EU-Russia Relations:Alternative Futures

Sergei Medvedev,

Higher School of Economics, Moscow

Fifteen years of zastoi No evident crisis, but a perpetual stalemate 3 gaps

between EU-Russia interdependence and the actual state of relations

between political rhetoric the level of implementation between ‘strategic partnership’ and the lack of strategic

thinking Zastoi = stagnation, muddling through (a word from

the Brezhnev era) supported by massive energy flows concealed by increased semiotic activity (strategies,

partnerships, summits)

The structural impediment

No mega-incentive of Russian membership of the EU EU political machinery not suited for dealing with non-

acceding “partners” ENP a watered-down derivative of enlargement, “common

spaces” a watered-down version of the ENP Russia not sure about the way to deal with the EU

EU a new political animal, a bureaucratic/technical, rather than strategic way of policy-making

Russia defaults into tried and tested bilateralism The negativist strategy: “no intention to join the EU” as the

main stated strategy… but is it enough?

Building the scenarios

Why? This is a way to fill the third gap (lack of strategic thinking) no intent to forecast, but rather to conceptualize and

problematize EU-Russia relations explore possible options and risks find the points of compatibility/convergence of both

systems How? A need to develop a forecasting instrument that

would suit both Russia and the EU Common denominators: globalization and adaptation Common variable: re-defining the role of the nation-state

GLOBAL TRENDS: Globalization and resistance

KEY VARIABLE: Role of the nation-state

Europeanscenarios

E1

E2

E3

Building the scenarios

Russian scenarios

R1

R2

R3

ER3

ER2

ER1

Globalization and resistance De-Nationalization Integration

EU federalism Homogeneity

Markets, liberalism Americanization

New Economy networks

Crisis of the welfare state Liberal imperialism New World Order

Re-Nationalization Fragmentation

Regionalization, localization

Resistance/Identity State as an anchor of identity Anti-Americanism

Old Economy, oil, resources, hierarchy

State intervention Global terrorism Regional instability

Key variable = Role of the Nation-state

Role of the Nation-State

In the economy (Economic axis X): Liberal/ globalized / private / de-regulated/, or… Statist / Public / Regulated / protectionist

In politics (Political axis Y): Decentralized / networked / confederal, or… Centralized / integrated / unitary

Generic chart

StatistRegulated

LiberalGlobal

Centralized/Integrated

Decentralized/Networked

Economic axis

Poli

tica

l axi

s

Russia’s options

StatistRegulated

LiberalGlobal

Centralized/Integrated

Decentralized/Networked

R1: Authoritarian Modernization

R2: Liberal Modernization

R3: Bureaucratic Capitalism

Russian scenarios

R1: Authoritarian modernization Model: South Korea in the 1960s-1980s

R2: Liberal modernization Model: East Central Europe in the 1990s

R3: Bureaucratic capitalism Model: Mexico, Indonesia

R1: Authoritarian modernization

Political centralization “Administrative vertical”, “managed democracy” Limits on federalism and local autonomy East Asian models: South Korea1960s-70s? Corporatism / re-distribution of resource rent

Liberal economic and social agenda Capital-intensive modernization projects Dismantling the paternalist social system WTO membership, OECD application

Generally pro-Western foreign policy Extended cooperation with the US (terrorism, Greater Middle East?) Friction with EU, CoE, OSCE

R2: Liberal modernization

Political pluralism Resurgence of liberal parties/projects (support by the Kremlin?) Modernization from below, civil society development

Extended federalism and regionalism Cross-border cooperation

Full economic liberalization, de-monopolization Fighting the “Dutch disease” and resource dependence Development of the small and medium business Central European model (Poland, Czech Republic)

Enhanced dialogue with the EU Not just economic interests, but normative affinity and legal

harmonization

R3: Bureaucratic Capitalism

Informal state capitalism Corporations are private but de facto controlled by the state High ownership concentration / monopolies (Gazprom, Rosneft, etc.) Postponement of structural reform / stagnation / corruption Dependence on natural resources/ oil exports: Russia as a petro-state

Authoritarian drift Privileged role for the bureaucratic corporation/security elite One-party rule (like in Japan, Mexico) A unitary territorial structure (appointing governors)

