Drought and Climate Services in Arizonagmgarfin/2009.garfin.ams.intl.pdf · Lake Powell’s decline...

Drought and Drought and Climate ServicesClimate Servicesin Arizona in Arizona in Arizona in Arizona

The Socio-Economic benefits of National Hydro-Meteorological Services:

Making a Business Case for Support

2009 NWS International Session – 89th AMS Annual Meeting January 9, 2009 ─ Phoenix, AZ, USA

Gregg Garfin, Director for Science Translation

Outreach

OPS

EducationCustomer Service

Product EvaluationContext Evaluation

VisualizationExperimental Products

M d liBasic Research

Applied Research

Observations, Data, Quality ControlModeling

The New Yorker Magazine, September, 1976 Artist: Saul Steinberg

HydroMeteorological

SERVICESSERVICESpartnerships

actionguidelines

planning economicstudies

enhanced visualization

one-stop websitestudies

ecas

ts interpretation

fore

Data, data, data!Decisionmaker Needs

Outreach

OPS

EducationCustomer Service

Product EvaluationContext Evaluation

VisualizationExperimental Products

M d liBasic Research

Applied Research

Observations, Data, Quality ControlModeling

SSeerrvviiiiccee Societyss

http://www.weddingchannel.com/

Fire-Climate Forecasts

20002000--20032003

New York Times

DiscussionDiscussionPresentationsPresentations

C F tC F tConsensus ForecastConsensus Forecast

EvaluationEvaluation20032003--20092009

EvaluationEvaluation

Seasonal Monthly

http://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/outlooks.htm

2000

2002Water HaulingWater Hauling,,Northern Arizona RockyNorthern Arizona Rocky2002 Northern Arizona Rocky Northern Arizona Rocky Mountain Elk FoundationMountain Elk Foundation

Lake Powell’s declineLake Powell’s declineJ. Dohrenwend, USGSJ. Dohrenwend, USGS

Southwest U.S. forest dieSouthwest U.S. forest die--offoffT. Degomez, UA Cooperative ExtensionT. Degomez, UA Cooperative Extension

20022002SoilSoil desiccationdesiccation

Arizona DailyArizona Daily StarStar

Arizona Drought Monitoring Arizona Drought Monitoring T h i l C ittT h i l C ittTechnical CommitteeTechnical Committee

Local DroughtI tImpactGroupsp(LDIGs)

•• 7 = established 7 = established •• 2 = initial meetings 2 = initial meetings •• 5 = near future5 = near future

Northwestern ArizonaNorthwestern Arizona

MA+CT+RIMA+CT+RIBelgiumBelgiumggTaiwanTaiwanLesothoLesothoP 50%P 50%Panama 50%Panama 50%

ButButBut…But…Elevation range: ~2,400 mElevation range: ~2,400 m

azdroughtwatch.orgazdroughtwatch.org

Train-up with agency professionals

Information InfrastructureInformation Infrastructure

Dynamic Drought Index Tool

http://drought.dnr.sc.gov

This is a Drought Information System

Increasing Awareness and Increasing Awareness and Building CapacityBuilding CapacityBuilding CapacityBuilding Capacity

User Needs and PrioritiesUser Needs and Priorities• Concerns

– Sustainability of long-term suppliesSustainability of long term supplies– Agricultural water allocations, frost

Fires insect disturbance invasive species– Fires, insect disturbance, invasive species• Needs and Priorities

M it ti t ET– Monitor consumptive water use – ET, crops– Monitor mountain snow and rain– Forecast monsoon onset, drought– Simple tools alternatives, growth

• Discussion Support

EvaluationEvaluation

• Degree of collaboration Q alit and rele ance of research and• Quality and relevance of research and decision support to stakeholders and researchersresearchers

• Perceived credibility and reliability• Evidence of impact or planning and decision

making (by users)

Miles et al., 2006 – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Gregg GarfinClimate Assessment for the SouthwestInstitute for the Study of Planet Earthy

gmgarfin@email.arizona.edu520-622-9016520 622 9016

www.ispe.arizona.edu/climashttp://www climate noaa gov/cpo pa/risa/http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/