Economics, Government Relations and the Club Community · Economics, Government Relations and the...

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Economics, Government Relations and the Club Community

May 21, 2020

Presented byCongressman Dan Kildee (D-Mich.), Chief Deputy Whip, U.S. House of RepresentativesCurtis Dubay, Lead Economist U.S. Chamber of CommerceTerra S.H. Waldron, CCM, CCE, ECM, Chair, National Club Association and Chief Operating Officer, Greensboro Country Club

Moderated by Joe Trauger, VP of Government Relations, National Club Association

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Henry Wallmeyer

President and CEONational Club Association

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Joe Trauger

Vice President of Government RelationsNational Club Association

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Congressman Dan Kildee

Chief Deputy Whip of the House Democratic Caucus U.S. House of RepresentativesMichigan's 5th Congressional District

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Curtis Dubay

Lead Economist U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Curtis Dubay

Senior Economist, U.S. Chamber of Commerce

May 2020

282,000

3,307,000

6,867,000 6,615,000

5,237,000

4,442,000

3,867,000

3,176,000 2,981,000

100,000

1,100,000

2,100,000

3,100,000

4,100,000

5,100,000

6,100,000

Week ofMarch 14

Week ofMarch 21

Week ofMarch 28

Week ofApril 4

Week ofApril 11

Week ofApril 18

Week ofApril 25

Week ofMay 2

Week ofMay 9

Historically High Unemployment Insurance Claims Continue - But are Declining

1.1%

3.1%

2.0% 2.1% 2.1%

-4.8%-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020

Economic Growth Fell Steeply in the First Quarter

-30.0%

-39.6% -39.0% -40.0%-38.0%

-32.0%

-22.3%

-34.4%

-40.0%

-35.0%

-30.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

B of A CBO Goldman Sachs J.P. Morgan Morgan StanleyOxford

Economics Wells Fargo Average

Second Quarter Contraction Will Be Steep

2.1%

-4.8%

-34.4%

19.9%

7.7%

-5.1%

2.3%

-35.0%

-25.0%

-15.0%

-5.0%

5.0%

15.0%

2019 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 Annual 2021 Annual

U.S. Economic Growth will Contract Sharply in First Half of 2020

Source: U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Various

$21,729

$21,537

$19,690

$20,675

$21,073$21,194

$21,316$21,438

$21,562$21,686

$21,810

$18,500

$19,000

$19,500

$20,000

$20,500

$21,000

$21,500

$22,000

2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 2022 Q2

GDP Returns to Pre-Shock Level in 2022 Q2

1.83

1.251.52 1.72

2.08 1.891.59 1.55 1.58 1.44

1.13

-3.23

-6.75

-8.41

-10.38-10.86 -10.9 -10.91

-11.14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

Jan 04 Jan 11 Jan 18 Jan 25 Feb 01 Feb 08 Feb 15 Feb 22 Feb 29 Mar 07 Mar 14 Mar 21 Mar 28 Apr 04 Apr 11 Apr 18 Apr 25 May 02 May 09

Weekly Economic Index Continues to Drop- But Slower

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

61

/5/2

00

8

3/1

/200

8

4/2

6/2

00

8

6/2

1/2

00

8

8/1

6/2

00

8

10/1

1/2

008

12/6

/20

08

1/3

1/2

00

9

3/2

8/2

00

9

5/2

3/2

00

9

7/1

8/2

00

9

9/1

2/2

00

9

11/7

/20

09

1/2

/201

0

2/2

7/2

01

0

4/2

4/2

01

0

6/1

9/2

01

0

8/1

4/2

01

0

10/9

/20

10

12/4

/20

10

1/2

9/2

01

1

3/2

6/2

01

1

5/2

1/2

01

1

7/1

6/2

01

1

9/1

0/2

01

1

11/5

/20

11

12/3

1/2

011

2/2

5/2

01

2

4/2

1/2

01

2

6/1

6/2

01

2

8/1

1/2

01

2

10/6

/20

12

12/1

/20

12

1/2

6/2

01

3

3/2

3/2

01

3

5/1

8/2

01

3

7/1

3/2

01

3

9/7

/201

3

11/2

/20

13

12/2

8/2

013

2/2

2/2

01

4

4/1

9/2

01

4

6/1

4/2

01

4

8/9

/201

4

10/4

/20

14

11/2

9/2

014

1/2

4/2

01

5

3/2

1/2

01

5

5/1

6/2

01

5

7/1

1/2

01

5

9/5

/201

5

10/3

1/2

015

12/2

6/2

015

2/2

0/2

01

6

4/1

6/2

01

6

6/1

1/2

01

6

8/6

/201

6

10/1

/20

16

11/2

6/2

016

1/2

1/2

01

7

3/1

8/2

01

7

5/1

3/2

01

7

7/8

/201

7

9/2

/201

7

10/2

8/2

017

12/2

3/2

017

2/1

7/2

01

8

4/1

4/2

01

8

6/9

/201

8

8/4

/201

8

9/2

9/2

01

8

11/2

4/2

018

1/1

9/2

01

9

3/1

6/2

01

9

5/1

1/2

01

9

7/6

/201

9

8/3

1/2

01

9

10/2

6/2

019

12/2

1/2

019

2/1

5/2

02

0

4/1

1/2

02

0

WE

IWeekly Economic Index Lower than any Point in Financial Crisis

$3,000,000

$3,500,000

$4,000,000

$4,500,000

$5,000,000

$5,500,000

$6,000,000

$6,500,000

$7,000,000

$M

illio

ns

Federal Reserve Total Assets are Growing Rapidly

$6.9 trillion

$4.4 Trillion

$0

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

$5,000,000

$6,000,000

$7,000,000

2018-01-03 2018-04-03 2018-07-03 2018-10-03 2019-01-03 2019-04-03 2019-07-03 2019-10-03 2020-01-03 2020-04-03

Composition of Federal Reserve's Assets

Treasuries MBS Currency Swaps Other

$0

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

$5,000,000

$6,000,000

$7,000,000

2018-01-03 2018-04-03 2018-07-03 2018-10-03 2019-01-03 2019-04-03 2019-07-03 2019-10-03 2020-01-03 2020-04-03

$M

illio

ns

Bank Reserves Rising Rapidly

Currency Deposits Other

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Terra S.H. Waldron, CCM, CCE, ECM

ChairNational Club Association

Chief Operating OfficerGreensboro Country Club

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Economics, Government Relations and the Club Community

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