“Cold peace” with the West Opposing the “Color Revolutions” in the CIS

EU options

StatistRegulated

LiberalGlobal

Centralized/Integrated

Decentralized/Networked

E1: Global Actor

E2: Common Market Plus

E3: FortressEurope

EU scenarios

E1: Global actor Political Union (French concept)

E2: Common Market Plus Economic Union Plus (British concept)

E3: Fortress Europe Isolationist view

E1: Global actor Success of constitutional referenda and institutional reform

Moving towards the political union Deepening and widening of the EU (accession of Turkey,

Ukraine, etc.) Liberal economic policy: opening up EU markets to

globalization Consolidated foreign and security policy

Enhanced Neighborhood Policy Global role – out of the area

E2: Common Market Plus

Failure of the Constitution and of institutional reform Weakening of central institutions, re-nationalization

and regionalization Emergence of a “core Europe” of rich nations Proliferation of bilateralism

No political union, “Common Market Plus” Globalization and liberalization of national and

subregional markets Low-profile global role of the EU

E3: Fortress Europe

Powerful external variables /“globalization gone bad”: Global terrorism, WMD, Islamic mobilization Role of the US and/or Russia climate change, catastrophic migration

Enlargement stops at 25 + BG, ROM, CRO Limited institutional reform, with impact on JHA

Securitization of polity, stricter immigration/border control

Economy: protectionism and state intervention Foreign policy: Isolationism, no global commitment

Failure of subregionalism and of neighborhood projects

EU-Russia scenario matrix

Russia

Europe

Liberal Modernization

Authoritarian Modernization

BureaucraticCapitalism

Global Actor Partnership Zastoi Zastoi

Common Market +

Partnership Zastoi Zastoi

Fortress Europe

Cold Peace Cold Peace Cold Peace

EU-Russia scenarios:The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

ER1: Partnership Probability: Low (2)

ER2: Cold Peace Probability: Medium (3)

ER3: Zastoi Probability: High (4)

ER1: Partnership Development of EU-Russia institutions beyond the

traditional neighborhood policy a Special Partner status for Russia? acceptance by Russia of part of the acquis, institutional

adaptation

Full cooperation in the four common spaces Economy: from the Free Trade Area to Common Economic

Space CFSP: Cooperative security with Russia JHA: full cooperation (counterterrorism), visa-free status

for Russia?

ER2: Cold Peace A combination of worst-case scenarios:

deteriorating global conditions: terrorism, WMD, migration global security alert, geopolitics, competition for resources “Fortress Europe” in the EU and/or bureaucratic capitalism

in Russia

EU and Russia increasingly alienated US-Russia cooperation possible, over the head of the EU Russia’s unsuccessful attempts to divide the EU

Raising visa and border barriers failure of cross-border regionalism

Trade disputes, delayed Russian entry into the WTO

ER3: Zastoi

Continuation of present trends, stagnation of EU-Russia relations

Loose institutions, hollow summits, bureaucratic squabbling between EU and Russia

Lack of cohesion, rival visions of Russia in the EU Failure of the PCA follow-up Strategy (after 2007) Bilateralism with Russia (France, Germany, UK)

Of four common spaces, only some cooperation in the First (economy) and Fourth (humanitarian) frictions in internal security (visas, borders, re-admission) competition in foreign policy (rivalry in the CIS: Ukraine,

Moldova, Belarus, South Caucasus)

Negative trends prevail Perpetuation of the current system in Russia

Reproduced in the 2007-08 election cycle This system is tolerated by the West, due to

Russia’s territory / position/ geopolitics of size Oil/resources / geopolitics of energy Security/ geopolitics of terrorism

Uncertainty in Europe Failure of the constitutional referenda / “Orange revolution” in

the EU Europessimism, future of enlargement uncertain Russia not on top of the priority list No instruments, no leverage no cohesion in EU’s Russia-policy

Facilitating EU-Russia Partnership

A liberal modernization scenario in Russia A global vision for the EU A special role for the bilateral relations

Finnish presidency Traditional partnerships (Germany, France)

Externalities to the EU-Russia relations A drop in the oil prices