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Economics, Government Relations and the Club Community
May 21, 2020
Presented byCongressman Dan Kildee (D-Mich.), Chief Deputy Whip, U.S. House of RepresentativesCurtis Dubay, Lead Economist U.S. Chamber of CommerceTerra S.H. Waldron, CCM, CCE, ECM, Chair, National Club Association and Chief Operating Officer, Greensboro Country Club
Moderated by Joe Trauger, VP of Government Relations, National Club Association
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Henry Wallmeyer
President and CEONational Club Association
nationalclub.org/coronavirus
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Joe Trauger
Vice President of Government RelationsNational Club Association
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Congressman Dan Kildee
Chief Deputy Whip of the House Democratic Caucus U.S. House of RepresentativesMichigan's 5th Congressional District
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Curtis Dubay
Lead Economist U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Curtis Dubay
Senior Economist, U.S. Chamber of Commerce
May 2020
282,000
3,307,000
6,867,000 6,615,000
5,237,000
4,442,000
3,867,000
3,176,000 2,981,000
100,000
1,100,000
2,100,000
3,100,000
4,100,000
5,100,000
6,100,000
Week ofMarch 14
Week ofMarch 21
Week ofMarch 28
Week ofApril 4
Week ofApril 11
Week ofApril 18
Week ofApril 25
Week ofMay 2
Week ofMay 9
Historically High Unemployment Insurance Claims Continue - But are Declining
1.1%
3.1%
2.0% 2.1% 2.1%
-4.8%-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
Economic Growth Fell Steeply in the First Quarter
-30.0%
-39.6% -39.0% -40.0%-38.0%
-32.0%
-22.3%
-34.4%
-40.0%
-35.0%
-30.0%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
B of A CBO Goldman Sachs J.P. Morgan Morgan StanleyOxford
Economics Wells Fargo Average
Second Quarter Contraction Will Be Steep
2.1%
-4.8%
-34.4%
19.9%
7.7%
-5.1%
2.3%
-35.0%
-25.0%
-15.0%
-5.0%
5.0%
15.0%
2019 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 Annual 2021 Annual
U.S. Economic Growth will Contract Sharply in First Half of 2020
Source: U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Various
$21,729
$21,537
$19,690
$20,675
$21,073$21,194
$21,316$21,438
$21,562$21,686
$21,810
$18,500
$19,000
$19,500
$20,000
$20,500
$21,000
$21,500
$22,000
2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 2022 Q2
GDP Returns to Pre-Shock Level in 2022 Q2
1.83
1.251.52 1.72
2.08 1.891.59 1.55 1.58 1.44
1.13
-3.23
-6.75
-8.41
-10.38-10.86 -10.9 -10.91
-11.14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
Jan 04 Jan 11 Jan 18 Jan 25 Feb 01 Feb 08 Feb 15 Feb 22 Feb 29 Mar 07 Mar 14 Mar 21 Mar 28 Apr 04 Apr 11 Apr 18 Apr 25 May 02 May 09
Weekly Economic Index Continues to Drop- But Slower
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
61
/5/2
00
8
3/1
/200
8
4/2
6/2
00
8
6/2
1/2
00
8
8/1
6/2
00
8
10/1
1/2
008
12/6
/20
08
1/3
1/2
00
9
3/2
8/2
00
9
5/2
3/2
00
9
7/1
8/2
00
9
9/1
2/2
00
9
11/7
/20
09
1/2
/201
0
2/2
7/2
01
0
4/2
4/2
01
0
6/1
9/2
01
0
8/1
4/2
01
0
10/9
/20
10
12/4
/20
10
1/2
9/2
01
1
3/2
6/2
01
1
5/2
1/2
01
1
7/1
6/2
01
1
9/1
0/2
01
1
11/5
/20
11
12/3
1/2
011
2/2
5/2
01
2
4/2
1/2
01
2
6/1
6/2
01
2
8/1
1/2
01
2
10/6
/20
12
12/1
/20
12
1/2
6/2
01
3
3/2
3/2
01
3
5/1
8/2
01
3
7/1
3/2
01
3
9/7
/201
3
11/2
/20
13
12/2
8/2
013
2/2
2/2
01
4
4/1
9/2
01
4
6/1
4/2
01
4
8/9
/201
4
10/4
/20
14
11/2
9/2
014
1/2
4/2
01
5
3/2
1/2
01
5
5/1
6/2
01
5
7/1
1/2
01
5
9/5
/201
5
10/3
1/2
015
12/2
6/2
015
2/2
0/2
01
6
4/1
6/2
01
6
6/1
1/2
01
6
8/6
/201
6
10/1
/20
16
11/2
6/2
016
1/2
1/2
01
7
3/1
8/2
01
7
5/1
3/2
01
7
7/8
/201
7
9/2
/201
7
10/2
8/2
017
12/2
3/2
017
2/1
7/2
01
8
4/1
4/2
01
8
6/9
/201
8
8/4
/201
8
9/2
9/2
01
8
11/2
4/2
018
1/1
9/2
01
9
3/1
6/2
01
9
5/1
1/2
01
9
7/6
/201
9
8/3
1/2
01
9
10/2
6/2
019
12/2
1/2
019
2/1
5/2
02
0
4/1
1/2
02
0
WE
IWeekly Economic Index Lower than any Point in Financial Crisis
$3,000,000
$3,500,000
$4,000,000
$4,500,000
$5,000,000
$5,500,000
$6,000,000
$6,500,000
$7,000,000
$M
illio
ns
Federal Reserve Total Assets are Growing Rapidly
$6.9 trillion
$4.4 Trillion
$0
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
$6,000,000
$7,000,000
2018-01-03 2018-04-03 2018-07-03 2018-10-03 2019-01-03 2019-04-03 2019-07-03 2019-10-03 2020-01-03 2020-04-03
Composition of Federal Reserve's Assets
Treasuries MBS Currency Swaps Other
$0
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
$6,000,000
$7,000,000
2018-01-03 2018-04-03 2018-07-03 2018-10-03 2019-01-03 2019-04-03 2019-07-03 2019-10-03 2020-01-03 2020-04-03
$M
illio
ns
Bank Reserves Rising Rapidly
Currency Deposits Other
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Terra S.H. Waldron, CCM, CCE, ECM
ChairNational Club Association
Chief Operating OfficerGreensboro Country Club
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Economics, Government Relations and the Club Community
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