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Energy Transitions for India- A perspective
Rangan Banerjee
Department of Energy Science and Engg
IIT Bombay
Overall questions/issues
What is the current status of India’s energy use?
What have been the transitions in the past?
What are the likely transitions in the future?
What are the challenges and opportunities?
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3
India and World (Selected Indicators for 2013)
Population 1250 million 7118 million
GDP (PPP) 5846 Billion 2005 US$
(4677 $/person)
86334 Billion 2005 US$
(12129 $/person)
Primary Energy 33 EJ 559 EJ
Energy/person 26.6 GJ/person/year 84.4 GJ/person/year
Electricity/person 760 kWh/capita/year 2972 kWh/capita/year
CO2 emissions
Per person
Per GDP
1869 Million tonnes 32190 Million tonnes
1.5 tonnes /capita/year 4.52 tonnes /capita/year
0.32 kg /US$ ppp 0.57 kg /US$ ppp
Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2015
http://www.iea.org/statistics/statisticssearch/report/?country=INDIA&product=indicators&year=2013
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Goals for the Energy sector
#1 Provide Access to “convenient” energy services, affordable
#2 Make new technologies attractive to investors
#3 Develop sustainable energy systems –Climate, local emissions, land, water
#4 Provide energy needed for development and growth
#5 Energy Security
5
India’s INDC
#1 Reduce Emissions Intensity of GDP by 33-35% of 2005 level in 2030
#2 Create 40% cumulative non fossil power by installed capacity by 2030 (using finance from Green Climate Fund)
#3 Create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through additional tree cover and forest
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Renewable share?
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What will be the future supply mix for the Electricity sector in 2066?
How much can renewables and nuclear supply?
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Renewable Installed Capacity
Renewable Generation
Nuclear generation Nuclear Installed Capacity
Renewable Share in Power
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Renewable installed capacity and generation
*as on 28.02.2016 MNRE website: www.mnre.gov.in
Installed
Capacity*
Estimated
Capacity factor
Estimated
Generation
(GWh) (MW)
Wind 25217 14% 30926
Biomass & Bagasse 4827 70% 29596
Small Hydro 4194 40% 14697
Waste to Energy 115 50% 504
Solar PV 5547 19% 9233
Total 39901 25% 84957
Primary Energy Mix
Coal Oil and GasRenewables and Nuclear
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Primary Energy Mix
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Primary Energy Mix 2066 Target
Coal Oil and GasRenewables and Nuclear
Power Generation – Supply mix
Thermal NuclearRenewables and Hydro
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Power Generation – Supply mix
Thermal NuclearRenewables and Hydro
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Power Generation – Supply mix
Thermal NuclearRenewables and Hydro
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Kaya Identity
Total CO2 Emissions
= (CO2/E)(E/GDP)(GDP/Pop)Pop
CO2/E – Carbon Intensity
E/GDP- Energy Intensity of Economy
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Kaya identity components
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
POPULATION GDP/PER CAPITA ENERGY/GDP CO2/ENERGY
Per
ceta
ge (
%)
Data Value
Chart Title
2066 2035 2013 1966 Baseline
POP GDP ENERGY CO2
1966 495 2000 5.5 35
2013 1250 4700 6.54 56.6
2035 1500 6000 5 35
2066 1800 12000 3 12
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Time Series Trends In Intensity
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0
5
10
15
20
25
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08
Energy Intensity of GDP (toe/10000$) Emissions Intensity of Energy (tCO2/toe)
Emissions Intensity of GDP (tCO2/10000$)
CAGR=3% CAGR=5% CAGR=5.5% CAGR=7%
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# 1
Sectoral Mix
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Serv
ice
s
Industry
# 1
India-1971(23,36,42)
China-1971(27,19,53)
UK - 1971(37,61,1)
AustraliaSwitzerland
GermanyUnited States
China
India
Pakistan
Zimbabwe
0.000
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600
0.700
0.800
0.900
1.000
0 5000 10000 15000
Hum
an D
evelo
pm
ent
Index (
HD
I)
Annual Electricity consumption/ capita (kWh)
HDI and Electricity consumption (2013)
World
2035 India
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Gujarat Wind1st April 201622:47 pm
Gujarat Wind3rd March 201622:00 pm
Installed Capacity 3542 MW
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A.Dave, T.Kanitkar and R.Banerjee Analysing Implications of India's Renewable Energy Targets, 2016 - draft
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SAM
Intermediate Consumption
Final Demand
EndogenousExogenous
SAM Coefficients
Multiplier Decomposition
Δf
New ProductionNew SAM
Scenarios for Sectoral
Growth
Energy Demand
Energy Supply
Constraints –Resource, Emissions
Investment
Analysis using SAM From Decomposition Analysis
Δx = MA*Δf
From Optimisation or
Manual
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Non Fossil Electricity
• INDC Target Achievable
• Low Capacity factors- High daily and seasonal variability
• Financing issues – Initial capital –Reduction in GDP, Equity impacts
• Storage costs – problems with high penetration -Capacity credit?
• Need for R&D and indigenization
• Impact on Employment26
Thrust on Energy R&D
• Consortium Approaches
• Grand Challenges – Innovation
• Incubation and Innovation – INFUSE
• Clean Coal, Storage, Cost Effective Renewables Energy Efficiency, New processes etc..
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National Solar Thermal Power Facility – Consortium supported by MNRE and led by IIT Bombay
Thermal Storage
Solar Field
Expansion Vessel
Heat Exchanger
Generator
Condenser
Turbine
PumpPump
Cooling Water Circuit
Water/ Steam Loop
ThermicOil Loop
CLFR Direct Steam
Schematic of 1 MW Solar Power PlantSimulator snapshot
Parabolic Trough Solar Field Linear Fresnel Reflector Solar Field at Gwalpahari site
Consortium Members
KIE Solatherm
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TEAM SHUNYASOLAR DECATHLON EUROPE 2014
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House in Versailles – 26th June, 2014
Team Shunya
70 students 13 disciplines 12 faculty
Challenges and Opportunities
• Accelerated Diffusion – Green Buildings, Efficient Appliances, Hybrid Vehicles –Market Transformation – Mandates and incentives
• Enabling ecosystem- Public domain information, Improved mapping, resource assessment, monitoring, forecasting tools
• Level Playing Field For DSM – Paradigm shift –focus on energy services not energy
• Financing the energy sector – level playing field for distributed energy
• Innovation and startups
• Grand Challenges
• Manufacturing capability development – Employment ––SC coal, Storage
• Land, water Impacts
• Directed Research missions- stated goals,process driven allocations, public domain results – Evolution of Consortia
33
Acknowledgment
Balkrishna SurveTejal Kanitkar Ajit Paul Abraham
Thank you
[email protected]@gmail.com
34
Jani Das
IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2015
Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, http://www.mnre.gov.in
http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in
Tejal Kanitkar, Rangan Banerjee, T. Jayaraman, Impact of economic structure on mitigation targets for developing countries, Energy for Sustainable Development, Volume 26, June 2015, Pages 56-61, ISSN 0973-0826, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2015.03.003.
References
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