf · Energy...

Energy Transitions for India- A perspective

Rangan Banerjee

Department of Energy Science and Engg

IIT Bombay

Overall questions/issues

What is the current status of India’s energy use?

What have been the transitions in the past?

What are the likely transitions in the future?

What are the challenges and opportunities?

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India and World (Selected Indicators for 2013)

Population 1250 million 7118 million

GDP (PPP) 5846 Billion 2005 US$

(4677 $/person)

86334 Billion 2005 US$

(12129 $/person)

Primary Energy 33 EJ 559 EJ

Energy/person 26.6 GJ/person/year 84.4 GJ/person/year

Electricity/person 760 kWh/capita/year 2972 kWh/capita/year

CO2 emissions

Per person

Per GDP

1869 Million tonnes 32190 Million tonnes

1.5 tonnes /capita/year 4.52 tonnes /capita/year

0.32 kg /US$ ppp 0.57 kg /US$ ppp

Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2015

http://www.iea.org/statistics/statisticssearch/report/?country=INDIA&product=indicators&year=2013

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Goals for the Energy sector

#1 Provide Access to “convenient” energy services, affordable

#2 Make new technologies attractive to investors

#3 Develop sustainable energy systems –Climate, local emissions, land, water

#4 Provide energy needed for development and growth

#5 Energy Security

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India’s INDC

#1 Reduce Emissions Intensity of GDP by 33-35% of 2005 level in 2030

#2 Create 40% cumulative non fossil power by installed capacity by 2030 (using finance from Green Climate Fund)

#3 Create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through additional tree cover and forest

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Renewable share?

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What will be the future supply mix for the Electricity sector in 2066?

How much can renewables and nuclear supply?

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Renewable Installed Capacity

Renewable Generation

Nuclear generation Nuclear Installed Capacity

Renewable Share in Power

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Renewable installed capacity and generation

*as on 28.02.2016 MNRE website: www.mnre.gov.in

Installed

Capacity*

Estimated

Capacity factor

Estimated

Generation

(GWh) (MW)

Wind 25217 14% 30926

Biomass & Bagasse 4827 70% 29596

Small Hydro 4194 40% 14697

Waste to Energy 115 50% 504

Solar PV 5547 19% 9233

Total 39901 25% 84957

Primary Energy Mix

Coal Oil and GasRenewables and Nuclear

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Primary Energy Mix

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Primary Energy Mix 2066 Target

Coal Oil and GasRenewables and Nuclear

Power Generation – Supply mix

Thermal NuclearRenewables and Hydro

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Power Generation – Supply mix

Thermal NuclearRenewables and Hydro

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Power Generation – Supply mix

Thermal NuclearRenewables and Hydro

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Kaya Identity

Total CO2 Emissions

= (CO2/E)(E/GDP)(GDP/Pop)Pop

CO2/E – Carbon Intensity

E/GDP- Energy Intensity of Economy

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Kaya identity components

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POPULATION GDP/PER CAPITA ENERGY/GDP CO2/ENERGY

Per

ceta

ge (

%)

Data Value

Chart Title

2066 2035 2013 1966 Baseline

POP GDP ENERGY CO2

1966 495 2000 5.5 35

2013 1250 4700 6.54 56.6

2035 1500 6000 5 35

2066 1800 12000 3 12

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Time Series Trends In Intensity

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Energy Intensity of GDP (toe/10000$) Emissions Intensity of Energy (tCO2/toe)

Emissions Intensity of GDP (tCO2/10000$)

CAGR=3% CAGR=5% CAGR=5.5% CAGR=7%

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# 1

Sectoral Mix

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Serv

ice

s

Industry

# 1

India-1971(23,36,42)

China-1971(27,19,53)

UK - 1971(37,61,1)

AustraliaSwitzerland

GermanyUnited States

China

India

Pakistan

Zimbabwe

0.000

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Hum

an D

evelo

pm

ent

Index (

HD

I)

Annual Electricity consumption/ capita (kWh)

HDI and Electricity consumption (2013)

World

2035 India

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Gujarat Wind1st April 201622:47 pm

Gujarat Wind3rd March 201622:00 pm

Installed Capacity 3542 MW

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A.Dave, T.Kanitkar and R.Banerjee Analysing Implications of India's Renewable Energy Targets, 2016 - draft

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SAM

Intermediate Consumption

Final Demand

EndogenousExogenous

SAM Coefficients

Multiplier Decomposition

Δf

New ProductionNew SAM

Scenarios for Sectoral

Growth

Energy Demand

Energy Supply

Constraints –Resource, Emissions

Investment

Analysis using SAM From Decomposition Analysis

Δx = MA*Δf

From Optimisation or

Manual

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Non Fossil Electricity

• INDC Target Achievable

• Low Capacity factors- High daily and seasonal variability

• Financing issues – Initial capital –Reduction in GDP, Equity impacts

• Storage costs – problems with high penetration -Capacity credit?

• Need for R&D and indigenization

• Impact on Employment26

Thrust on Energy R&D

• Consortium Approaches

• Grand Challenges – Innovation

• Incubation and Innovation – INFUSE

• Clean Coal, Storage, Cost Effective Renewables Energy Efficiency, New processes etc..

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National Solar Thermal Power Facility – Consortium supported by MNRE and led by IIT Bombay

Thermal Storage

Solar Field

Expansion Vessel

Heat Exchanger

Generator

Condenser

Turbine

PumpPump

Cooling Water Circuit

Water/ Steam Loop

ThermicOil Loop

CLFR Direct Steam

Schematic of 1 MW Solar Power PlantSimulator snapshot

Parabolic Trough Solar Field Linear Fresnel Reflector Solar Field at Gwalpahari site

Consortium Members

KIE Solatherm

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TEAM SHUNYASOLAR DECATHLON EUROPE 2014

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House in Versailles – 26th June, 2014

Team Shunya

70 students 13 disciplines 12 faculty

Challenges and Opportunities

• Accelerated Diffusion – Green Buildings, Efficient Appliances, Hybrid Vehicles –Market Transformation – Mandates and incentives

• Enabling ecosystem- Public domain information, Improved mapping, resource assessment, monitoring, forecasting tools

• Level Playing Field For DSM – Paradigm shift –focus on energy services not energy

• Financing the energy sector – level playing field for distributed energy

• Innovation and startups

• Grand Challenges

• Manufacturing capability development – Employment ––SC coal, Storage

• Land, water Impacts

• Directed Research missions- stated goals,process driven allocations, public domain results – Evolution of Consortia

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Acknowledgment

Balkrishna SurveTejal Kanitkar Ajit Paul Abraham

Thank you

rangan@iitb.ac.inrangan.banerjee@gmail.com

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Jani Das

IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2015

Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, http://www.mnre.gov.in

http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in

Tejal Kanitkar, Rangan Banerjee, T. Jayaraman, Impact of economic structure on mitigation targets for developing countries, Energy for Sustainable Development, Volume 26, June 2015, Pages 56-61, ISSN 0973-0826, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2015.03.003.

References

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