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Delphi and Gall Up Method
Om Prakash Gupta
Introduction
• Delphi method was developed by Project Rand during the 1950-1960s (1959) by Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, and Nicholas Rescher.
• The Delphi method is a systematic, interactive forecasting method
• relies on a panel of experts • based on the principle that forecasts from
experts are more accurate than those from individuals.
Contd…..Gall up method:• Surveys of public opinion as conducted
by George Gallup • A quantitative method of polling public
opinion.
Delphi defined…..•An “organized method” for collecting views and information pertaining to a specific area;
•A method that allows dialogue between geographically separated experts while serving an effective means for learning;
•Gathering a group of experts to forecast events and assess complex issues;
•Collective human intelligence;
•A process of exploring… assessing… and evaluating.
Delphi… why use it?• Automotive Technology• Design new curriculum in social work, nursing, and
medical education;• Metal fabrication;• Literacy campaigns;• Land use policies;• Future roles & organizational arrangements of
hospitals and other health services;• Recreation & Park Administration• To predict the impact of socio-economic
developments on future school systems, training, and research needs.
Delphi Method
• Instead of an individual, a panel of people with diverse backgrounds can develop a more reliable forecast.
• When more people participate, several opinions emerge.
• Manager has to bring the group to a consensus.
Procedure
1. Experts, whose opinions are to be sought, are identified from a variety of knowledgeable people with diversified backgrounds.
2. Their consent for participation is sought and obtained.
3. A written questionnaire is sent to each one of them with a request to respond.
4. The responses are brought together, summarized and redistributed along with some new questions and their responses or opinions are sought again.
5. Members who differ from majority opinion are requested to reconsider their opinion.
6. They are requested to write a rationale, if they feel that their opinion is still appropriate.
7. Responses are summarized again to get refined forecasts.
8. They are mailed again to the same experts with some more new questions and a similar request.
9. Cycle is repeated till a narrow enough consensus is obtained.
Generally it takes 4 rounds to yield satisfactory results.
10. Final results are then distributed to all participants.
Delphi..when is it appropriate?• In situations where there
is no clear-cut resolution of a given policy issue;
• When time & cost constraints make frequent face-to-face meetings difficult to arrange.
• When the heterogeneity of the participants must be preserved and anonymity assured.
What kind of group communication process is desirable in order to explore the problem at hand?Who are the people with expertise on the problem & where are they located?
Delphi… +’s
• Opportunities for large number of people to participate;
• Focus is on “ideas” rather than “individuals”;• Anonymity for participants which make
contributions of ideas a safe activity;• Opportunities for participants to reconsider
their opinions;• Allows for identification of priorities.
Delphi … -’s• Large amount of time to conduct several rounds;• The complexity of data analysis;• The difficulty of maintaining participant enthusiasm throughout
process;• The problem of keeping statements value free and clearly
defined;• Self reporting data is subject to respondent’s biases and
memories;• The bandwagon effect of a majority opinion;• The power of persuasion or prestigious individuals to shape
group opinion;• The vulnerability of group dynamics to manipulation;• The unwillingness of individuals to abandon publicly stated
positions.
Key to Success
• Talent of the coordinator.• Unbiased ness of the coordinator.
Inherent Danger
• Members may feel pressurized to yield to a socially dominant individual.
• Individuals may misinterpret the Delphi exercise to be a policy “decision” tool rather than a policy “analysis” tool;
• Once a Delphi exercise has started there is no way to guarantee or control for a specific pattern of response;
• The Delphi has been used as a political tool rather than an analytical tool.
Preventive Measure
Membership Details Not Revealed.
Gall up method
The Sampling Issue
Selecting a Random Sample
The Number Of Interviews, Or Sample Size, Required
The Interview Itself
The Questions
Conducting the Interview
Interpreting the Results
GALL UP POLL
Conclusion:-
Delphi method:1. Qualitative method.2. Experts are involved.Gall up method:1. Quantitative method.2. Large number of people are involved.
OM PRAKASH GUPTA
POST GRADUATE DIPLOMA IN MANAGEMENT (AGRICULTURE)2010-12 NATIONAL ACADEMY OF AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH MANAGEMENT(ICAR)EMAIL:- OPSTAR123@GMAIL.COMCONTACT NO. :- +917893216298 HYDERABAD-500407
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